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士兰微: 汽车动力系统冷试国内龙头,IMU打开第二成长极

作者:微信公众号【天风国际】/ 发布时间:2022-02-18 / 悟空智库整理
(以下内容从天风证券《士兰微: 汽车动力系统冷试国内龙头,IMU打开第二成长极》研报附件原文摘录)
  Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics (600460 CH) 功率IDM产能加速释放,新能源驱动产品升级 Initiating coverage: Silan steps up power IDM capacity rollouts; new-energy market drives product upgrades TP: RMB72.39 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 前瞻布局12寸产线,乘光伏/汽车等新能源行业需求快速增长。士兰微成立于1997年。公司8英寸晶圆生产线于2015年开工建设,2017年投产,成为国内第一家拥有8寸生产线的IDM产品公司;2018年,公司12英寸特色工艺晶圆生产线及先进化合物半导体器件生产线在厦门开工建设;截至21年上半年12寸芯片总计产出达到5.72万片,预计21年预计可以实现月产芯片3.5万片的目标,并争取在2022年四季度形成月产12寸圆片6万片的生产能力。 Expanding 12-inch wafer production rollouts on PV and NEV demand lifts Established in 1997, Silan Micro became China’s first IDM in this business when its 8-inch wafer production line commenced operation in 2017. The following year, it started to build 12-inch wafer and advanced compound semiconductor device production lines in Xiamen. As of 1H21, its total 12-inch wafer chip production amounts to 57,200 units. We believe it would have met its goal of 35,000 chips per month in 2021E, even as it targets 60,000 12-inch wafers per month by 4Q22E. 布局功率模拟平台型战略,产品结构优化带动公司盈利能力持续向上。公司在特色工艺平台和在半导体大框架下,形成了多个技术门类的半导体产品,产品间已经相互协同,结合设计+工艺研发能力,打造完善的产品矩阵;公司主要产品包括分立器件、集成电路、发光二极管三大类。1)分立器件广泛应用于新能源汽车驱动和工业电焊机、电机逆变器等领域,受益于国产替代化趋势和新能源汽车景气度攀升,需求空间快速增长;2)集成电路覆盖IPM、MEMS传感器、ACDC等产品;3)发光二极管巩固公司传统LED彩屏芯片市场份额的同时,加快包含高密度彩屏的倒装Mini-LED芯片和液晶屏智能区域背光的Mini-LED芯片的研发和客户拓展。各项业务透过产品结构持续优化带动公司公司盈利能力稳步向上。 Profit lift: power simulation platform strategy and product structure optimization With a special process platform under a general semiconductor framework, the company supplies semiconductor products across multiple tech categories. Product synergy, combined with design and process R&D know-how, allow a comprehensive product matrix. Silan’s three core product categories are discrete devices, integrated circuits (IC) and light-emitting diodes (LED). 1) Discrete devices: these apply in the new energy vehicles (NEV), industrial welding machines, motor inverters and other markets, where demand is rising rapidly along with the domestic substitution trend and rising NEV prosperity. 2) ICs: IPM, MEMS sensors, AC-DC and other markets. 3) LEDs: as it consolidates its LED business with a rising market share in traditional LED color screen chips, it is also stepping up R&D and customer expansion in mini-LED flip chips, including those for high-density color screens and backlit LCD smart areas. Structural optimization of its various product series have lifted profitability. 股权激励覆盖千名核心骨干,考核目标延续4年彰显未来发展信心。2021年12月,公司公布股票期权激励草案,向符合条件的2,419名激励对象授予0.21亿份A股股票期权,行权价格为51.27元/股,占当前总股本1.52%。激励对象皆是公司的高中层管理人员及核心技术(业务)骨干,是公司经营发展的核心力量,该激励计划有助于公司长期发展及战略和经营计划的实现;此外也彰显公司对未来发展的信息,股权激励考核目标以2020年营业收入为基数,2021年至2022年累计营业收入增长率不低于273%,并延续至第四个行权期,以2020年营业收入为基数,2021年至2024年累计营业收入增长率不低于767%。 Core staff equity incentive goals indicate Silan’s confidence over next 4 years The company announced a draft for its stock option incentives in December 2021, which details the granting of 21m A-share stock options to 2,419 eligible staff with an exercise price of RMB51.27 per share, altogether accounting for 1.52% of its current total share capital. The eligible personnel represent its core business development backbone team, including middle and senior management, and key technology (business) employees. The incentive plan guides long-term growth and hinges on the realization of the company’s strategic and business goals. It also indicates its future development path. Based on 2020 revenue, the equity incentive assessment targets include a 2021-22 accumulative revenue growth rate of at least 273%, which will be exercised for four cycles, and a 2021-24 accumulative revenue growth rate of at least 767%, also based on 2020 revenue. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议: 公司持续发挥IDM 模式的优势,产能释放与产品结构优化带动公司业绩持续增长,我们预计公司2021~2023年归母净利润分别为14.56、15.77、20.09亿元。根据wind一致性预测,参考可比公司22年平均PE,保守估计给予公司65倍,对应市值为1025.05亿元,对应价格72.39元/股,首次覆盖给予买入评级。 Valuation We believe the company will continue to maximize its IDM model to roll out production capacities while product structure optimization drives profit growth. We expect net profit to amount to RMB1.46bn/1.58bn/2.01bn in 2021/22/23E. Relative to Wind consensus 2022E peer average PE, we conservatively assign to Silan a PE of 65x, corresponding to a market cap of RMB102.51bn and our price target of RMB72.39. Hence, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示:下游应用需求不及预期风险、新产品开发不及预期风险、供应链风险。 Risks include: less downstream application demand than expected; slower new product development than expected; and supply chain risks. 以下为研报节选,查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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