水泥制造——过去十年水泥板块年初表现给我们提供了哪些启示?
（以下内容从天风证券《水泥制造——过去十年水泥板块年初表现给我们提供了哪些启示?》研报附件原文摘录）
China Cement 过去十年水泥板块年初表现给我们提供了哪些启示？ What can we learn from year-beginning peak trends over the past decade? 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 过去十余年水泥指数年初表现如何？ 过去十年年初至旺季结束（5.30）水泥指数最大涨幅的平均值为35.3%， 15年最高达85%，21年最低为14.5%。我们认为21年主要因为在疫情影响减弱后，玻璃、消费建材等顺周期行业基本面弹性更大，相比之下，作为逆周期的水泥弹性不高。而2022年稳增长重要性提升，宏观环境更为有利，但年初至今水泥指数最大涨幅仅8.8%，因此后续上涨空间仍存。09年以来仅有10、12、13、18、21年水泥指数在春节后至5月底期间出现回撤，其中10、13年回撤幅度较大，达19%/21%，系年初指数位置较高，而18、21年最大回撤仅有4%/2%，当前来看，我们认为水泥板块整体仍处在底部区域，当前PE.ttm/PB.lf分别为9.0/1.1倍，对应13年以来26%/4%分位，因此我们认为在22年上半年旺季结束之前，水泥股的回撤风险较小。 Cement Index: year-beginning performance trends over the past 10 years Tracking the Cement Index’s peak-growth trends over the past 10 years during the high-season cycle (from year-beginning to 30 May), peak growth averaged 35.3%; while 85% was the highest in 2015 and 14.5% was the lowest in 2021. We attribute a weakening pandemic impact, which boosted fundamentals and improved elasticity for pro-cyclical industries such as glass and consumer building materials. Contrastingly, non-cyclical sectors such as cement demonstrated less elasticity. For 2022E, we expect growth stability to increase as a factor, along with macro environment trends; however, with only 8.8% peak growth in the Cement Index since the beginning of the year, we see much potential for further growth. Looking at Chinese New Year (CNY) to end-May cycles from 2009 to now, the Cement Index declined only in these years: 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018 and 2021. 2010/2013 had larger declines of up to 19%/21%, due to the index having high positions at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the maximum declines were only at 4%/2% in 2018/2021. We believe the cement sector is currently in a bottom, with TTM PE/PB at 9.0/1.1x, similar to the 26%/4% quantiles in 2013, so the risk of a pull-back in cement stocks before the 1H22 peak season ends is unlikely. 水泥板块何时开始启动？何时结束？ 过去13年水泥板块多数在春节前启动，具体1月初-2月初不等，仅有2014、2016、2020年水泥板块的启动时间出现在春节之后。而从2022年元旦后水泥板块表现来看，并未出现持续的反弹行情，主要原因在于水泥需求已进入下行期，需求端不确定性在增加，因此年初仍存在较多博弈。从2014、2016年水泥指数启动时点来看，分别出现在水泥涨价前10/3天，原因是指数的启动往往伴随需求端边际变化的出现。我们认为1月社融数据超预期或将成为22年指数开启上行通道的催化剂，若后续数据端（项目开工率、投资数据等）进一步印证需求向好，则对板块构成利好；从往年持续时间来看，水泥指数通常会先于价格见顶，但当前风险偏好较往年有所下降，任何需求端的不及预期可能会导致行情提前结束。 What are the catalysts for the cement sector? Chinese New Year: Over the past 13 years, the cement high season tended to kick off before the CNY festival began, i.e. during early January to early February; exceptions were 2014, 2016 and 2020, when the peak season began after CNY. This year, we have not seen a sustained recovery in cement sector performance since New Year’s Day. We believe it is because cement demand has entered a downtrend due to increasing uncertainties in the demand market, with many unknowns persisting since the beginning of the year. Cement price: in 2014/2016, the Cement Index peak cycle started 10/3 days before the cement price uptrend. We think this is because the index peak cycle is often accompanied by the emergence of marginal demand changes. Thus in 2022, the better-than-expected social credit data in January could be a catalyst for the index growth cycle. If subsequent data (project starts ratio, investment data, etc.) show a demand improvement, this would be good news for the sector. Based on the duration of past years’ uptrend cycles, the Cement Index trend could peak before the cement price trend. However, with current risk appetite being weaker than in previous years, any weaker-than-expected demand factors could also hasten the end of the market rising cycle. 水泥价格何时开始上涨？ 2月7日安徽沿江熟料价格上涨30元/吨达400元/吨，同比高80元/吨，因：1）当前熟料库存整体偏低，下游社会独立粉磨站基本处于空库状态，备货较为积极；2）节前熟料价格超跌叠加煤炭成本上升驱动熟料价格上涨。近期水泥价格跟涨可能性较小，局部地区为打开市场或仍会降价，但考虑到当前水泥企业库存压力不大以及熟料提前涨价，预计近期水泥价格调整空间有限。过去十三年水泥价格开始上涨时点均在3月份，随着元宵节后需求逐步恢复，预计三月上旬水泥价格或开始上涨。 When would the cement price growth cycle begin? On 7 Feb, the price of clinker along the Yangtze River in Anhui increased by RMB30 to RMB400/t, a yoy increase of RMB80/t, because: 1) with current clinker inventories generally low and practically empty storage facilities at downstream social independent grinding stations, stockpiling has become more active. 2) The large drop in clinker price before CNY and rising coal cost drove up clinker prices. We think it is unlikely for cement prices to track an uptrend in the near future and some areas might even cut prices to increase the market opportunity. Considering low inventory pressure at cement companies currently and advance clinker price increases, we see limited room for cement price adjustments in the near future. In the past 13 years, cement prices would begin to rise in March. With a gradual demand recovery expected after the CNY 15th day wraps up the festival, we think the cement price could start to rise in early March. 投资建议 / Investment Ideas 22年水泥行业怎么看？ 22年来看，需求端，我们预计地产的下滑仍会对水泥需求形成较大拖累（预计新开工面积同比或下滑10%），稳增长背景下基建发力可能性较大，但预计仍难以扭转整体需求下滑的局面，我们预计22年水泥需求下滑幅度或在5%以内。从各省年初制定的错峰生产计划来看，除华北地区外，其他区域22年错峰生产天数相比21年均有所增长，我们预计全年供给端约束力度更大。同时在双碳双控背景下，企业兼并、小产线退出速度有望加快，供需仍有望维持紧平衡，煤炭、电力成本等燃料成本以及节能降耗等减排成本增加有望驱动水泥价格中枢抬升，21年水泥行业利润率同比下降2.7pct达15.8%，我们预计22年行业利润率有望回暖。 推荐成长性较优的上峰水泥、华新水泥，龙头海螺水泥，关注有望受益基建发力的江西龙头万年青以及西北龙头祁连山。 2022E sector outlook and stock ideas We expect the real estate sector decline to exert a large drag on cement demand in 2022E (we are expecting new construction starts area may decline 10% yoy). Against a backdrop of steady growth, infrastructural development would more likely pick up, but the overall demand decline could be difficult to turn around. We expect to see a decline in cement demand of up to 5% in 2022E. Based on staggered production plans formulated by provinces at the beginning of the year, except in North China, staggered production days in other regions in 2022E could increase from 2021. We expect more supply constraints throughout the year. At the same time, in line with China’s dual carbon targets, we would expect corporate M&A and the shakeout of small production lines to accelerate, with supply and demand in a tight balance. The cement industry profit margin in 2021 decreased 2.7ppt yoy to 15.8% and we expect this to recover in 2022E. We recommend Gansu Shangfeng Cement (000672 CH, BUY), Huaxin Cement (600801 CH, BUY) and Anhui Conch Cement Company (600585 CH, BUY) for their better growth potential. We would also consider Jiangxi leader Wannianqing Cement (000789 CH, BUY) and Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group (600720 CH, BUY; initiation), which could benefit from infrastructural developments. 风险提示：预测带有一定主观性，或与实际情况存在一定偏差；需求恢复情况不及预期；错峰停产执行情况不及预期。 Risks include: : risks of main raw materials, spare parts supply and price fluctuations; market competition risks; further spread of the epidemic; customer concentration risks and orders not meeting expectations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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China Cement 过去十年水泥板块年初表现给我们提供了哪些启示？ What can we learn from year-beginning peak trends over the past decade? 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 过去十余年水泥指数年初表现如何？ 过去十年年初至旺季结束（5.30）水泥指数最大涨幅的平均值为35.3%， 15年最高达85%，21年最低为14.5%。我们认为21年主要因为在疫情影响减弱后，玻璃、消费建材等顺周期行业基本面弹性更大，相比之下，作为逆周期的水泥弹性不高。而2022年稳增长重要性提升，宏观环境更为有利，但年初至今水泥指数最大涨幅仅8.8%，因此后续上涨空间仍存。09年以来仅有10、12、13、18、21年水泥指数在春节后至5月底期间出现回撤，其中10、13年回撤幅度较大，达19%/21%，系年初指数位置较高，而18、21年最大回撤仅有4%/2%，当前来看，我们认为水泥板块整体仍处在底部区域，当前PE.ttm/PB.lf分别为9.0/1.1倍，对应13年以来26%/4%分位，因此我们认为在22年上半年旺季结束之前，水泥股的回撤风险较小。 Cement Index: year-beginning performance trends over the past 10 years Tracking the Cement Index’s peak-growth trends over the past 10 years during the high-season cycle (from year-beginning to 30 May), peak growth averaged 35.3%; while 85% was the highest in 2015 and 14.5% was the lowest in 2021. We attribute a weakening pandemic impact, which boosted fundamentals and improved elasticity for pro-cyclical industries such as glass and consumer building materials. Contrastingly, non-cyclical sectors such as cement demonstrated less elasticity. For 2022E, we expect growth stability to increase as a factor, along with macro environment trends; however, with only 8.8% peak growth in the Cement Index since the beginning of the year, we see much potential for further growth. Looking at Chinese New Year (CNY) to end-May cycles from 2009 to now, the Cement Index declined only in these years: 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018 and 2021. 2010/2013 had larger declines of up to 19%/21%, due to the index having high positions at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the maximum declines were only at 4%/2% in 2018/2021. We believe the cement sector is currently in a bottom, with TTM PE/PB at 9.0/1.1x, similar to the 26%/4% quantiles in 2013, so the risk of a pull-back in cement stocks before the 1H22 peak season ends is unlikely. 水泥板块何时开始启动？何时结束？ 过去13年水泥板块多数在春节前启动，具体1月初-2月初不等，仅有2014、2016、2020年水泥板块的启动时间出现在春节之后。而从2022年元旦后水泥板块表现来看，并未出现持续的反弹行情，主要原因在于水泥需求已进入下行期，需求端不确定性在增加，因此年初仍存在较多博弈。从2014、2016年水泥指数启动时点来看，分别出现在水泥涨价前10/3天，原因是指数的启动往往伴随需求端边际变化的出现。我们认为1月社融数据超预期或将成为22年指数开启上行通道的催化剂，若后续数据端（项目开工率、投资数据等）进一步印证需求向好，则对板块构成利好；从往年持续时间来看，水泥指数通常会先于价格见顶，但当前风险偏好较往年有所下降，任何需求端的不及预期可能会导致行情提前结束。 What are the catalysts for the cement sector? Chinese New Year: Over the past 13 years, the cement high season tended to kick off before the CNY festival began, i.e. during early January to early February; exceptions were 2014, 2016 and 2020, when the peak season began after CNY. This year, we have not seen a sustained recovery in cement sector performance since New Year’s Day. We believe it is because cement demand has entered a downtrend due to increasing uncertainties in the demand market, with many unknowns persisting since the beginning of the year. Cement price: in 2014/2016, the Cement Index peak cycle started 10/3 days before the cement price uptrend. We think this is because the index peak cycle is often accompanied by the emergence of marginal demand changes. Thus in 2022, the better-than-expected social credit data in January could be a catalyst for the index growth cycle. If subsequent data (project starts ratio, investment data, etc.) show a demand improvement, this would be good news for the sector. Based on the duration of past years’ uptrend cycles, the Cement Index trend could peak before the cement price trend. However, with current risk appetite being weaker than in previous years, any weaker-than-expected demand factors could also hasten the end of the market rising cycle. 水泥价格何时开始上涨？ 2月7日安徽沿江熟料价格上涨30元/吨达400元/吨，同比高80元/吨，因：1）当前熟料库存整体偏低，下游社会独立粉磨站基本处于空库状态，备货较为积极；2）节前熟料价格超跌叠加煤炭成本上升驱动熟料价格上涨。近期水泥价格跟涨可能性较小，局部地区为打开市场或仍会降价，但考虑到当前水泥企业库存压力不大以及熟料提前涨价，预计近期水泥价格调整空间有限。过去十三年水泥价格开始上涨时点均在3月份，随着元宵节后需求逐步恢复，预计三月上旬水泥价格或开始上涨。 When would the cement price growth cycle begin? On 7 Feb, the price of clinker along the Yangtze River in Anhui increased by RMB30 to RMB400/t, a yoy increase of RMB80/t, because: 1) with current clinker inventories generally low and practically empty storage facilities at downstream social independent grinding stations, stockpiling has become more active. 2) The large drop in clinker price before CNY and rising coal cost drove up clinker prices. We think it is unlikely for cement prices to track an uptrend in the near future and some areas might even cut prices to increase the market opportunity. Considering low inventory pressure at cement companies currently and advance clinker price increases, we see limited room for cement price adjustments in the near future. In the past 13 years, cement prices would begin to rise in March. With a gradual demand recovery expected after the CNY 15th day wraps up the festival, we think the cement price could start to rise in early March. 投资建议 / Investment Ideas 22年水泥行业怎么看？ 22年来看，需求端，我们预计地产的下滑仍会对水泥需求形成较大拖累（预计新开工面积同比或下滑10%），稳增长背景下基建发力可能性较大，但预计仍难以扭转整体需求下滑的局面，我们预计22年水泥需求下滑幅度或在5%以内。从各省年初制定的错峰生产计划来看，除华北地区外，其他区域22年错峰生产天数相比21年均有所增长，我们预计全年供给端约束力度更大。同时在双碳双控背景下，企业兼并、小产线退出速度有望加快，供需仍有望维持紧平衡，煤炭、电力成本等燃料成本以及节能降耗等减排成本增加有望驱动水泥价格中枢抬升，21年水泥行业利润率同比下降2.7pct达15.8%，我们预计22年行业利润率有望回暖。 推荐成长性较优的上峰水泥、华新水泥，龙头海螺水泥，关注有望受益基建发力的江西龙头万年青以及西北龙头祁连山。 2022E sector outlook and stock ideas We expect the real estate sector decline to exert a large drag on cement demand in 2022E (we are expecting new construction starts area may decline 10% yoy). Against a backdrop of steady growth, infrastructural development would more likely pick up, but the overall demand decline could be difficult to turn around. We expect to see a decline in cement demand of up to 5% in 2022E. Based on staggered production plans formulated by provinces at the beginning of the year, except in North China, staggered production days in other regions in 2022E could increase from 2021. We expect more supply constraints throughout the year. At the same time, in line with China’s dual carbon targets, we would expect corporate M&A and the shakeout of small production lines to accelerate, with supply and demand in a tight balance. The cement industry profit margin in 2021 decreased 2.7ppt yoy to 15.8% and we expect this to recover in 2022E. We recommend Gansu Shangfeng Cement (000672 CH, BUY), Huaxin Cement (600801 CH, BUY) and Anhui Conch Cement Company (600585 CH, BUY) for their better growth potential. We would also consider Jiangxi leader Wannianqing Cement (000789 CH, BUY) and Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group (600720 CH, BUY; initiation), which could benefit from infrastructural developments. 风险提示：预测带有一定主观性，或与实际情况存在一定偏差；需求恢复情况不及预期；错峰停产执行情况不及预期。 Risks include: : risks of main raw materials, spare parts supply and price fluctuations; market competition risks; further spread of the epidemic; customer concentration risks and orders not meeting expectations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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Ratings Definitions Investment Ratings Category Description Ratings System Stock investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Stock in the same period Buy Expected relative return over stock price above 20% Accumulate Expected relative return over stock price between 10% and 20% Neutral Expected relative return over stock price between -10% and 10% Sell Expected relative return over stock price below -10% Industry investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Industry in the same period Outperform Expected increase of industry index over 5% Neutral Expected increase of industry index between -5% and 5% Underperform Expected increase of industry index below -5% Jurisdictions Index Used for Ratings Definitions China Mainland CSI 300 Index China-Hong Kong Hang Seng Index China-Marco Hang Seng Index USA Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Copyright of the publications belong to TFGroup. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication,release or quotation is prohibited without TF Group’s written permission.
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