坚朗五金:品类扩充渠道下沉,平台赋能人效提升

（以下内容从天风证券《坚朗五金:品类扩充渠道下沉,平台赋能人效提升》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products (002791 CH) 品类扩充渠道下沉，平台赋能人效提升 Initiating coverage: growing product range, sales channel penetration, platform and staff efficiency ratio TP: RMB125.30 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 品类+渠道支撑业绩向上，未来市占率提升空间广阔 公司作为建筑五金上市龙头，多品类和渠道布局支撑业绩高增长，市占率有望提升：1）短期看，直销渠道下沉及品类扩充有望助力公司在超万亿的建筑五金及建筑配套件市场提升市占率；2）中期看，伴随地产新房需求减弱，未来公司将逐步开拓医院、酒店、学校等新销售场景，实现收入结构多元化；3）长期看，依托信息化平台搭建以及线上渠道优势，公司有望打通售后服务并增强客户粘性，对标海外龙头，公司人均效能提升空间广阔 Wide product range and channels drive profit and potential market share growth Construction hardware market leader Kinlong’s multi-category products and channel network support high performance growth. We expect the company’s market share to increase over time: -In the short term: direct sales channel penetration and product category expansion could expand market share in the trillion-RMB construction hardware and construction accessories segment. -In the medium term: as demand weakens for new real estate properties, Kinlong would diversify its income structure by incorporating new sales channels like hospitals, hotels and schools. -In the long term: using its data platform and online channel advantages, we expect the company to build up after-sales services to enhance customer stickiness; benchmarked against foreign market leaders, Kinlong’s per-capita efficiency has much growth potential. 品类持续扩充不止步，打造建筑配套件集成供应平台 公司依托传统建筑五金不断向其他建筑配套件延伸，涵盖智能家居、卫浴、防水、涂料等多个领域，其经营产品品类一共130个，产品SKU超2万种，经测算到25年，传统建筑五金市场合计达1144亿元，22-25年CAGR为4.73%，相关配套市场有望达万亿。公司新品类持续放量，子公司坚朗海贝斯20年实现净利润3.9亿元，同比+57.2%；从需求来看，行业内小B客户居多使定制化产品需求较高，公司通过品类扩充，能满足小B客户的一站式采购需求；从供给来看，建筑五金行业竞争格局分散，公司作为行业龙头，市占率仅7.4%（仅考虑传统建筑五金，若考虑多品类市场，实际市占率更低），未来有望凭借规模优势提升行业集中度，从而提高市占率。 Integrated supply platform for building accessories; growing product categories From its traditional building hardware business, Kinlong is expanding to related accessories like smart homes, bathrooms, waterproofing and painting. It offers 130 product categories and over 20,000 SKUs. The estimate hardware segment could reach RMB114.4bn in 2025E, with a CAGR of 4.73% over 2022-25E, while its support market could amount to RMB1tr. Volumes are rising in its new product categories. Subsidiary Kinlong Haibeis generated net profit of RMB390m in 2020, up 57.2% yoy. Demand: among small B2B customers, demand for customized products is high and Kinlong is able to meet their one-stop-shop needs. Supply: the construction hardware industry has a scattered competitive structure. Kinlong as industry leader has a market share of only 7.4% (counting only traditional construction hardware companies; if we include multiple categories, its actual market share would be even smaller). In the future, its scale advantage could help expand market share and thereby increase the industry concentration. 全国化的直销渠道布局，客户结构有望实现多元化 公司积极拓展海内外市场，截止21年末拥有超过700个销售网点，销售团队达6500人以上，销售网点实现除西藏以外的地级市全覆盖，未来将向毛利较高的县城市场持续发力；在客户结构方面，21年来自地产端收入占比为60%左右，公司有望依托渠道下沉开拓学校、酒店、医院等新的集成销售场景，从而降低地产收入占比，分散资金风险并改善现金流。 Nationalized direct sales channel network and diverse customer structure The company is expanding its business domestically and globally. It has over 700 sales outlets and a sales team of more than 6,500 people as of end-2021. Its sales outlets fully cover prefecture-level cities, except Tibet. In the future, we expect to see county expansion and higher gross profit. Based on its customer structure, the proportion of income from real estate in 2021 accounted for about 60%. The company could focus on channel penetration to develop new integrated sales scenarios such as schools, hotels and hospitals. This would reduce the proportion of real estate income, diversify capital risks and improve cash flow. 信息化平台赋能管理效率提升，人均效能提升仍可期 2014年引入美国Oracle甲骨文系统，较早进行信息化迭代升级，在供应链管理、信息化水平方面具有先发优势。打造“客户经理+产品经理+服务”构成的“铁三角”，充分发挥团队协同优势，对比美国家得宝、劳氏以及德国伍尔特，公司具备成长为平台式龙头潜力。16-21年人均创收由84万/人增至150万/人，对标伍尔特20年313万/人，未来仍有较大提升空间。 Data platform lifts management efficiency and could raise per-capita efficiency Kinlong introduced the Oracle data system in 2014 after iterative informatization upgrades.This provided first-mover advantage in supply chain management via informatization. Kinlong’s core tripartite sales strategy of “customer managers, product managers and services” give full play to its teamwork synergy. Compared against Home Depot in the US, Lowe‘s and Würth in Germany, we believe Kinlong has the potential to become a platform leader. Its per-capita income increased from RMB840,000 to RMB1.5m over 2016-21; next to Würth‘s RMB3.13m per-capita income in 2020, Kinlong has much headroom for growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 始于五金，不止于五金，维持“买入”评级 截止20年，公司作为国内A股上市公司中建筑配套件品类最多的建筑五金行业龙头，随着规模效应逐步显现，业绩增长仍具备弹性。我们预计公司21-23年归母净利分别为9.0/11.5/15.6亿元，对应EPS分别为2.80/3.58/4.86元，参考可比公司22年平均PE23x，认可给予公司22年35x PE，对应目标价125.3元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation Construction hardware market leader Kinlong offers the widest range of building accessories among A-share companies as of 2020. It benefits from gradual scale-up effects and growing profit elasticity. We expect net profit to arrive at RMB900m/1.15bn/ 1.56bn in 2021/22/23E, corresponding to RMB2.80/3.58/4.86 EPS. Relative to a 23x average peer PE in 2022E, we assign to Kinlong a 35x PE, which derives our target price of RMB125.30. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：地产政策持续收紧、原材料价格大幅上涨、品类扩充进度不及预期。 Risks include: real estate policy tightening; sharp rise in raw material prices; and slower category expansion than expected. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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