新天绿能: 天然气+风电双轮驱动,多方加码助力稳步成长

（以下内容从天风证券《新天绿能: 天然气+风电双轮驱动,多方加码助力稳步成长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Suntien Green Energy (600956 CH) 天然气+风电双轮驱动，多方加码助力稳步成长 Initiating coverage: dual-core natural gas and wind power business; multi-form energy projects strengthen growth TP: RMB16.40 ACCUMULATE (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 简介：“天然气+风电”双轮驱动的清洁能源公司 公司为河北省清洁能源产业上市平台，主营天然气销售业务及风力发电业务。公司2021年实现天然气售气量38.1亿立方米，风电发电量135.7亿千瓦时；伴随主营业务规模快速扩张，公司营收规模与净利润持续增加，2021年前三季度营业收入107.01亿元，同比增长28.64%，归母净利润15.32亿元，同比增长62.67%。 A clean energy company with twin core drivers of natural gas and wind power Suntien provides a listed platform for Hebei Province’s clean energy market. Its dual-core business centers on natural gas sales and wind power generation. Sales of natural gas amounted to 3.81bn cu m while those of wind power generation came to 13.57bn kWh in 2021. Its rapid business scale increase is driving revenue and net profit uptrends. Revenue arrived at RMB10.7bn in 1-3Q21, up 28.64% yoy, while net profit was RMB1.53bn, up 62.67% yoy. 天然气：管网工程助力市场拓展，唐山LNG项目战略性凸显 公司持续推进管网建设，下游市场快速拓展，业务布局不断完善。公司持续推进基建工程建设，截至2021年6月30日，公司累计运营管线长度达7087.99公里。依托于管线运营长度及覆盖范围优势，公司下游市场快速拓展，天然气业务布局不断完善。截至2021年6月30日，公司累计拥有用户441284户，运营CNG母站7座、CNG子站6座、LNG加注站3座、L-CNG合建站2座。公司售气量持续增长，天然气业务长期向好。 唐山LNG项目战略意义凸显，催化业绩高增。京津冀地区天然气消费不均衡性突出，调峰需求较大。公司新建唐山LNG项目，供应及调峰能力辐射整个京津冀地区，战略意义显著。同时该项目经济效益可观，投产后预计贡献归母净利润达7.2亿元，公司业绩有望显著增长。 Natural gas pipeline projects expand the market, including strategic Tangshan Suntien is promoting its pipeline network construction business and has expanded its downstream market presence and improved the product mix. In infrastructure construction projects, its cumulative operational pipeline length reached 7,087.99km as of 30 June 2021. Its competitive advantages of pipeline operation length and business footprint have fueled fast growth in its downstream market and helped improve its natural gas business structure. It counts 441,284 customers, operates 7 CNG mother stations, 6 CNG substations, 3 LNG refilling stations and 2 L-CNG co-constructed stations as of 30 June 2021. In view of its growing natural gas sales, we believe business will keep improving in the long term. The Tangshan LNG project holds strategic significance and lifts profitability. Natural gas consumption is not well spread out across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, giving rise to large demand for peak shaving. Suntien’s newly built Tangshan LNG project is strategically significant in its supply and peak shaving capabilities that cover the entire Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. And it is lucrative as well. Once operation commences, it could contribute RMB720m to net profit, raising total profit growth significantly. 可再生能源：风电领跑，多类型新能源项目布局 公司享受新能源行业政策及降本红利，风电业务规模高速扩张。风电项目成本下降，其红利向运营商转移，公司抓住机遇，风电装机规模高速扩张，截至2021年6月30日，公司风电控股装机容量达5656.45MW，项目覆盖全国多个省份。同时，依托于全国多省份项目布局及项目所在地的优质风能资源，公司风电可利用小时数高于平均水平，发电水平维持高位。 多类型新能源项目布局，公司成长属性强化。截至2020年12月31日，公司累计运营光伏项目规模达118.59MW，控股光伏容量持续增加。另外，公司加码氢能及储能赛道，一方面布局新能源制氢项目，未来天然气+风电（光伏）两大主营业务有望通过氢能产业链连接，大幅激发公司增长潜力；另一方面，公司参股投资建设河北丰宁抽水蓄能电站项目，考虑到当前调峰、填谷等需求及储能领域发展态势，公司成长性有望进一步强化。 Renewable energy business: first wind projects, then other forms of clean energy Supported by China’s new energy policies and cost reduction, the company’s wind power business scale has risen rapidly. Wind power project cost is falling and the benefits get transferred to operators. The company took the opportunity to quickly expand installed wind power capacity and its total equity-held wind power installed capacity amounts to 5,656.45MW as of 30 June 2021. Due to its broad network of projects spanning many provinces across China and high-quality wind energy resources at its project sites, Suntien’s available wind energy hours are higher than average, sustaining its high power generation rates. Having multi-form new energy projects aids Suntien’s growth stability. Its cumulative operating solar power projects produced 118.59MW as of 31 Dec 2020 and its equity-held solar capacity is expanding. In addition, it increased investments into hydrogen energy and energy storage. Suntien is able to deploy existing resources into hydrogen production projects while connecting its two main businesses of natural gas and wind power (and solar) to the hydrogen energy supply chain to expand total growth potential. At the same time, considering current power demand peaks and valleys, as well as energy storage market developments, its investment into the Hebei Fengning pumped storage power plant project could help future growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值：公司2021-2023年预计可实现营业收入153.1、163.6和223.8亿元，归母净利润21.8、22.6和29.4亿元。给予公司2023年目标价16.4元，给予“增持”评级。 Profit forecast and risks: We expect Suntien to generate revenue of RMB15.31bn/16.36bn/22.38bn and net profit of RMB2.18bn/2.26bn/2.94bn in 2021/22/23E. We initiate coverage with an ACCUMULATE rating and a target price of RMB16.40 in 2023E. 风险提示：天然气价格波动，唐山LNG项目建设或运营状况不及预期，项目所在地新能源政策变动，储备项目推进情况不及预期，项目所在地电力消纳能力不足等。 Risks include: natural gas price volatility; construction or operations of the Tangshan LNG project fall below expectations; changes in new energy policies affecting project locations adversely; weaker progress in reserve projects than expected; and insufficient power consumption at its project locations. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）