雅化集团: 民爆云中守,锂业取功勋-被低估的氢氧化锂龙头

（以下内容从天风证券《雅化集团: 民爆云中守,锂业取功勋-被低估的氢氧化锂龙头》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group (002497 CH) 民爆云中守，锂业取功勋-被低估的氢氧化锂龙头 Initiating coverage: global civil explosives leader with an undervalued lithium hydroxide secondary business TP:RMB52.8 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 民爆为盾、锂业为矛-雅化双主业布局。雅化创立于1952年，于2010年深交所上市。目前形成民爆+锂盐业务双主业布局。其中民爆业务专注于各类民用爆炸物品的研发、生产与销售，为客提供特定的工程爆破方案，并拥有专业的运输公司，可为客户提供安全、快捷的危险品运输服务。锂业务目前有锂盐产能4.3万吨，远期计划扩产雅安二期5万吨氢氧化锂和1.1万吨氯化锂，锂盐总产能有望在2025年突破10万大关。 Stable civil explosives business while lithium salt production drives new growth Dual drivers: Yahua was founded in 1952 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2010. Business is driven by its twin drivers of civil explosives and lithium salt. Its R&D-based civil explosive business covers the production and sales of precise engineering blasting solutions, including the quick and safe transportation of dangerous goods. Its other business of lithium salt production has a capacity of 43,000t while long-term plans under Yaan project phase II would add 50,000t of lithium hydroxide and 11,000t of lithium chloride, bringing its total lithium salt production capacity to 100,000t by 2025E. 市场核心担忧：氢氧化锂22-23年是否会过剩？ 铁锂无模组化提升能量密度，凭借成本优势短期被车企青睐名正言顺。我们预计明年磷酸铁锂仍火热，但受制于加拿大魁北克碳包覆专利，氢氧化锂22需求将保有坚守基本盘。同时，短期看：22年美国补贴法案落地有望实现新能源车产销放量，电动SUV和皮卡将显著带动明年高镍三元电池需求。中期看：铁锂发展迅猛倒逼三元走向高镍化，高镍渗透率提升有望持续带动氢氧化锂需求。 Market concerned about a possible lithium hydroxide surplus in 2022-23E No-module lithium iron phosphate batteries improve energy density, a cost advantage for car companies in the short term. We expect lithium iron phosphate to remain a hot market next year. Subject to a carbon coating patent under Quebec, Canada, demand for lithium hydroxide is likely to remain strong this year.In the short term: we expect the implementation of the US Subsidy Act in 2022 to realize production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEV) while electric SUVs and pickups drive significant demand for ternary high-nickel batteries next year. In the medium term: we expect ternary iron and lithium rapid growth to shift toward high-nickel as rising high-nickel permeability continues to drive demand for lithium hydroxide. 氢氧化锂加工将走向何方？ 诚然，短期锂矿短缺为氢氧化锂加工企业的核心制约，但我们认为在市场一味追求“有矿就好”的浪潮下，氢氧化锂加工企业的基因仍属制造业，对上游资源开发并不擅长。长周期下，氢氧化锂加工企业的Capex重心仍将放在产能扩展与技术提升方面，站在氢氧化锂加工产业发展的角度，我们认为远期氢氧化锂产业趋势将分为二条主线：1）氢氧化锂走向高精细化，拥Know-how壁垒且绑定下游产业链的氢氧化锂加工企业将享受溢价。2）氢氧化锂加工将全球布局，强全球管理能力企业更胜一筹。 Lithium hydroxide processing industry development trends Admittedly, the short-term lithium ore shortage presents a core constraint for lithium hydroxide processing companies. But despite the current market obsession with anything mining, we believe the core business DNA of lithium hydroxide processing companies lies with manufacturing rather than upstream resource development. In the long term, their capex spending would prioritize capacity expansion and technology upgrades. Thus, we see two key development trends for the lithium hydroxide processing industry: 1) a shift toward ultra-refined materials, where market leaders would enjoy a premium due to competitive barriers of tech know-how and strong ties with the downstream supply chain. 2) Global industry expansion: companies with strong global management capabilities would benefit. 为什么我们坚定看好雅化？ 1） 雅化短期上游已经锁定银河资源、Core、李家沟等矿石资源，同时下游深度绑定特斯拉并积极扩产。长期供应高质量+稳定产量的氢氧化锂加工企业才能通过头部电池厂/OEM厂认证，深度绑定下游产业链并远期跟随匹配大客户同步扩产的企业理应享受溢价。 2） 雅化从四川单一民爆厂逐步发展为全球覆盖、旗下拥有新西兰红牛、雅化澳洲等子公司的全球民爆龙头足以瞻显其全球多属地生产管理能力。相比国内其余氢氧化锂布局聚焦于单一地段，雅化有望借助其深耕民爆多年的全球制造管理经验，实现全球高质量氢氧化锂生产运营。 Why we like Yahua 1) In the short term, Yahua has locked in ore resources upstream (Galaxy Resources, Core and Lijiagou) and downstream (Tesla) and it is also expanding production. In the long term, we believe that only lithium hydroxide processing companies that provide a high-quality and stable supply would be certified by leading battery/OEM manufacturers, which means strong ties with the downstream supply chain. Companies that are able to expand production for large customers on a long-term basis would then enjoy a premium. 2) Yahua has grown gradually from a single-business civil explosives manufacturer in Sichuan to a global civil explosives market leader with subsidiaries such as New Zealand Red Bull and Yahua Australia. This is a testament to its global production management capabilities. Unlike Chinese lithium hydroxide companies with a single-market focus, we expect Yahua to achieve high-quality lithium hydroxide production and global operations, based on its long manufacturing and global management experience. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议： 考虑雅安扩建，我们预测公司 2022-2023 年归母净利润分别为40.52/49.78亿，对应 PE 10X/8X，给予22年15X，对应股价52.8元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation Factoring in the Yaan capacity expansion, we forecast net profit of RMB4.05bn/4.98bn in 2022/23E, corresponding to PE of 10x/8x. We assign a 15x PE in 2022E, deriving a target price of RMB52.80. Hence, we initiate coverage with a BUY call. 风险提示：疫情反复风险，新能源车销量不及预期风险，锂价下跌风险，股价异常波动的风险。 Risks include: pandemic resurgence; lower NEV sales than expected; falling lithium prices; and abnormal share price volatility. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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