商业贸易——成人失禁用品行业研究:老龄化助力需求扩张,长护险政策加速行业发展

（以下内容从天风证券《商业贸易——成人失禁用品行业研究:老龄化助力需求扩张,长护险政策加速行业发展》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Household & Personal Products 成人失禁用品行业研究：老龄化助力需求扩张，长护险政策加速行业发展 Adult incontinence products: aging trend lifts demand; long-term-care insurance policies propel market growth 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 全球成人失禁用品行业市场规模持续增长，我国成人失禁用品行业处于导入期。2020年，全球成人失禁用品市场规模为905亿元，据IMARC Group 预计，2027年市场规模将达到261亿美元（约合1650亿元），2022-2027年的复合年增长率为7.5%。其中，亚太地区、北美和西欧占全球成人失禁用品的市场份额接近90%。我国成人失禁用品行业处于导入期，市场渗透率目前只有3%，低于世界平均水平12%；但因老龄化程度加深等因素，我国成人失禁用品行业发展迅速，根据欧睿国际数据统计，2013-2020年市场规模从12.3亿增长至61.2亿元，年复合增速为25.76%。 Expanding global market; China’s nascent industry on a steepening uptrend The global adult incontinence product market generated RMB90.5bn in 2020, and could reach USD26.1bn (about RMB165bn) by 2027E, according to IMARC Group, indicating a potential CAGR of 7.5% over 2022-27E. Asia Pacific, North America and Western Europe represent nearly 90% of the global market. In China, this market is in its initial growth phase and current penetration is only 3%, lower than the global average of 12%. However, it is growing much faster, due to factors such as a sharper rise in the aging trend. Euromonitor International data shows that the country’s adult incontinence product market expanded from RMB1.23bn to RMB6.12bn over 2013-20, a CAGR of 25.76%. 日本老龄化程度高、养老体系完善，成人失禁用品行业非常成熟。日本已经进入重度老龄化社会，2020年日本65岁以上人口占总人口比例已经达到28.9%。日本养老制度推动成人失禁用品行业发展，介护体系发展完善，为失禁患者提供费用补贴，满足医疗费用抵扣的条件下，成人失禁用品支出的费用可在报税时抵扣。根据欧睿国际的数据统计，2020年日本成人失禁用品市场规模为1957亿日元（约合109亿元），市场渗透率达到80%。竞争高度集中且格局稳定，CR5市场份额超过90%，其中行业龙头超过50%。日本成人失禁用品零售渠道以实体店为主，非实体店为辅。 Japan: mature market, high aging ratio and well developed pension system Japan’s aging demographic is rising sharply: Japanese over the age of 65 accounted for 28.9% of the population as of 2020. Its pension system is aligned with the growth of adult incontinence products and its nursing care system incorporates subsidies for incontinence patients, where expenses on adult incontinence products are tax deductible under certain conditions. Euromonitor data shows that Japan’s adult incontinence product market generated JPY195.7bn (about RMB10.9bn) in 2020. Its industry penetration rate is 80%, with a stable and highly concentrated structure where CR5 is more than 90% and the industry leader holds over 50%. Japan’s retail channels for incontinence products are mainly brick-and-mortar stores, supplemented by non-physical ones. 我国老龄化趋势不断加深，长护险政策得到发展，成人失禁用品行业未来发展前景广阔。老龄化进程和政策支持将助力国内成人失禁行业的快速发展。我国老龄化趋势日益明显，2020年，全国65岁及以上人口数量为1.68亿人，占总人口11.97%。根据中国发展基金会的数据，2025/2035/2050年，全国65岁及以上人口占比将分别达到15%/22.3%/27.9%。为积极应对人口老龄化发展趋势，我国制定了长期护理保险制度，目前长期护理保险制度试点城市达49个。目前国内成人失禁用品行业市场集中度较低，市场参与者众多，产品的生产、销售比较分散，未来新兴零售渠道的发展，将改变行业的竞争格局。我国成人失禁用品以线下实体店零售为主，线上渠道占比不断提高。 China: aging uptrend, growing long-term-care insurance policies, broad prospects The country’s adult incontinence industry is expanding rapidly, driven by an aging population and policy support. China has 168m people who are aged 65 and older, who account for 11.97% of the population. This demographic will account for 15/22.3/27.9% of the population by 2025/35/50E, according to China Development Foundation data. In preparation, China has established a long-term-care insurance system, which is currently piloted in 49 cities. Market concentration of adult incontinence products is currently low, with many companies and scattered production and sales networks. We expect to see the industry’s competitive structure evolve along with emerging retail channels. Currently, most of China’s adult incontinence products are sold in offline stores while the proportion of online channels continues to increase. 投资建议 / Investment Ideas 风险提示：长护险政策效果不达预期，疫情反复风险、原材料价格波动风险 Risks include: unexpected effects of long-term-care insurance policies; pandemic resurgence; and raw material price fluctuations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 免责声明 分析师声明 本出版物署名分析师在此声明：本报告所表述的所有观点均准确地反映了分析师对目标证券和发行人的个人看法。分析师所得报酬的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。分析师所得报酬的任何部分也不与天风证券股份有限公司（“天风证券”）或其下属公司开展的任何投资银行业务有联系。 一般声明 本出版物内出现的名词“天风集团”意指天风证券有限公司及其全球范围内的附属公司和分支公司，包括天风国际资产管理公司。本出版物及其内含的所有材料是由天风集团以及（如适用）在第一页或本出版物其他地方注明了的工作人员所属的一个或多个天风集团旗下公司准备的。 本出版物的所有内容均属机密仅供天风集团的客户使用，天风集团不因收件人收到本出版物而视其为天风集团的客户。本报告中的信息均来源自我们认为可靠的已公开数据，但天风集团对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告中的信息、意见等均仅供天风集团的客户参考，不构成所述证券买卖的出价或征价邀请或要约。该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本报告人员的具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求，在任何时候均不构成对任何人的个人推荐。天风集团的客户应当对本出版物中的信息和意见进行独立评估，并应同时考虑各自的投资目的、财务状况和特定需求，必要时就法律、商业、财务、税收等方面咨询专家的意见。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，天风集团及/或其关联人员均不承担任何法律责任。鉴于本报告可能开放于任何受众，本报告仅提供于有能力独立判断投资风险,能对自己投资决策有独立判断能力，并能根据自己对潜在投资、市场因素和其他投资考虑标准的独立判断来做出投资决策的收件人。 本出版物所载的意见、评估及预测仅为本出版物发布日的观点和判断。该等意见、评估及预测无需通知即可随时更改。过往的表现亦不应作为日后表现的预示和担保。在不同时期，天风集团可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本报告中不含任何对预测收益的一定可以实现的表达或保证。在分析当中有决定收益的相关假设。这些假设的改变可能对本报告预测的收益产生重大影响。 天风集团的销售人员、交易人员以及其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准、采用不同的分析方法而口头或书面发表与本出版物意见及建议不一致的市场评论和/或交易观点。天风集团没有将此意见及建议向报告所有接收者进行更新的义务。天风集团的资产管理部门、自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本出版物中的意见或建议不一致的投资决策。 特别声明 天风集团对于在研究业务当中可能产生的利益冲突有着完备的辨识和管理章程。天风集团的分析师以及其他参与本研究出版物撰写和宣传的员工有着独立于天风集团投资银行业务线的管理体系。投资银行、自营交易以及研究业务各自之间有着信息壁垒，确保任何机密以及/或者价格敏感信息被妥善处置。 本报告中所示分析师可能不时与我们的客户（包括天风集团销售员、交易员和其他专家）讨论各种交易策略，其中提及的交易策略可能会对本报告讨论的股票证券价格市场价格产生短期影响的助动因素或事件。这些可能与分析师对股票的预期价格产生抵触。但是任何此类的交易策略不同于也不会影响分析师对股票的基本评级。 在适用法律许可的情况下，天风集团可能会持有本报告中提及公司所发行的证券并进行交易，也可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。因此，投资者应当考虑到天风集团及/或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突，投资者请勿将本出版物视为投资或其他决定的唯一参考依据。 中国：本出版物在中华人民共和国（除开香港、澳门和台湾地区）由天风证券有限公司发布。天风证券股份有限公司根据中国证券监督管理委员会合法的经营业务许可运营， 当中含证券投资咨询业务。 香港：本出版物在香港由天风国际资产管理有限公司发布。天风资产管理有限公司是受香港证券及期货事务监察委员会监管并在其核准下开展证券及期货条例第571章内的受管4号牌业务（证券咨询服务），5号牌业务（期货咨询服务）以及9号牌业务（资产管理服务）。香港地区读者有任何关于本出版物的疑义可以直接咨询本公司香港销售代表。 其他司法管辖地区：研究出版物在其他司法管辖地区下的发布可能会受限于当地适用之法规，但在合规于特定司法管辖下的法律法规后会变得可行。本研究出版物不针对或旨在分发于任何属于或位于任何分布，出版，供应或使用此类研究出版物属违法之地区，州，国家或其他司法管辖区的公民或居民的任何个人或实体。 评级定义 投资评级 类别 说明 评级 体系 股票投资评级 在报告发布日期后的6个月内，相对同期该股票的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅 买入 预期股价相对收益20%以上 增持 预期股价相对收益10%到20% 中立 预期股价相对收益-10%到10% 持有 预期股价相对收益-10% 行业投资评级 在报告发布日期后的6个月内，相对同期该行业的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅 强于大市 预期行业指数涨幅5% 中性 预期行业指数涨幅 -5%到5% 弱于大市 预期行业指数涨幅 -5% 管辖区 用于定义评级的指数 中国大陆 沪深300指数 中国-香港 恒生指数 中国-澳门 恒生指数 美国 标准普尔500指数 本出版物版权归天风集团所有。任何未经天风集团书面允许的发布、复制、出版以及引用均属未授权行为。 Disclaimer Analyst Statement Each research analyst identified in this publicationcertifies that all of the views expressed in this publication by such analystaccurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subjectsecurities and issuers. In addition, each research analyst identified in thispublication certifies that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is orwill be, directly or indirectly related to the specific investmentrecommendations or views expressed in this publication, nor is it tied to anyspecific investment banking transactions performed by Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltdor any other affiliates and subsidiaries globally. General Disclosures The term "TF Group" used in thispublication refers to Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates andsubsidiaries globally, including TFI Asset Management Limited (CE No.: ASF056).This publication and all materials contained in it has been prepared by the TFGroup and, if applicable, with the contributions of one or more TF Groupentities whose employees are specified on page 1 or identified elsewhere in thepublication. The contents contained in this publication isconfidential and only for the use of clients of TF Group. TF Group will notdeem a recipient as its client by reason only of their receiving thispublication. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to bereliable, but TF Group does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Theinformation and opinions contained herein are provided for TF Group clients’reference only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell or thesolicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Theinformation and opinions contained herein do not take into account theparticular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of anyrecipient. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or theopinions expressed herein constitute a personal recommendation to anyone. TFGroup clients are advised to make their own independent evaluation of theinformation contained in this publication, consider their own individualinvestment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consulttheir own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business,financial, tax and other aspects if necessary. TF Group shall not be liable inany manner whatsoever for any consequences of any reliance thereon or usagethereof. To the extent this material is provided to any recipient, thismaterial is provided solely on the basis that the recipient has the capabilityto independently evaluate investment risk and is exercising independentjudgment in evaluating investment decisions in that its investment decisionswill be based on its own independent assessment of the opportunities and riskspresented by a potential investment, market factors and other investmentconsiderations. Opinions, speculations and predictions contained inthis publication reflect opinions held, and speculations and predictions made,at the time of publication. Such opinions, speculations and predictions aresubject to change and may be amended without any notification. Unless statedotherwise, any performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance shall not be considered as areliable indication of future performance. At different periods, TF Group mayrelease publications which are inconsistent with the opinions, speculations andpredictions contained herein. Norepresentation or warranty is made that any returns indicated will be achieved.Certain assumptions may have been made in the analysis which has resulted inany returns detailed herein. Changes to the assumptions may have a materialimpact on any returns detailed. TF Group’ssalespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or writtenmarket commentary and/or trading ideas that may be inconsistent with, and reachdifferent conclusions from, the recommendations and opinions presented in thispublication. Such ideas or recommendations reflect the different assumptions,views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and TF Group isunder no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendationsare brought to the attention of any recipient of this publication. TF Group’sasset management area, proprietary trading desks and other investing businessesmay make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations oropinions expressed in this publication. SpecialDisclosures TF Group has procedures in place toidentify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise inconnection with its research business. TF Group’s analysts and other employeeswho are involved in the preparation and dissemination of research publicationsoperate and have a management reporting line independent of TF Group’sInvestment Banking business. Information barrier procedures are in placebetween the Investment Banking, proprietary trading, and research businesses toensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled inan appropriate manner. The analysts and/or Research Support namedin the publications, as well as TF Group’s salespeople, traders, and otherprofessionals, may have, from time to time, discussed with our clients,including TF Group’s salespeople, traders, and other professionals, or maydiscuss in the publications, trading strategies that reference catalysts or eventsthat may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securitiesdiscussed in the publications, which impact may be directionally counter to theanalysts’ published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such tradingstrategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts’ fundamental equityrating for such stocks as described herein. To the extent permitted by applicablelaws, TF Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securitiesof companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to performinvestment banking, financial consulting, financial products and variousfinancial services for those companies. Therefore, TF Group’s clients should beaware that TF Group and/or its associated person(s) may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this publication and the opinionsexpressed herein. TF Group’s clients are advised not to rely on the opinionscontained in this publication when making any decision, including without limitationany investment decision. Hong Kong: This publication is distributed in Hong Kongby TFI Asset Management Limited, which is regulated by the Securities andFutures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) and is licensed for the conduct ofRegulated Activity Type 4 (Advising on Securities), Type 5 (Advising on FuturesContracts), and Type 9 (Asset Management) of Part V of the Securities andFutures Ordinance (Cap. 571) (“SFO”). Queries concerning this publication from readers in Hong Kong should bedirected to our Hong Kong sales representatives. Singapore:This publication is distributed in Singapore by TFI Asset Management Limited.It is only intended for, and may be distributed only to, institutionalinvestors in Singapore (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter289 of Singapore). Recipients of this publication should not further distributethis publication to any person that is not an institutional investor. United States of America:This publication is distributed in the United States by TFI Asset ManagementLimited pursuant to Rule 15a-6 under the United States Securities Exchange Actof 1934. Distribution is restricted to"Major U.S. Institutional Investors" only (as defined in Rule15a-6. TFI Asset Management Limited isnot a U,S, registered broker-dealer. The analyst(s) listed on the first page ofthis publication is (are) not registered or qualified as a research analystwith the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and are not subject toU.S. FINRA Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with companies that are thesubject of this research report; public appearances; and trading securities bya research analyst. Other Jurisdictions:The distribution of research publications in other jurisdictions may berestricted by law and such reports will be made available in otherjurisdictions pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations in thoseparticular jurisdictions. The researchpublications are not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by,any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in anylocality, state, country or other jurisdictions where such distribution,publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Ratings Definitions Investment Ratings Category Description Ratings System Stock investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Stock in the same period Buy Expected relative return over stock price above 20% Accumulate Expected relative return over stock price between 10% and 20% Neutral Expected relative return over stock price between -10% and 10% Sell Expected relative return over stock price below -10% Industry investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Industry in the same period Outperform Expected increase of industry index over 5% Neutral Expected increase of industry index between -5% and 5% Underperform Expected increase of industry index below -5% Jurisdictions Index Used for Ratings Definitions China Mainland CSI 300 Index China-Hong Kong Hang Seng Index China-Marco Hang Seng Index USA Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Copyright of the publications belong to TFGroup. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication,release or quotation is prohibited without TF Group’s written permission.

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）