东华科技: 化工建设龙头,新能源工程及实业带来新增长动能

（以下内容从天风证券《东华科技: 化工建设龙头,新能源工程及实业带来新增长动能》研报附件原文摘录）
　　East China Engineering Science and Technology (002140 CH) 化工建设龙头，新能源工程及实业带来新增长动能 Initiating coverage: market leader in chemical construction; new energy engineering adds momentum TP: RMB18.21 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 化工工程建设领域龙头，煤化工工程业务迎发展良机 公司煤化工与化工工程业务占比超9成，我们认为煤化工行业整体处于回暖时期，盐湖提锂及磷化工等亦有望贡献工程收入，中长期看实业增厚利润稳定增长。煤化工受益于政策定调（原料用能不纳入能源消费总量控制）及经济性出现（原油价格超80美元/桶），十三五搁置建设项目或重启，根据十四五规划，煤制油/天然气/烯烃/乙二醇工程对应工程投资额为390.6/593.7/414/376亿，公司乙二醇工程市占率近七成，其他煤化工领域亦有项目经验，有望行业回暖期业务端迎发展良机。 Chemical engineering construction leader: coal chemical segment opportunities East China Engineering Science and Technology’s (ECEST) coal chemical and chemical engineering divisions account for more than 90% of its business. We believe the coal chemical industry is in a recovery cycle. Its salt-lake lithium extraction and phosphorus chemical segments could also contribute to engineering revenue and we expect industry profitability to grow steadily in the medium to long term. The coal chemical industry benefits from the policy setting (since energy used in raw materials is exempted from total energy consumption controls) and from favorable economics (with the crude oil price exceeding USD80/barrel). Factoring in shelved and restarted projects under the previous 13th Five-Year Plan (13FYP), current project investments under the 14FYP would come to: coal-to-oil projects at RMB39.06bn, natural gas RMB59.37bn, olefin RMB41.4bn and ethylene glycol projects at RMB37.6bn. In ethylene glycol projects, the company has a nearly 70% share. With its project experience in other coal chemical segments, we expect the company to embrace development opportunities in an industry rebound. 工程端紧跟市场动向，拓展盐湖提锂、钛白粉及新能源领域 1）盐湖提锂：国内潜在工程空间为530亿元，万吨级工程建设能力及产能达产速度是两大竞争优势，公司2021年签订西藏EPC+O万吨订单（施工21.2亿+运营10.7亿），计划三年达产有望领先行业。2）其他工程：目前氯化法制钛白占全国总产量9.1%，环保助力氯化法快速扩张，公司氯化法技术具有垄断优势；公司签订4万吨/年磷酸铁EPC，受益于锂电池放量，相关业务或迎大发展。 Market trends: salt-lake lithium extraction, titanium dioxide and new energy 1) Lithium extraction from salt lakes: we believe that China has a potential project market size of RMB53bn. The country’s two major competitive advantages are construction capacities for 10,000t projects and a high production capacity ramp-up speed. ECEST signed an order with Tibet in 2021 for an EPC+O 10,000t project (construction: RMB2.12bn; operations: RMB1.07bn). Its plan to commence production within three years augurs well for industry leadership. 2) Other projects: titanium dioxide extraction by chlorination currently accounts for 9.1% of China’s output. The company’s dominance in chlorination extraction tech benefits from the country’s environmental protection stance. ECEST has signed iron phosphate EPC contracts amounting to 40,000tpa, a beneficiary of new lithium battery roll-outs. There is rich potential for related businesses and mega projects. 布局PBAT等实业业务，引入陕煤工程和实业有望加速推进 公司与新疆天业合资PBAT项目规模为50万吨/年，并通过配套建设30万吨原料BDO，锁定成本获得稳定利润，一期10万吨PBAT生产已经竣工，并成立天业祥泰，以布局PBAT销售工作，公司处于新疆区域，市场开拓方面或具备一定优势，随着产能利用率的提升公司利润或逐步放量；引入战投陕煤集团推动技术产业化，非公开发行1.64亿股，募资9.31亿元。完成后，陕煤集团（拟认购8.38亿元）将持有东华科技20.77%股权，成为上市公司第二大股东。后续在布局PBAT与DMC产业及化工工程业务有望加速。 PBAT and industrial buildout; Shaanxi Coal project could drive a market uptrend The scale of its PBAT JV project with Xinjiang Tianye is 500,000tpa. The construction of 300,000t of raw material BDO locks in cost to help stabilize profits. Tianye Xiangtai is established with the phase I completion of 100,000t PBAT production capacity. To carry out PBAT sales, the company is located in the Xinjiang region to aid market growth. As production capacity utilization improves, profits would increase gradually. To beef up industrialization technology, the company’s plan is to raise RMB931m under a non-public offering of 164m shares. To this end, it brought in war chest investor Zhantou Shaanxi Coal Group. On completion, Shaanxi Coal (which subscribed RMB838m) will hold 20.77% of ECEST and become the second largest shareholder of the listed company. We expect the company’s PBAT, DMC and chemical engineering business to accelerate hereafter. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 传统优势业务与新业务扩张可期，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级 我们看好公司传统业务景气度明显回暖，新业务或迎来快速放量，预计公司21-23年EPS 0.52/0.73/0.90元，净利润2.84/3.97/4.92亿元，21-23年CAGR+32%，当前可比公司22年Wind一致预期PE均值为31.67倍，考虑到公司未来工程业务稳定增长，中长期实业或有较大潜力，给予22年PE 25倍，对应目标价18.21元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation We anticipate a significant profit uptick in the company‘s traditional business and rapid volume growth in its new business. We expect EPS of RMB0.52/0.73/0.90 in 2021/22/23E on total net profit of RMB284m/397m/492m at a CAGR of 32% over 2021-23E. The current average peer PE is 31.67x for 2022E. Factoring in stabilizing growth, we see strong potential in the engineering industry over the medium to long term. We assign a 2022E PE of 25x to the company, deriving a price target of RMB18.21, and initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：碳酸锂产能释放不达预期，煤炭价格居高不下致工程投资减弱，氯化法制钛白替代速度不及预期，国内可降解塑料产能或过剩。 Risks include: incremental lithium carbonate production capacities falling below expectations; persistently high coal prices weakening the value of project investments; slower-than-expected replacement rates of titanium dioxide via chlorination; and excessive domestic degradable plastic production capacities. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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