房地产——当旧地产遇到新市民

（以下内容从天风证券《房地产——当旧地产遇到新市民》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Real Estate 当旧地产遇到新市民 New-citizen housing market: affordability and policy interplay a key driver 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 新市民的“前世今生” 新市民最初指的是长期居住在城市并有相对固定工作的农民工，后指代范围逐渐扩大。《关于加强新市民金融服务工作的通知》进一步明确了新市民范围，包括了因各种原因导致的未获当地户籍或获当地户籍不满三年的各类群体，包括但不限于进城务工人员、新就业大中专毕业生等。从群体组成来看，城乡和城城的流动人口仍是新市民主体。从地域分布来看，流动人口主要从东三省向长三角、珠三角、京津冀、成渝等核心城市群迁移，且聚焦一二线城市。从形成原因来看，新市民是我国户籍制度下的特殊产物。能否获得流入地户籍并与当地居民享有同等权利是流动人口转变为“新市民”的重要因素。 ‘New citizens’ redefined The term “new citizens” originally referred to migrant workers who had lived in cities for a long time and held regular jobs. The policy release, Notice on Strengthening Financial Services for New Citizens, broadens the term to cover various groups of people who have not obtained hukou (local household registration) or who have hukou for less than three years. These include urban migrant workers and newly employed college graduates. In composition, urban-rural and urban-urban migration form the main type of new citizens. By geographical distribution, migratory destinations range from the three Eastern provinces to core urban clusters such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Chengdu-Chongqing, primarily the first and second-tier cities. Given how they arise, new citizens are a special product of China’s hukou system. Whether these floating migrants are transformed into new citizens hinges on their ability to obtain hukou and enjoy the same rights as local residents. 新市民住房需求微观拆解：支付能力和户籍政策的双向博弈 新市民群体的住房需求影响因素：1) 收入/房价等经济因素；2) 户籍制度——教育/医疗/住房/养老等社会福利和权益与户籍紧密绑定，即本、外地居民所享受的公共服务不均等增加新市民定居的隐形成本。因此，新市民群体住房需求的背后，是支付能力和户籍政策的双向博弈。在房价水平高、收入水平低、落户难度大、隐形定居成本高的情况下，流动人口普遍倾向于在流入地租房而不是购房。根据北大光华2019年抽样调查数据，进城务工人员购买住房比例仅为19.5%，考虑到进城务工人员是新市民的绝大部分组成，我们估算目前新市民群体租房/购房比例约为8:2。 New citizens’ housing demand tied to affordability and the hukou system Their housing demand is affected by: 1) the economics of income vs housing prices and 2) the hukou system: social welfare and rights such as in education, medical care, housing and pension are closely tied to hukou; inequitable public services for locals vs non-locals increase hidden settlement costs. Hence, what drives new citizens’ housing demand is the interplay of affordability and the hukou policy. Faced with high housing prices, low income levels, the difficulty of obtaining household registration and high hidden settlement costs, the floating population would rent rather than buy homes. Survey data by Peking University Guanghua in 2019 shows that only 19.5% of urban migrant workers purchase homes. Considering that migrant workers make up the vast majority of new citizens, we estimate the current rent-buy ratio of new citizens is 8:2. 新市民住房需求宏观市场：万亿空间的释放可能 据相关研究及团队测算结果，流动人口的消费收入弹性（0.70）显著低于城镇人口的消费收入弹性（0.87），流动人口市民化可以释放该部分人群的消费需求。测算结果显示，乐观情况下，消费弹性在五年内释放完成，带动的消费增量可达2420亿元，约占GDP的0.16%；保守情况下，消费弹性在十年内释放完成，消费增量可达5679亿元，约占GDP的0.29%，对于拉动内需意义积极。从住房模式来看，我们估算目前流动人口的租房/购房比例为8:2，伴随市民化进程带来的流动人口购房意愿提升，在市民化完成后流动人口的租房/购房比例变为7:3和6:4的两种假设下，测算结果显示，乐观情况下购房需求释放带来的金额增量在两种租购比例下分别为14866亿元和29006亿元；保守情况下分别为10016亿元和19180亿元。从住房面积来看，在市民化完成后流动人口的租购比变为7:3和6:4的两种假设下，测算结果显示，乐观情况下流动人口购房需求（面积）增量分别为12.55亿平和25.10亿平；保守情况下分别为13.19亿平和26.38亿平。购房面积增量对应金额远高于住房消费可释放金额增量，新市民理想需求与现实购买力间存在鸿沟。 New citizens market: housing demand potential could amount to RMB trillions Based on research data and our calculations, the floating population’s consumption income elasticity (0.70) is much lower than that of the urban population (0.87); and “citizenship” (i.e. permanent residency) lifts consumption demand in the floating population. Under our optimistic scenario, consumption elasticity kicks in within five years and incremental consumption amounts to RMB242bn, about 0.16% of GDP; under our pessimistic scenario, consumption elasticity kicks in within 10 years and incremental consumption amounts to RMB567.9bn, about 0.29% of GDP, providing a significant demand catalyst. Incremental market potential: Our model estimates a 8:2 rent-purchase ratio for the floating population and ‘citizenship’ increases the willingness to buy. We assume that this would change the rent-buy ratios to (1) 7:3 and (2) 6:4. -Under our optimistic scenario, incremental housing demand would rise to (1) RMB1.49tr and (2) RMB2.9tr; while under our pessimistic scenario, incremental demand would come to (1) RMB1tr and (2) RMB1.92tr. -Under our optimistic scenario, incremental housing demand would amount to (1) 1.26bn sqm and (2) 2.51bn sqm; while under our pessimistic scenario, incremental housing demand would amount to (1) 1.32bn sqm and (2) 2.64bn sqm. Thus, potential incremental housing demand is much higher in terms of area than price, indicating a gap between new citizens’ ideal demand and their real purchasing power. 未来政策空间如何打开：户籍限制的合理放宽和多层次的住房保障 帮助新市民真正融入城市是释放新市民需求、继而弥补其理想需求与现实购买力差异的首要前提。我们认为新市民的住房安排，是从兜底、过渡、安居到改善等一系列的制度框架，传统商品房将针对其改善性需求滞后打开。在当前阶段，放宽公租房申请条件、继续加大保障性租赁住房和公租房供给将是满足新市民安居需求的重要抓手；降低新市民获取金融服务难度或为短期内弥补新市民理想需求与现实购买力差异的最可行方法。 Policy as a demand driver: hukou liberalization and multi-factor housing security The primary prerequisites that drive new citizens’ incremental housing demand relate to how well they integrate into city life and how they bridge the gap between ideal demand and real purchasing power. To make a new home, new citizens undergo institutional mechanisms that relate to disposable cash, transition, settlement and life improvement. What is available to them to fulfill their life improvement requirements is commercially available housing. The relaxing of application criteria for public rental housing and increasing supply of subsidized rental and public housing would be key starting points to meet the housing needs of new citizens. This could be the most feasible way to reduce their difficulties in accessing financial services and help bridge the gap between their ideal demand and purchasing power in the short term. 投资建议 / Investment ideas 把握政策结构性宽松的 beta 与收并购的 alpha 投资建议：未来行业beta取决于行业结构调整、产能出清节奏和政策托底力度；alpha在于收并购对重点房企资产负债表和利润率的修复、逆周期加杠杆的精准度、围绕住房场景价值的长期挖掘。持续推荐：1）优质龙头：金地集团、保利发展、万科A、龙湖集团、招商蛇口；2）优质成长：金科股份、新城控股、中南建设、旭辉控股集团；3）优质物管：碧桂园服务、招商积余、保利物业、旭辉永升服务。 Investment ideas: leverage structural policy liberalization beta and M&A alpha Future industry beta could improve on structural industry tweaks, faster production capacity clearance and policy support, while key real estate companies’ alpha could improve on M&A in terms of repairing balance sheets, profit margins, accurate counter-cyclical leverage and long-term valuations with widening housing scenarios. We maintain our recommendations based on the following investment themes: Quality leaders - Gemdale (600383 CH, BUY) - Poly Developments and Holdings (600048 CH, BUY) - China Vanke (000002 CH, BUY) - Longfor Group (0960 HK, BUY) - China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone (001979 CH, BUY) Quality growth - Jinke Property Group. (000656 CH, BUY) - Seazen Holdings (601155 CH, BUY) - Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction (000961 CH, BUY) - CIFI Holdings (0884 HK, BUY) Quality property management - Country Garden Services (6098 HK, BUY) - China Merchants Property Operations & Services (001914 CH, BUY) - Poly Property Services (6049 HK, BUY) - CIFI Ever Sunshine Services (1995 HK, BUY) 风险提示：行业信用风险蔓延；行业销售下行超预期；因城施策力度不及预期；主观测算风险 Risks include: widening industry credit market risks; worse-than-expected decline in industry sales; worse-than-expected city-specific policies; and risks related to subjective calculations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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