新兴产业——万里扬储能专题报告:电力辅助服务商业化领导者

（以下内容从天风证券《新兴产业——万里扬储能专题报告:电力辅助服务商业化领导者》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Emerging Markets 新兴产业——万里扬储能专题报告： 电力辅助服务商业化领导者 Wanliyang energy storage special report: leading the commercialization of power ancillary services 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 万里扬能源科技：电力辅助服务商业化领导者 公司成立于2019年，是一家以提供灵活电力调节能力为核心的高科技企业，公司主要从事储能电站投资和运营、电力市场现货交易、电力安全测试等业务，致力于为新能源提供全景技术支撑、为电力系统提供柔性调节能力以及为用户提供零碳用能解决方案，赋予电力调节能力新的实现途径以及进一步完善了储能商业模式。2021年11月万里扬公告拟以现金方式、净资产定价依据收购万里扬能源科技51%的股权，成为公司控股股东，打造上市公司“自主变速箱”+“储能业务”的双主业模式。 Wanliyang: a leader in the commercialization of power ancillary services Zhejiang Wanliyang (002434 CH, BUY), a high-tech company founded in 2019, has a core business in flexible power regulation. It is mainly engaged in energy storage power station investments and operations, power spot market transactions and power safety testing. It provides wide-spectrum technological support services in the new energy market. With flexible regulation capabilities in power systems, it provides users with zero-carbon energy solutions and offers new ways to acquire power regulation capabilities to upgrade energy storage business models. In November 2021, Wanliyang announced its intention to acquire 51% of Wanliyang Energy Technology in cash. Based on net asset pricing, it would become the latter’s controlling shareholder. For investors, the listed company gives exposure to a dual-pronged business model, incorporating independent transmission and energy storage. 电力行业：从“计划”到“市场化”，我国电力系统的演变 -建设我国新型电力系统：可再生能源发电量占比增加，电力系统迎来挑战。新能源发电比例持续提升，同时新型能源的装机容量还在持续增加，未来随着新能源持续高比例的接入，风电、光伏等新型能源的随机性、波动性将对电网的消纳能力以及运行稳定性带来挑战。 Electrical power: China’s market evolves from planning to market-oriented -China’s new energy mechanism: the proportion of renewable energy generation has increased and comes with challenges. The proportion of new energy generation continues to increase and installed capacities continue to increase. As new energy rises in proportion, the randomness and volatility of new energy sources such as wind power and solar would raise challenges to grid capacity and operational stability. -健全我国电力市场化机制：推动辅助服务市场化，完善储能商业模式。自2021年起，党中央、国务院相继印发了推动电力市场化等相关重要文件，明确要求完善中长期市场、现货市场和辅助服务市场衔接机制，大力提升电力系统综合调节能力，推进适应能源结构转型的电力市场机制建设，辅助服务市场化机制逐步建立，储能商业模式进一步完善。 -我国辅助市场进程：从“无”到“有”、从“计划”到“市场”。新型电力系统下的辅助服务市场已明确其基本原则：“谁提供、谁获利；谁受益、谁承担”。根据国际经验电力辅助服务费用一般在全社会总电费的3%以上，预计2021/2022/2023年我国辅助市场规模分别可达到416/546/688亿元。 -Enhancing China’s electricity marketization mechanism: marketize ancillary services and upgrade energy storage business models. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have issued related key documents since 2021 to promote the marketization of electricity power, which require improvements in the convergence mechanism for the spot and auxiliary service markets in the medium to long term. It would raise the comprehensive regulation capacity of the power system, enabling a power market that is adapted to the energy restructure. This would gradually establish a market-oriented mechanism for ancillary services and improve the energy storage business model. -Ancillary market progress: from ‘off’ to ‘on’; from plans to the market. The ancillary service market under the new power system has a clear basic principle: whoever provides will profit; whoever benefits will bear the load. According to global experience, the cost of electricity ancillary services is generally more than 3% of the total cost of residential electricity, and we expect the scale of China‘s ancillary market to reach RMB41.6bn/54.6bn/68.8bn in 2021/22/23E. 竞争优势：先发优势+技术优势+运营优势 -先发优势：公司深耕灵活电力调节业务多年，作为以新型储能主体参与到辅助市场的先行者，公司在地理位置、客户资源积累等方面先发优势显著。万里扬先后于广东、甘肃等省份投运多个发电侧储能电站，并均为当地区域首发项目； -技术优势：技术优势是灵活电力调节能力的核心，公司基于自研“电力大数据平台+市场镜像仿真引擎+人工智能预测引擎”（一平台双引擎）的电力市场全景仿真决策系统和新型储能系统集成以及市场运营一体化平台，通过“智能经济优化调度引擎”以及“云边协同的控制技术”可实现新型储能系统的可靠控制和收益最大化。 Competitive advantage: first mover, tech know-how and operational edge -First mover: Wanliyang has operated in the flexible power regulation business for many years. As a pioneer of the ancillary market with new energy storage entities, the company has significant first-mover advantages in terms of geography and customers. Wanliyang operates a number of power generation energy storage power stations in Guangdong, Gansu and other provinces, each of which was the first project in its local area. -Technological capability: Tech know-how is at the core of flexible power regulation capability. Wanliyang’s power market panoramic simulation and decision-making system is based on its independently developed big data power platform, market mirror simulation and AI prediction engines (i.e. one platform and two engines), as well as new energy storage system integration and its market operation integration platform. Through its intelligent economic optimization scheduling engine and cloud-based collaborative control technology, it provides reliable control of the new energy storage system and is able to maximize revenue. -运营优势：公司已在广东、甘肃等省份投运 4个发电侧储能电站，合计装机约 40MW，运营经验丰富；同时已签协议拟投资建设的储能电站合计装机约 1GW。凭借先发优势以及技术优势，在电力系统中，公司对于电力价格预测、电力市场交易、运行策略优化，电网调频调峰以及电网稳定控制等方面均可有效的高效运行，最终形成三位一体形成立体化的综合竞争优势。 -Operational strengths: The company operates four power-generation energy storage power stations in Guangdong, Gansu and other provinces, with a total installed capacity of about 40MW. It has signed agreements to invest in and build energy storage power stations with a total installed capacity of about 1GW. With its first-mover and tech advantages in the power market, the company effectively and efficiently predicts power prices, facilitates power market transactions, optimizes its operation strategy, regulates power grid frequency and peak, and control power grid stability. This three-in-one system gives it comprehensive competitive advantages. 投资建议 / Investment Ideas 投资建议： 仅考虑变速器业务，我们预计公司21/22/23年实现营收72.5/87.0/104.9亿元，净利润7.3/9.2/11.6亿元，维持“买入”评级。同时，公司完成万里扬能源科技储能业务的收购之后，其新能源产业布局进一步拓宽，未来储能业务的跨越式发展将为公司带来显著业绩弹性，在为公司形成新的增长点的同时显著提升公司整体抗风险能力。 Investment ideas Factoring only the transmission business, we expect Wanliyang to generate revenue of RMB7.25bn/8.70bn/10.49bn and net profit of RMB730m/920m/1.16bn in 2021/22/23E. We maintain our BUY rating. Its new energy footprint has expanded with the completion of the acquisition of the energy storage business of Wanliyang Energy Technology,. 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