电力设备——储能温控行业: 短期受益行业高增速,中期看好公司非标化优势

（以下内容从天风证券《电力设备——储能温控行业: 短期受益行业高增速,中期看好公司非标化优势》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Electrical Equipment 储能温控行业：短期受益行业高增速，中期看好公司非标化优势 Energy storage temperature controls: industry growth to fuel short-term prospects while company differentiation could determine the medium-term trajectory 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 2021年以来，储能行业进入新一轮爆发期，据GGII统计，2021年国内储能电池出货量48GWh，同比增长2.6倍；我们预计，21-25年全球储能装机量CAGR有望达到+92.2%。本篇报告将聚焦储能行业的细分赛道——储能温控行业，挖掘储能行业爆发背景下的投资机会。 为什么储能系统需要温控？ 储能温控是防止储能系统容量衰减、寿命减短、热失控的关键。储能系统电池数目多、电池容量和功率大，需要进行有效的电池热管理，否则可能导致电池充放电性能、容量和寿命等下降，甚至引发热失控，造成安全事故。此外，发电侧储能系统大容量、调峰调频用储能系统电池高倍率的大趋势下，未来储能温控的重要性将不断上升。 China’s energy storage industry entered a robust growth cycle last year. Battery shipments amounted to 48GWh in 2021, up 2.6x yoy, according to GGII data. We forecast a global energy storage installed capacity CAGR of over 92.2% in 2021-25E. This presentation examines the temperature control business segment of the energy storage industry and its competitive market structure. Why would energy storage systems need temperature controls? Temperature controls are the key to preventing capacity decay, lifespan contraction and thermal runaway in energy storage systems. An energy storage system with high battery capacity and power would comprise a large number of batteries, so effective battery thermal management is essential. Without it, battery charge and discharge performance, capacity or lifespan could decline, and accidents are a risk due to thermal runaway. The importance of energy storage temperature controls will continue to rise in the future as energy storage system capacities increase in power and the number of cells on the need to regulate grid peaks and frequency rates. 储能温控的技术趋势？ 主流技术：目前储能系统温控主要采用风冷、液冷，在研技术有热管冷却、相变材料冷却，核心区别在散热速率和成本。风冷的结构简单，成本低，但散热速率最低；液冷散热速率高于风冷，但结构更复杂，成本更高于风冷。热管冷却和相变材料冷却仍在实验室阶段，散热速率更高，但成本也更高。考虑到研发、新技术测试认证的时间，我们认为3-5年内实现商业化的可能性不大。 技术趋势：预计中期层面液冷占比将上升，但风冷仍会有其应用场景。当前储能温控以风冷为主，主要系带电量、功率密度相对较小的项目装机占比高；但中期预计液冷占比将提升，主要系未来储能项目的发热量将不断提升，风冷无法满足部分项目散热需求。但技术方向的选择与项目所处环境、项目发热量也有关系，中期来看两种技术仍会有其应用场景。 What are the key technological trends in energy storage temperature controls? Key technologies: energy storage temperature controls mainly involve air and liquid cooling technologies; and other cooling technologies under R&D include heat pipes and phase change materials (PCM). The methods vary in heat dissipation rates and costs. Air cooling systems are simple in structure and low-cost but have the lowest heat dissipation rates, while liquid cooling has a higher heat dissipation rate but a more complex structure and costs more than air cooling. Heat pipes and PCM, which are in the laboratory stage, offer higher heat dissipation rates but at higher cost. Factoring in time for the R&D process, testing and the certification of new technologies, we believe that commercialization within 3-5 years is unlikely. Trends: we expect liquid cooling systems’ market share will increase in the medium term, although air cooling applications continue to be relevant. Air cooling is mainly used in energy storage projects that require lower power and power density. We expect the proportion of liquid cooling will increase in the medium term because the calorific value of future energy storage projects would continue to increase and air cooling is insufficient for some types of projects. However, choosing which technology also depends on the project environment and the heat generated. We believe these two technologies will remain relevant in the medium term. 全球储能温控的中期市场空间？ 核心假设：1）ASP：21年单GWh风冷、液冷的价值量约3000、9000万元，年降5%；2）21、25年装机量及液冷占比：发电侧装机量14/239GWh，液冷占比30%/55%；电网侧装机量2/25GWh，液冷占比15%/35%；工商业装机量2/57GWh，液冷占比15%/30%；户用装机量4/77GWh，液冷占比10%/20%；通信基站装机量10/22GWh，液冷占比10%/25%。 市场空间：预计21、25年分别为14/211亿元，4年CAGR+95.9%，高于全球储能装机量。结合我们的核心，预计21年全球市场空间14亿元，风冷、液冷分别占比80%/20%；25年市场空间211亿元，风冷、液冷分别占比58%/42%；21-25年CAGR达92%。 How large do you envision the potential global energy storage temperature control markets to be in the medium term? Core assumptions: 1) ASP: air cooling value per GWh at RMB30m and liquid cooling per GWh at RMB90m as of 2021, falling annually by 5%. 2) Segmental breakdown of installed capacities vs liquid cooling market shares in 2021/25E: power generation: 14/239GWh vs 30%/55%; grid: 2/25GWh vs 15%/35%; industrial and commercial: 2/57GWh vs 15%/30%; households: 4/77GWh vs 10%/20%; and communication base stations: 10/22GWh vs 10%/25%. Market sizes: we estimate energy storage temperature control global markets at RMB1.4bn/21.1bn in 2021/25E, a four-year CAGR of over 95.9%, faster than global energy storage systems’ installed capacity growth. Our numbers show a global energy storage temperature control market size of RMB1.4bn in 2021, with air/liquid cooling systems accounting for 80%/20%. We estimate the market will expand to RMB21.1bn in 2025E, with the air/liquid cooling segments accounting for 58%/42%, and a CAGR of 92% over 2021-25E. -储能温控行业的投资机会？ 1）行业壁垒：探讨“谁能做储能温控产品”问题意义不大，在高相似性行业中已形成规模并有技术积累的企业切入储能温控行业的生产难度不高；行业壁垒来自非标化优势（包括预制化、模块化、定制化、智能化能力）。储能温控与精密空调、工业制冷设备等具有较高的技术要求相似性（均需实现对工业设备的高精度温湿度控制），因此这些行业中已有技术积累的企业切入储能温控行业的技术难度不高，分析行业壁垒需要从预制化、模块化、定制化、智能化（分别对应对项目的效率、成本、服务、技术控制能力）等非标化“软实力”入手。 2）行业投资机会：液冷占比提高带来ASP提升预期，增速高于储能大行业需求增速（21-25年储能温控行业空间CAGR+96%，储能装机量CAGR+92%）。实现超越大行业需求增速的主要原因，系对温控散热速率需求提升而带来的液冷占比提高预期，带来的整体ASP提升。我们预测，预计21-25年液冷占比将由20%提升至42%，储能温控行业平均价值量由4200万元/GWh提升至4500万元/GWh。 How would the competitive landscape take shape in the energy storage temperature control industry? 1) Industry barriers: it is not difficult for companies with scale and accumulated technology in closely similar industries to enter the energy storage temperature control industry, thus the question of who can make energy storage temperature control products is not particularly relevant, in our view. Industry barriers would stem from capabilities in non-standardized processes (including prefabrication, modularization, customization and intelligentization). Energy storage temperature controls require high tech requirements similar to precision air conditioners and industrial refrigeration equipment (both of which need to achieve high-precision temperature and humidity control in industrial equipment). Therefore, it would not be as difficult for companies that have accumulated the technologies in these industries to expand into energy storage temperature controls. Analysis of industry barriers begins with non-standardized, “soft” capabilities, such as prefabrication, modularization, customization and intelligentization (each of which affects efficiency, cost, service and tech control levels respectively). 2) As the liquid cooling market share rises, so would its ASP, while its growth rate would be faster than large energy storage demand growth (we estimate a sizable energy storage temperature control CAGR of more than 96% over 2021-25E, compared to over 92% CAGR for energy storage installed capacities). The main reason why liquid cooling growth would outpace large segment demand growth is because rising demand for temperature control and heat dissipation increases the liquid cooling market share, and this raises overall ASP. We expect the proportion of liquid cooling will increase from 20% to 42%, and energy storage temperature control ASP will increase from RMB42m/GWh to RMB45m/GWh over 2021-25E. 3）公司投资机会：从市场格局发展趋势，看行业内各公司当前时点、中期层面的投资机会。 - 行业格局：对比精密空调行业，中期格局或呈“一超多强”。我们认为储能温控行业与精密空调行业具有较高的相似性（技术相似性+非标化能力相似性），因此对比精密空调行业的发展趋势，分析预测中期层面储能温控行业格局发展趋势具有合理性。目前国内机房空调呈“一超多强”格局，先进入者艾默生龙头地位稳固，其他份额由国内公司占据，同时国内主要厂商的毛利率在30%-40%之间。我们认为，中期来看储能温控行业或会有相似的演变路径——市场格局呈“一超多强”，盈利能力相对较高及稳定。 - 当前时点：已获得规模性出货的公司可获得先发优势。当前时点行业增速足够快（预计22-23年行业市场空间yoy+187%/83%），已获得规模性出货的公司有望获得业务高增长，建议关注保守预计先发优势明显的公司【英维克】。 -中期层面：参与者变多、格局分化，考验公司的非标化能力。中期层面下游或将开发多家供应商以提高议价权、保障供应链安全，因此行业参与者变动、格局分化的预期下，需要考虑各公司非标化优势获得市场份额的能力。我们认为，有望通过非标化优势打开市场份额的公司包括【英维克】（预制化、模块化、定制化、智能化技术积累丰富）、【同飞股份】（对液体的高精度温度控制为最大优势）、【高澜股份】（对温控设备控制的软件开发能力为最大优势）。 3) Market players: we look at development trends to gauge the competitive landscape: -Industry landscape: relative to precision air-conditioning, we believe the energy storage temperature control industry’s market structure would be characterized by "one giant among many greats" in the medium term. The energy storage temperature control industry bear close similarities with the precision air conditioner industry (such as the technological and non-standardized capability aspects). We therefore look at the precision air conditioner industry’s development trend to gauge the energy storage temperature control industry’s development trend in the medium term. In China’s electronics industry, the air conditioner segment is dominated by "one giant among many greats". First mover Emerson has a solid leadership while the other players are domestic companies, and major domestic manufacturers have gross profit margins of 30-40%. We believe the energy storage temperature control industry will evolve similarly in the medium term to shape a competitive structure based on "one giant and many greats", with high and stable profitability. -Currently: companies with large-scale shipments are enjoying early-mover advantages. The industry is growing fast (we expect the market size to increase by 187%/83% yoy in 2022/23E) and we expect companies with large-scale shipments to achieve high growth. -Mid-term: the number of players increases in the industry and market differentiation emerges, challenging their non-standardized process capabilities. In the medium term, as the downstream market develops and more suppliers come in, bargaining power improves and supply chain security increases. Therefore, in anticipating changes such as a rising number of industry participants and emerging differentiation in the competitive landscape, we would consider companies’ abilities to gain market share based on non-standardized technology capabilities 投资建议 / Investment ideas 投资建议：短期看好拥有先发优势的公司优先受益储能温控行业高增速，中期看好各公司通过非标化优势打开市场份额。建议关注：英维克、同飞股份、高澜股份。 -英维克：储能温控行业内最早实现出货企业之一，先发优势明显——公司为国内精密空调行业领先企业，在精密空调领域有丰富的风冷、液冷技术积累，凭技术积累&优先布局，在储能温控领域成为行业内最早实现出货的企业之一，2020年、2021H1分别实现来自储能应用的营业收入近1亿元、约1.5亿元，先发优势明显；中期来看公司非标化优势突出，有望通过技术迁移持续扩大市场份额，稳固行业龙头地位——公司在精密空调业务中积累的预制化、模块化、定制化、智能化等非标性优势突出，有望技术迁移至储能温控业务，持续打开市场份额。 -同飞股份：当前储能温控业务量较小，但高精度温度控制能力突出，中期层面有望打开市场份额。公司为工业制冷解决方案服务商，储能温控方面目前业务量仍较小（已与阳光储能等公司展开合作），但中期来看，公司对液体的高精度化温度控制能力突出（在研技术对温度控制精度最高可达到±0.1℃），有望凭借此非标化优势打开储能温控液冷市场份额，此外，公司前期在模块化+定制化能力上亦有积累。 -高澜股份：当前储能温控业务量较小，但温控设备软件开发能力突出，中期层面有望打开市场份额。公司为电力电子行业热管理整体解决方案提供商，储能温控方面目前业务量仍较小（已与宁德时代等公司展开合作），但中期来看，公司软件开发能力突出，拥有根据冷却对象、产品特性而定制的纯水冷却设备控制系统软件，具有自主化、定制化、智能化等显著特点，未来有望凭此优势打开储能温控液冷市场份额。 Investment ideas: In the short term, companies with early-mover advantages are likely to be the first to benefit from the industry’s rapid growth. In the medium term, companies with non-standardized know-how are likely to gain market share. Not-rated market players: Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837 CH), Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration (300990 CH), Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech (300499 CH). -Envicool: one of the first companies in the energy storage temperature control industry to achieve scale shipments with first-mover advantages. This leader in China’s precision air-conditioning industry brought over its air and liquid cooling tech experience in precision air-conditioning to the energy storage temperature control industry, which gave it a head start. It was one of the first to reach scale shipments in energy storage temperature controls. Revenue from energy storage applications came to about RMB100m/150m in 2020/21H1. -Tongfei: this industrial refrigeration solutions service provider has a small energy storage temperature control business. -Goaland: it supplies thermal management solutions to the power electronics industry and has a small energy storage temperature control business. Its capabilities include autonomy, customization and intelligentization. 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；行业需求不及预期；储能技术迭代超预期；竞争加剧风险；测算具有主观性，仅供参考。 Risks include: downstream demand falling belowexpectations; industry demand falling below expectations; unexpected energystorage technology iteration levels; intensifying competition; and ourestimates are subjective and for reference only. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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