胜宏科技: 高速成长的内资PCB龙头,受益于扩产+产品结构升级

（以下内容从天风证券《胜宏科技: 高速成长的内资PCB龙头,受益于扩产+产品结构升级》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Victory Giant Technology (Huizhou) (300476 CH) 高速成长的内资PCB龙头，受益于扩产+产品结构升级 Initiating coverage: domestically funded PCB market leader ramps up production and refines product structure TP: RMB40 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 高速成长的内资PCB龙头。胜宏科技成立于2006年，主要产品为双面板、多层板(含HDI)，产品应用广泛。公司位居全球PCB百强排行榜第25名（Prismark），中国PCB企业排行榜内资第4名。公司业绩持续稳定高速增长，2016-2020年营收CAGR为32.5%。21年上半年公司增长势头持续业绩靓丽，实现营收33.84亿元，yoy+45.39%，实现归母净利润3.92亿元，yoy+50.04%。 China’s PCB rising star Victory Giant Technology, which started out in 2006, supplies mainly double-sided and multi-layer boards (including HDIs), which have wide application markets. The company is ranked 25th in Prismark’s global PCB top 100 list, and 4th among domestically funded companies. Revenue continues to increase steadily, tracking at a CAGR of 32.5% over 2016-20. 1H21 results were strong: revenue arrived at RMB3.38bn, up 45.39% yoy, and generated net profit of RMB392m, up 50.04% yoy. 内生增长：产品结构优化+高端产品产能扩增+智能工厂4.0，2022年百亿产值可期。随着公司HDI新增产能的逐步释放，公司HDI营收占比逐步提升，产品结构不断升级。2020年公司拥有双面板+多层板产能740万平方米/年，HDI板48万平方米/年（按照二阶计算），HDI二期已经进入试产阶段，达产后公司整体产能预计可达860万平方米/年。2021年公司定增20亿元，其中15亿元用于扩产高多层板145万平方米/年、高阶HDI 40万平方米/年、IC封装基板14万平方米/年，进一步扩充高端产能。公司率先突破,打造行业领先工业互联网智慧工厂，产能品质大幅提升，人均产值持续提升。受益于产品结构优化+高端产能扩增+智能工厂4.0，公司业绩将延续高增势头，22年百亿产值可期，长期增长动能足。 2022E 10bn output on endogenous growth: product structure optimization, high-end product capacity expansion and smart factory 4.0 drivers As Victory gradually rolled out new HDI production capacities, is HDI revenue share increased, optimizing the product structure. The company’s 2020 annual production capacities in double-sided and multi-layered boards amounted to 7.4m sqm and HDI boards to 480,000 sqm (based on second derivative calculations). HDI phase II has entered trial production and the company‘s total annual production capacity could reach 8.6m sqm. It issued a private placement to raise RMB2bn: it plans to use RMB1.5bn to raise annual production capacities for high-level multi-layer boards by 1.45m sqm, high-end HDI by 400,000 sqm and IC packaging substrates by 140,000 sqm, generally upsizing its high-end product capacity. Victory has achieved breakthroughs and taken the lead to build an industrial internet smart factory. While it has raised production capacity, its production quality has also gone up several notches. Per-capita output value has also risen. We expect the optimization of product structure with more high-end production capacity and its smart factory 4.0 to sustain the strong profit growth momentum. We believe Victory will achieve an output value of 10bn in 2022E to drive its long-term growth momentum. 行业优势：显卡＋汽车。1) 核心拳头产品高密度多层VGA（显卡）PCB受益于dGPU需求旺盛+产品升级+行业龙头地位。公司核心拳头产品高密度多层VGA（显卡）PCB成功导入行业头部客户（AMD等），市场份额全球第一，有望受益于下游dGPU需求旺盛和产品升级带动的价值量提升。2) 汽车PCB业务受益于行业高速增长+产品线逐步完善+优质客户资源。公司汽车PCB产品线逐步完善，具备低压产品、高压产品和HDI板全线产品供应能力。公司产品成功导入特斯拉、比亚迪、吉利、造车新势力等国内外优质大客户。 Industry advantages: graphics cards and autos 1) High-density multi-layer VGA (graphics card) PCBs: this is its most competitive product category, driven by strong dGPU demand, product upgrades and Victory’s leading industry position. Its customers include big names like AMD and it holds the largest global market share. It should continue to benefit from strong downstream dGPU demand and rising value, driven by product upgrades. 2) Automotive PCBs: this category benefits from the industry’s rapid growth, gradual automotive product line enhancement and high-quality customers. Victory supplies low-voltage, high-voltage and HDI board products. Domestic and major quality foreign customers include Tesla, BYD, Geely, as well as emerging market car manufacturers. 产品景气度向上：HDI＋IC载板。1) HDI景气度向上，公司将受益于行业景气度向上+提前布局具备技术工艺优势+ HDI一期满产和二期投产。中长期来看，公司持续推进anyLayer HDI和SLP的产品布局，有望继续优化产品结构，拔高业绩天花板。2) IC载板需求旺盛+国产替代趋势加强，公司积极研发扩产享行业高速增长红利。公司21年定增项目拟扩产14万平方米，带动公司产品结构升级，贡献业绩增量。 Product advantages: the rise of HDI and IC carrier boards 1) HDIs: with its early mover network buildout, Victory benefits from the industry boom in terms of its technical process advantages. Its HDI Phase I has reached full production and Phase II is in production. We expect the company to optimize its product structure in the medium to long term by enhancing AnyLayer HDI and SLP, raising its performance potential. 2) ICs: strong demand for IC substrates is boosting the domestic substitution trend. Victory’s R&D know-how and production expansion allow it to benefit from industry growth. Its private placement in 2021 would enable it to expand production by 140,000 sqm and upgrade its product structure. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议： 预计公司21/22/23年营收为73.56/96.30/123.13亿元，yoy+31.36%/30.92%/27.86%，净利润为8.40/11.46/14.66亿元，yoy+61.89%/36.39%/27.94%，给予公司22年30x PE，对应目标价为40元/股，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 Valuation We expect revenue of RMB7.36bn/9.63bn/12.31bn in 2021/22/23E, up 31.36/30.92/ 27.86% yoy, with net profit at RMB840m/1.15bn/1.47bn, up 61.89/36.39/27.94% yoy. We assign a 30x PE for 2022E, corresponding to our price target of RMB40 and initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、HDI产能爬坡不及预期、21年定增项目高多层板/HDI/IC载板扩产不及预期、市场竞争加剧 Risks include: lower downstream demand than expected; slower HDI production capacity expansion than expected; weaker-than-expected production expansion of high-density multi-layer boards, HDI and IC carrier boards via the 2021 private placement; and intensifying competition. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. 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