电力设备——智能电动车ODM:有望占领中低端市场,短期看ODM放量,中期看为Tier1成长创机遇

（以下内容从天风证券《电力设备——智能电动车ODM:有望占领中低端市场,短期看ODM放量,中期看为Tier1成长创机遇》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Electrical Equipment 智能电动车ODM：有望占领中低端市场，短期看ODM放量，中期看为Tier1成长创机遇 Smart EV ODMs: we expect them to capture the low-end and mid-range markets; short-term ODM rollouts and medium-term growth opportunities for tier-1 players 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 复盘智能手机行业发现，行业进程中的两大本质改变，即“核心环节-主板开发的简化”及“横向一体化的新合作模式”，推动ODM模式成为手机行业重要组成部分；在智能电动车领域，因电动化简化了“核心环节-三大件”，智能化催生了“Tier 0.5新合作模式”，ODM模式有望在智能电动车行业复刻。 简化核心环节，降低行业门槛 （手机核心环节 - 主板开发，汽车核心环节 -“三大件”） 手机：行业初始阶段，核心环节为主板开发，其软硬件开发难关保证行业高进入门槛；联发科时刻到来，其交钥匙方案简化核心环节-主板开发，且推动核心环节可外包，造手机门槛降低 汽车：燃油车时代，核心环节为发动机、变速箱、底盘“三大件”，其技术壁垒保证行业高进入门槛；电动化时代到来，电驱系统简化核心环节-三电系统，且推动核心环节可外采，造车门槛降低 Industry review: our key findings Smartphones: two crucial changes have raised the profile of original design manufacturers (ODMs) in the mobile phone industry: (1) simplified motherboard development and (2) new cooperation models based on horizontal integration. Smart EVs: we expect the ODM model to be replicated in the smart electric vehicle (EV) industry as well. Electrification has streamlined the three core parts of engine, transmission and chassis, and intelligentization has spawned a new model of cooperation with “tier-0.5” suppliers. Simplifying core parts and lowering industry thresholds: mobile phone motherboards and smart EVs’ three core components Mobile phones: in the industry’s initial development phase, the motherboard posed both hardware and software challenges, creating high entry barriers. MediaTek‘s turnkey solutions simplify motherboard development and its outsourcing business lowers the entry threshold for mobile phone manufacturers. Autos: internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have three core components – engine, gearbox and chassis – with high technical requirements that elevate the entry barrier. In the era of electrification, the electric drivetrain’s simplified set-up enables the three core parts to be outsourced, which lowers the entry barrier for car manufacturers. 新合作模式涌现，供应链管理难度降低（手机-IDH/ODM模式，汽车-Tier 0.5模式） 手机：联发科的交钥匙方案引领手机产业链由初始阶段的垂直一体化转向横向一体化（芯片-IDH-终端厂商），IDH合作模式涌现，IDH负责PCBA主板的开发集成，下游终端厂商供应链管理难度降低。 汽车：智能化引领电子电气架构集中化，整车厂将软硬件解耦，亲自负责域控制器的软件开发，并越过Tier1直接委托Tier2供应商进行硬件总成，实行Tier 0.5合作模式，层级变扁平，且国内Tier 2在响应速度、配套服务方面优势明显，供应链管理难度降低。 New cooperation models reduce supply chain management difficulties: mobile phones’ IDH/ODM and automobiles’ tier-0.5 suppliers Mobile phones: MediaTek’s turnkey solutions cover the mobile phone supply chain from vertical integration in the initial stage to horizontal integration (chip-IDH-terminal manufacturers). The new independent design houses (IDH) cooperation model handles the development and integration of PCBA motherboards, reducing supply chain management difficulties for downstream terminal manufacturers. Autos: intelligentization has led to centralized electronic and electrical architecture. OEMs decouple software from hardware: they would personally handle software development domain control while entrusting hardware assembly to tier-2 suppliers, bypassing tier-1 suppliers; meanwhile, the new tier-0.5 cooperation model has further leveled the field. Chinese tier-2 suppliers hold advantages such as response speed and support services, reducing supply chain management issues. ODM厂商成为行业重要组成部分 手机：相较IDH（仅研发设计），ODM模式全面覆盖手机的研发设计、生产制造和供应链管理，竞争门槛高，并且能够通过对研发、生产、供应链管理的全产业链成本把控，提升利润率。2020年ODM/IDH智能手机出货渗透率达36% ，ODM厂商已成为手机行业重要组成部分。 汽车：通过滑板底盘和一体化压铸可相对轻松的完成汽车下体和上体框架的制造，实现汽车机械制造与电子制造的解耦，剩下部分主要为汽车电子制造，而在电子制造领域ODM模式已得到充分验证，ODM有望成为智能电动车行业的重要组成部分。 ODMs have become key participants in the industry Mobile phones: compared with IDHs (which handle only R&D and design), ODMs cover a wider business and handle R&D and design, manufacturing and supply chain management of mobile phones, which have high competitive barriers. This allows them to manage costs via entire supply chain R&D, production and supply chain management, which helps improve profit margins. The penetration rate of ODM/IDH in smartphone shipments was 36% in 2020. ODMs have become key players in the mobile phone industry. Autos: the manufacturing of the lower and upper body frames of automobiles can be done more easily when using skateboard chassis and integrated die-casting. This has been enabled by decoupling electronics and machinery from the automotive manufacturing process. This verifies ODMs as key players in the smart EV industry. In the smartphone industry, ODMs dominate the low-end RMB1,000-device market by virtue of their efficient development of platform-based products and their cost advantages. Smart EV ODMs also efficiently develop and reduce costs via the EV platform, preempting market trends by leapfrogging intelligent configurations. In the low to mid-market, we expect a global ODM model market size of more than RMB500bn in 2027E, with China generating about RMB250bn. 智能手机行业，ODM厂商凭借对平台化产品的高效开发及其成本优势统治中低端千元机市场；智能电动车ODM厂商亦可通过整车平台高效开发、降低成本，凭借越级智能化配置抢占中低端市场，预计2027年全球ODM车型市场空间5000亿元+，中国约2500亿元。 智能电动车DOM厂商可通过模块标准化的整车平台整合高集成度电驱系统、滑板底盘、一体化压铸车身等系统，提升零部件高通用率，实现高效开发、降低成本；另外可通过硬件标准化&软件通用化降低单车智能化成本，在低价格带凭借越级智能化配置保证ODM车型的竞争优势。 2021年5-15万元的BEV乘用车销量占比由2020年的38%下降至30%，而将燃油车纳入考虑后此价格带乘用车销量占比约为60%，结构显著失衡的原因在于此价格带受限于成本优质电动供给稀缺，智能电动车ODM有望凭借成本优势为此价格带输送优质车型，以领先智能化水平抢占市场。 通过假设21-27年新能源汽车销量、5-15万元价格带的销量占比、此价格带中ODM车型占比等，按照ODM车型平均价格10万元测算，我们预计2027年全球ODM车型市场空间5000亿元+，中国ODM车型市场空间约2500亿元。 Smart EV ODMs provide highly integrated electric drivetrain systems via skateboard chassis, integrated die-casting body and other systems through a modular vehicle platform. This improves the high common rate of components, achieves efficient development and reduces costs. Hardware standardization and software generalization reduce per-vehicle intelligentization cost and give a competitive advantage to ODM models, allowing them to leapfrog intelligent configurations within the low price band. The proportion of RMB50,000-150,000 BEV passenger car sales fell from 38% in 2020 to 30% in 2021. Considering that ICE passenger cars in this price range account for about 60% of total sales, the market is decidedly lopsided. We attribute this to the scarce supply of cost-effective and high-quality electronics. We expect smart EV ODMs to use cost advantages to deliver high-quality models in this price band and to lead the market in intelligentization. Based on our assumptions for NEV sales volumes over 2021-27E, the proportion of RMB50,000-150,000 vehicle sales, the proportion of ODM models in this price range, and an average ODM model price of RMB100,000, we expect global sales of ODM models will amount to more than RMB500bn, with China’s ODM models generating about RMB250bn in 2027E. 投资建议 / Investment ideas 投资建议 智能电动车ODM厂商将率先受益于行业大趋势；而更深远的意义则在于，因预计智能电动车ODM行业下游较传统整车行业更为集中，且未与外资头部供应商深度合作，ODM发展有望带来供应链体系重构，为能够紧密绑定ODM的国产供应商提供高速放量的良机。 看好立讯精密（电子团队覆盖）、拓普集团（汽车团队覆盖）。 立讯精密：垂直一体化消费电子精密制造龙头，具有ODM经验及客户资源，已布局汽车线束、连接器、智能座舱、自动驾驶等智能电动车核心零部件，并与具备整车工程&制造能力的奇瑞新能源合资从事智能电动车ODM。预计2027年合资公司智能电动车ODM收入体量约1000亿元，利润体量约100亿元；立讯以ODM为出海口，志在快速成长为全球前十大Tier 1之一，Tier 1业务15年CAGR+28%。 拓普集团：积极转型顺应智能电动化浪潮，并通过与特斯拉的合作打通Tier 0.5模式，凭借新势力全覆盖策略积累了ODM客户资源，并且拓普打造了包括一体化压铸，滑板底盘等业务在内的智能电动车增量零部件平台，有望为ODM厂商全面对接供货。预计2027年拓普可配套ODM车型收入约200亿元，为公司2021年收入的1.7倍，可配套ODM车型利润约20亿元，为2021年利润的2.0倍。 Investment ideas We expect smart EV ODMs to be the first to benefit from industry growth. Crucially, we expect a more concentrated downstream market for smart EV ODMs than ICE, as there is a lack of in-depth cooperation with leading foreign suppliers. Growth in this market segment could lead a supply chain restructure and bring opportunities for domestic suppliers to deepen ties with ODMs so as to speed up volume growth. We like Luxshare Precision Industry and Ningbo Tuopu Group: -Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH, BUY): a vertically integrated consumer electronics precision manufacturing leader, with ODM experience and customer resources. It covers core components for smart EVs such as automotive wiring harnesses, connectors, smart cockpits and autonomous driving, and has whole-vehicle engineering and manufacturing capabilities. It collaborates on smart EV ODM in the Chery New Energy JV. We expect the JV’s smart EV ODM revenue to amount to RMB100bn by 2027E, with profit at about RMB10bn. ODM is Luxshare’s key export business and it aims to be included in the global tier-1 top 10, with a tier-1 business 15-year CAGR of +28%. -Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689 CH, BUY): it is restructuring its business to ride the intelligent electrification wave. Cooperation with Tesla has led to the tier-0.5 model, based on its full-coverage new energy strategy to accumulate ODM customer resources. Tuopu has also created a comprehensive platform to supply smart EV parts to ODMs, including integrated die-casting and skateboard chassis. We expect revenue from its ODM support business to reach RMB20bn in 2027E (1.7x 2021 revenue), with profit at about RMB2bn (2.0x 2021 profit). 风险提示：智能电动车ODM厂商客户拓展不及预期，智能电动车ODM厂商整车平台开发不及预期，ODM智能电动车成本&智能化优势不及预期，测算具有一定主观性。 Risks include: slower-than-expected customer expansion for smart EV ODMs; less-than-expected development of the vehicle platform for smart EV ODMs; lower-than-expected cost and intelligent advantages for smart EV ODMs; and our calculations are subjective to a degree. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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