正泰电器:整县推进迎新机遇,户用龙头估值有望重塑

（以下内容从天风证券《正泰电器:整县推进迎新机遇,户用龙头估值有望重塑》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhejiang Chint Electrics （601877 CH） 整县推进迎新机遇，户用龙头估值有望重塑 Initiating coverage: county-wide promotion opportunities could lead to revaluation of household PV power leader TP: RMB 52.40 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 较高的经济性叠加政策催化加速分布式光伏发展 2021年我国光伏新增装机55GW，其中分布式29GW，占比53%，首次超过集中式。分布式光伏发展势头迅猛的主要原因在于其较高的经济性，根据我们测算，2021年工商业/户用（不考虑补贴）项目的IRR相比集中式高出1.90%/5.31%。除了经济性较高以外，整县推进、乡村振兴以及拉闸限电等政策加持下，分布式光伏具备较大发展潜力。 Better economic value and policy support accelerate its distributed PV business China’s newly installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity amounted to 55GW in 2021, including 29GW for distributed power at 53% of the total, surpassing centralized power for the first time. The fast growth in distributed PV is due to its better economic value. By our estimates, its commercial and industrial/household project IRRs (excluding subsidies) were 1.90%/5.31% higher than centralized projects last year. In addition to better economic value, distributed PV has high growth potential in view of government support such as county-wide promotions, and rural revitalization and power curb policies. 全国户用光伏龙头，整县推进助力腾飞 -正泰是我国户用光伏龙头，2021H1市占率17.92%，显著高于其他企业。公司紧抓整县推进机遇，签约规模已达5.25GW。 -由于公司电站以自持为主，资产较重，2020年启动了“轻资产”战略，一方面可以加速资金回流，实现电站滚动开发；另一方面，可继续为出售的电站提供运维服务，符合公司提供综合能源服务的长远发展战略。整县推进吸引央国企入局背景下，公司户用电站拥有更多资金实力雄厚的购买方，建设-出售模式有望逐渐步入正轨。 County-wide opportunities drive growth of Chinese household PV leader -Chint is the leading household PV company in China with a market share of 17.92% in 2021H1, significantly higher than other companies; with county-wide promotional opportunities, the company’s contracted segment amounted to 5.25GW. -Chint is asset-heavy as it owns most of its power stations. So it launched an asset-light strategy in 2020 to help accelerate capital returns and realize the comprehensive development of its power station business. The provision of operational and maintenance services after selling off its power stations aligns with its long-term comprehensive services strategy. As whole-county promotions attract the participation of centralized SOEs, Chint’s household power stations have more buyers with financial strength and its construction-sale model could bring it gradually on track. 全流程竞争力构筑正泰户用光伏护城河 从项目流程来看，一个户用光伏电站需要经过前期开发、选材&生产、设计、安装、验收并网、长期运维等关键结点。通过和市场上主流的户用安装商对比，我们发现：1）正泰和天合富家在前期选材&生产方面更具优势。2）前期开发、安装、验收并网依靠完善的渠道布局，正泰的渠道能力优于其他各家。3）主流企业运维系统覆盖的功能差距不大，但正泰在运维团队和运维规模上更具竞争力。综合来看，我们认为公司竞争力覆盖户用光伏电站开发全过程，整县推进机遇下有望实现强者愈强。 Household PV power: whole-process project capability adds competitive edge In terms of the project process, household PV power stations undergo key processes such as preliminary development, material selection and production, design, installation, acceptance and grid connections, and long-term operations and maintenance. In comparing Chint’s business against mainstream household installers, we found that: 1) Chint and Trina Solar have the advantage in material selection and production in the early stage. 2) Pre-development, installation, acceptance and grid integration rely on a solid channel network and Chint’s channel capability is superior to others. 3) There is not much difference in the functions of the operational and maintenance systems of mainstream companies. However, Chint’s operational and maintenance team and business service scale are more competitive. On the whole, we believe its better competitiveness lies in coverage of the whole process of household PV power plant development. We thus expect county-wide promotions to make its business even stronger. 低压电器：渠道稳健增长，直销和海外业务加速扩张 我们在此前报告中曾对公司低压电器业务的成长路径做出三点判断：1）渠道下沉；2）直销模式；3）海外布局。目前来看，公司在以上三方面进展均较为顺利，渠道业务实现稳健增长；直销业务以细分行业头部客户作为重点拓展对象，订单持续突破；海外业务则多点开花。 Low-voltage appliances: channel growth; direct sales and overseas uptrends In previous reports, we selected three parameters to gauge the company’s low-voltage electrical appliance growth trajectory: 1) channel penetration; 2) its direct sales model; and 3) the overseas network. Chint’s progress in these areas has been smooth: the channels are growing steadily; its direct sales focus on segmental industry leaders and orders continue to reach new highs; and its overseas business is thriving. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测和估值：光伏业务方面，我们预计21-23年电池组件、光伏电站EPC、光伏电站运营合计贡献归母净利润5/10/15亿元。参考晶科科技、天合光能，给予2022年26x PE，对应光伏部分市值268亿元。低压电器板块预计将保持稳健增长，21-23年归母净利32、39、47亿元。对比良信股份、宏发股份，给予2022年22x PE，对应市值856亿元。其他业务给予2022年 PE 15x，预计公司2022年合理市值1127亿元，目标价52.4元/股，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation We expect battery modules, PV power station EPC and PV power station operations to generate PV business net profit of RMB500m/1bn/1.5bn in 2021/22/23E; relative to peers Jinko Technology and Trina Solar, we assign to Chint a 26x PE in 2022E, corresponding to a market value of RMB26.8bn for its PV business. In its low-voltage appliance business, we expect steady growth at RMB3.2bn/3.9bn/4.7bn net profit in 2021/22/23E; relative to peers Shanghai Liangxin and Honfa Group, we assign to Chint a 22x PE in 2022E, corresponding to a market value of RMB85.6bn. For its other businesses, we assign a PE of 15x in 2022E. We project a market value of RMB112.7bn and a target price of RMB52.40. We initiate coverage of Chint and rate it a BUY. 风险提示：新冠疫情影响加重风险，原材料涨价风险，行业竞争加剧风险，测算具有一定主观性。 Risks include: worsening Covid-19 pandemic impact; raw material price increases; intensifying competition; and note that our analysis is based on a certain degree of subjectivity. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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