电气设备——隆基股份再思考:业绩弹性在哪里?估值弹性在哪里

（以下内容从天风证券《电气设备——隆基股份再思考:业绩弹性在哪里?估值弹性在哪里》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Electrical Equipment 电气设备——隆基股份再思考： 业绩弹性在哪里？估值弹性在哪里 LONGi rethink: we look at its profit and valuation elasticity 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis -市场对隆基的担忧：17-20年是隆基大年，单晶替代多晶，硅片业务技术领先优势+成本曲线陡峭，渗透率提升，是对抗行业通缩的最好品种。而21年至今，硅片成本曲线开始黏合，市场担心硅片环节优势减弱+组件一体化逻辑各公司差异不大（都是盈利回升+市占率提升+中期看品牌），业绩弹性和估值弹性不足。 而我们认为：1）硅片业务确实增速下滑，悲观情况下21-25年盈利持平；2）但，一方面组件一体化竞争要素是品牌（产品+渠道）和成本（技术+供应链管理），隆基位列前茅，市占率提升+降本超预期可带来业绩弹性，且能力有望复制到新业务中；另一方面，BIPV和制氢设备等新业务，我们预计将复刻公司在单晶组件领域布局的思路，即通过技术进步提高产品性价比，做大下游蛋糕，同时通过上游制造环节的领先获取收益，为公司长期增长提供动力，带来估值弹性。 -Market concerns about LONGi: 2017-20 was an important period for LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH, BUY), marked by monocrystalline replacing polycrystalline, silicon wafer technology leadership despite a steep cost curve, and rising penetration. This ideal set of circumstances positioned it well to fight industry deflation. Since 2021, silicon wafer cost curves have begun to converge, and the market is worried that competitive advantages would weaken as investment rationale under component integration would not differ much between companies (with all of them experiencing profit recovery, market share increase and brand building in the medium term), as well as profit elasticity and Insufficient valuation elasticity. We believe that 1) the growth rate of the silicon wafer business has declined and expect profitability to remain flat in 2021-25E under pessimistic assumptions. 2) The elements of component integration competition are brand (products and channels) and cost (technology and supply chain management), where LONGi leads the market. Above-expectation market share increase and cost reduction could bring profit elasticity and it could replicate its capabilities into new businesses, such as BIPV and hydrogen production equipment. The company‘s idea of entering into monocrystalline modules is driven by a need to improve product cost-effectiveness through technological progress, enlarge its downstream market pie and gain profit via upstream manufacture leadership. This provides the impetus for long-term growth and adds valuation elasticity. 1、业绩弹性在哪里？ -硅片业务盈利降到多少？悲观预期下增速如何？在22年需求大年背景下，我们认为硅片价格战有底限（头部厂商可完全满足下游客户需求，同时保持盈利），在保守假设下，隆基22年硅片盈利或达7分/W+，硅片+组件盈利有望达120亿元+。往未来看，虽单瓦盈利受成本曲线粘合影响出现下滑，但凭需求增长以及公司市占率的提升（硅片价格战时隆基利润更高，可凭现金流优势扩产），悲观情况下也可实现以量补利，21-25年外售硅片业务盈利持平。此外，N型硅片对品质要求高，二线厂商需要学习时间，因此未来实际盈利或好于预期。 1. How do you view the company’s profit elasticity? -What are profit levels in the silicon wafer business? What are the growth rates under a pessimistic scenario? With the high projected demand in 2022E, we believe that there will be a floor for the wafer price war (leading manufacturers would fully meet demand by downstream customers while maintaining profitability). Under conservative assumptions, LONGi‘s 2022E wafer profit could amount to over 7 cents/W, with a wafer and module profit of over RMB12bn. Looking ahead, although per-W profit is affected by the cost curve decline, the company’s demand growth and market share (in a wafer price war LONGi‘s profits are higher than others due to its production expansion and cash flow advantages), so even in a pessimistic scenario, it can utilize volume to boost profit so that we see flat export wafer profit over 2021-25E. In addition, N-type silicon wafers have high quality requirements, and second-tier manufacturers need time to learn them, so LONGi‘s actual future earnings could turn out better than expected. -业绩弹性来自哪里：（1）量：公司组件全球品牌渠道逐步建立（我们预计国内招标中市占率达28%，海外出货占比与海外装机占比接近），领先同业，看好22年行业需求（下游价格接受度提升）+公司市占率提升超预期（预计硅片45%+，组件30%）。（2）利：降本（通过薄片化、少银化等手段）&产品升级（21年不断打破N型电池效率世界纪录）为公司带来单瓦盈利向上弹性。 -How is its profit elasticity derived? (1) Volume: The company has established global brand channels for its components (we estimate that its market share in domestic bidding is 28%, and the proportion of overseas shipments is close to that of overseas installed capacity). It leads the industry, and we are optimistic about industry demand in 2022E (increased downstream price acceptance) and that the company‘s market share will increase more than expected (expected 45%+ for silicon wafers and 30% for components). (2) Profit: Cost reduction (through the thinning trend and silver reduction, etc.) and product upgrades (it continuously broke global records for N-type battery efficiency in 2021) could increase elasticity in profit per watt. 2、估值弹性在哪里？ -短期看，BIPV、制氢业务22年分别预计可贡献7、6亿元利润（占公司总利润的4%左右）； -中期看，BIPV业务24年预计可贡献16亿利润（23-24年复合增速50%+），在公司整体利润中占比约6%，而制氢业务25年预计可贡献34亿利润（23-25年复合增速80%），在公司整体利润中占比约11%； -远期看，制氢、BIPV业务市场空间广阔，足够长期发展。 2. What about its valuation elasticity? -In the short term, we expect the BIPV and hydrogen production businesses to contribute RMB700m and RMB600m in profits in 2022E (accounting for about 4% of total profits). -In the medium term, the BIPV business could contribute RMB1.6bn in profits in 2024E (CAGR of 50%+ in 2023-24E), accounting for about 6% of the company‘s total profit. The hydrogen production business could contribute RMB3.4bn profit in 2025E (CAGR of 80% in 2023-25E), accounting for about 11% of its total profit. -In the long term, market potential for hydrogen production and BIPV is broad and we see sufficient scope for long-term development. 投资建议 / Investment Ideas 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，政策落地不及预期，全球贸易摩擦，测算仅供参考，行业竞争程度超预期。 Risks include: lower-than-expected downstream demand; lower-than-expected policy implementation; and the impact of global trade friction; and more intense competition than expected. 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