天天说流感化,流感的死亡率究竟是多少?_公众号研报

（以下内容从华创证券《天天说流感化,流感的死亡率究竟是多少?》研报附件原文摘录）
　　全球：Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics 大于65岁死亡率在万分之五-千分之一水平，小于65岁死亡率低于万分之一。美国：CDC披露流感数据，死亡率大致在千分之一水平。国内：第1篇，2021年发表的荟萃分析，Influenza？associated disease burden in China: a systematic review and meta？analysis 文章搜索了3个英文和4个中文数据库，系统评价和荟萃分析2005年至2019年发表的数据。结果显示：合并的流感相关全因死亡率，全年龄组14.33每10万人，≥65岁年龄组122.79每10万人，小于65岁年龄组2.67每10万人。国内流感，全年龄死亡风险在万分之一水平，大于65岁死亡风险在千分之一水平，小于65岁死亡率约十万分之二。第2篇，2019年发表的荟萃分析：The mortality burden ofinfluenza in China: a systematic review. A total of 17 literatures were included, andthe basic information to descriptive characteristics, methodology of modelingand the corresponding results were extracted. Results: All the17 studies adopted indirect statistical models, with 14 of which adopted theregression model, and all the research index was excess mortality. All causes(16 studies), respiratory and circulatory diseases (14 studies) and pneumoniaand influenza (10 studies) were the main causes of death associated withinfluenza. Influenza associated mortality burden in the elderly was higher,with the lowest excess mortality rates of all causes, respiratory andcirculatory diseases, pneumonia and influenza being 49.57, 30.80 and 0.69 per100 000 people, and the highest rates being 228.16, 170.20 and 30.35 per 100000 people, respectively. In the non-elderly, the corresponding lowest rateswere -0.27, -0.08 and 0.04 per 100 000 people respectively, and the highestrates were 3.63, 2.6 and 0.91 per 100 000 people, respectively. The influenza-relatedexcess mortality was higher in the north, with a minimum of 7.8 per 100 000 anda maximum of 18.0 per 100 000, and slightly lower in the south, with a minimumof 6.11 per 100 000 and a maximum of 18.7 per 100 000. There were alsodifferences in deaths caused by different influenza virus subtypes, withinfluenza A(H3N2) and influenza B virus possibly posing a heavier mortalityburden. Conclusions: Studies on influenza mortality burden ismainly based on indirect model and urban level in China. The mortality burdenof influenza in the elderly, the northern and subtype A(H3N2) and B were moresevere.

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