兰剑智能: 智能仓储物流产业先行者,研发能力铸就竞争优势
（以下内容从天风证券《兰剑智能: 智能仓储物流产业先行者,研发能力铸就竞争优势》研报附件原文摘录）
BlueSword Intelligent Technology (688557 CH) 智能仓储物流产业先行者， 研发能力铸就竞争优势 Initiating coverage: intelligent warehousing and logistics pioneer with R&D edge TP:RMB49.33 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis “惟有创新”的价值理念带动公司产品线不断完善，聚焦高端客户。 公司2017年以来，公司的研发费用率始终维持在8%左右，研发人员占员工总数比超30%。公司产品已成功应用于新能源、通信、消费品、军工等各个行业，是目前国内少数实现物流设备整体出口海外发达国家的厂商，拥有中烟、宁德时代、宝洁、牧原等头部客户资源。 ‘Only innovation’ strategy drives product upgrades; high-end market focus BlueSword’s R&D team accounts for more than 30% of its employees and it has maintained an R&D expense ratio of around 8% since 2017. Its products are deployed in industries such as new energy, communications, consumer goods and the military. One of the few domestic manufacturers to export logistics whole equipment to other developed countries, its customers include China Tobacco, CATL, Procter & Gamble and Muyuan. 行业有望在两个矛盾点和三个催化剂之下步入黄金发展期。在物流总需求提升与总费用下降的矛盾、用工招工难的矛盾，以及我国高端制造持续集群化发展、智能仓储物流设备国产替代趋势已起、制造业与物流业深度融合的催化下，我国智能仓储物流行业有望步入高速发展期。软件层面，虽然大多企业已经运用信息化软件，但是还缺乏系统性；硬件层面，目前我国仍有近一半企业尚未引入自动化设备，中性假设下，2025年面向制造业的智能仓储物流设备市场空间有望超2500亿。 2 hurdles, 3 catalysts: industry set to enter growth cycle Current market dynamics – growing total demand for logistics and declining total cost, labor recruitment difficulties and the emergence of high-end manufacturing clusters in China – have birthed a domestic substitution market in intelligent storage and logistics equipment and the integration of the manufacturing and logistics industries. We believe that China’s intelligent storage and logistics industry will enter a rapid growth cycle. Although most companies already use data software, many have yet to deploy system software. As for hardware, nearly half of China’s companies have yet to embrace automation equipment. Our neutral assumptions show that intelligent warehousing and logistics equipment manufacture market potential will exceed 250bn by 2025E. 公司产品达到国际先进水平，技术优势、多行业的布局、背靠山大的工程师红利有望带动公司实现优于行业整体的增长。我们抓取了公司的设备参数并与国际巨头大福、德马泰克等公司的设备进行比较，我们发现公司设备与软件在国际上具备较强竞争力，部分核心参数甚至领先国际巨头，且公司在组织架构上独立设立了研究院，人员上核心技术团队稳定、董事长吴耀华现仍担任山大博导，为公司产品和技术的持续更新迭代打下基础。 Global-standard products; tech edge; multiple markets; collab with Shandong U Benchmarked against global giants such as Daifuku and Dematic, we found that BlueSword’s equipment and software are competitive. It has established an independent research institute with a stable core tech team. Chairman Wu Yaohua also serves as a doctoral supervisor at Shandong University, laying the foundation for continuous updation and iteration of the company’s products and technologies. 从在手订单规模出发，公司Q4业绩有望创历史新高，且超级工厂投产为公司维持高增长打下基础。历史上来看，公司年末的在手订单与次年营业收入高度相关，而公司前三季度的业绩表现较为疲软，或意味着公司Q4将迎来21年项目的集中交付期，单季度营业收入有望达到3亿元以上，创出历史新高；此外，截至2021H1，公司在手订单金额已达9.6亿，中性假设H2公司在手订单净增-2亿元，则年末在手订单仍有望较20年7月增长40%以上，虽然项目大型化可能拉长交付周期，营收增速表现不及在手订单增速，但随着公司超级工厂的投产，公司的产能天花板亦将继续提升，公司业务规模及在手订单规模有望持续实现高增长。 We expect a 4Q peak; commissioning of super factory should sustain high growth Historically, the company’s in-hand orders at the end of the year correlate closely to the following year’s revenue, with the first three quarters typically weaker. The back-end loaded cycle could be due to 4Q being the project delivery period and 2021 projects could have brought in single-quarter revenue of more than RMB300m, a record high. In as of 1H21, BlueSword’s in-hand orders amount to RMB960m. Our neutral assumptions show that although 2H in-hand orders would decline by a net RMB200m, year-end orders would exceed those in July 2020 by more than 40%. Although project upscaling has lengthened the delivery cycle, the revenue growth rate would not be as good as the orders-in-hand growth rate. However, the roll-out of its super factory would raise production capacity. Thus, we expect business scale and the scale of orders in hand to maintain high growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值： 随着我国制造业向高端化转型，生产的柔性化及数字化对仓储物流提出了更高的要求，智能化的仓储物流设备正逐步成为刚需；而对于传统制造业，由于人力成本的节节攀升，相关设备的性价比亦有望愈加凸显，我们认为行业已经逐步迈入黄金发展期，兰剑智能作为本土起步较早的智能仓储物流设备企业，公司产品力达到国际领先水平，可持续发展能力较强，随着超级工厂的投产，产能瓶颈亦有望被打开，预计公司2021-2023年实现归母净利润0.86、1.25、1.86亿元，综合考虑绝对估值与相对估值，给予公司目标价49.33元/股，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级！ Valuation With China’s manufacturing industry shifting towards the high-end market and production elasticity and digitalization raising warehousing and logistics requirements, intelligent warehousing and logistics equipment have gradually entered into inelastic demand. In traditional manufacturing, with rising labor cost rise, equipment price-to-performance ratio would become more of a factor. We believe the industry has entered a high-growth cycle. BlueSword, as an early mover in the intelligent warehousing and logistics equipment market, is making products that meet leading global standards and we see sustainable development ahead. The commissioning of its super factory would resolve production capacity bottlenecks. We expect net profit of RMB86m/125m/186m in 2021/22/23E. Considering both absolute and relative valuations, we set a target price of RMB49.33 and hence initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：沿海危化品航运准入门槛下降，化工行业产品产量波动风险，公司危化品运输出现安全事故，燃油价格大幅上涨，业务快速多元化。 Risks include: falling entry barriers to the hazardous chemicals coastal shipping industry; production output fluctuations in the chemical industry; safety incidents in the company’s hazardous chemicals transportation; sharp rises in fuel prices; and rapid business diversification. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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BlueSword Intelligent Technology (688557 CH) 智能仓储物流产业先行者， 研发能力铸就竞争优势 Initiating coverage: intelligent warehousing and logistics pioneer with R&D edge TP:RMB49.33 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis “惟有创新”的价值理念带动公司产品线不断完善，聚焦高端客户。 公司2017年以来，公司的研发费用率始终维持在8%左右，研发人员占员工总数比超30%。公司产品已成功应用于新能源、通信、消费品、军工等各个行业，是目前国内少数实现物流设备整体出口海外发达国家的厂商，拥有中烟、宁德时代、宝洁、牧原等头部客户资源。 ‘Only innovation’ strategy drives product upgrades; high-end market focus BlueSword’s R&D team accounts for more than 30% of its employees and it has maintained an R&D expense ratio of around 8% since 2017. Its products are deployed in industries such as new energy, communications, consumer goods and the military. One of the few domestic manufacturers to export logistics whole equipment to other developed countries, its customers include China Tobacco, CATL, Procter & Gamble and Muyuan. 行业有望在两个矛盾点和三个催化剂之下步入黄金发展期。在物流总需求提升与总费用下降的矛盾、用工招工难的矛盾，以及我国高端制造持续集群化发展、智能仓储物流设备国产替代趋势已起、制造业与物流业深度融合的催化下，我国智能仓储物流行业有望步入高速发展期。软件层面，虽然大多企业已经运用信息化软件，但是还缺乏系统性；硬件层面，目前我国仍有近一半企业尚未引入自动化设备，中性假设下，2025年面向制造业的智能仓储物流设备市场空间有望超2500亿。 2 hurdles, 3 catalysts: industry set to enter growth cycle Current market dynamics – growing total demand for logistics and declining total cost, labor recruitment difficulties and the emergence of high-end manufacturing clusters in China – have birthed a domestic substitution market in intelligent storage and logistics equipment and the integration of the manufacturing and logistics industries. We believe that China’s intelligent storage and logistics industry will enter a rapid growth cycle. Although most companies already use data software, many have yet to deploy system software. As for hardware, nearly half of China’s companies have yet to embrace automation equipment. Our neutral assumptions show that intelligent warehousing and logistics equipment manufacture market potential will exceed 250bn by 2025E. 公司产品达到国际先进水平，技术优势、多行业的布局、背靠山大的工程师红利有望带动公司实现优于行业整体的增长。我们抓取了公司的设备参数并与国际巨头大福、德马泰克等公司的设备进行比较，我们发现公司设备与软件在国际上具备较强竞争力，部分核心参数甚至领先国际巨头，且公司在组织架构上独立设立了研究院，人员上核心技术团队稳定、董事长吴耀华现仍担任山大博导，为公司产品和技术的持续更新迭代打下基础。 Global-standard products; tech edge; multiple markets; collab with Shandong U Benchmarked against global giants such as Daifuku and Dematic, we found that BlueSword’s equipment and software are competitive. It has established an independent research institute with a stable core tech team. Chairman Wu Yaohua also serves as a doctoral supervisor at Shandong University, laying the foundation for continuous updation and iteration of the company’s products and technologies. 从在手订单规模出发，公司Q4业绩有望创历史新高，且超级工厂投产为公司维持高增长打下基础。历史上来看，公司年末的在手订单与次年营业收入高度相关，而公司前三季度的业绩表现较为疲软，或意味着公司Q4将迎来21年项目的集中交付期，单季度营业收入有望达到3亿元以上，创出历史新高；此外，截至2021H1，公司在手订单金额已达9.6亿，中性假设H2公司在手订单净增-2亿元，则年末在手订单仍有望较20年7月增长40%以上，虽然项目大型化可能拉长交付周期，营收增速表现不及在手订单增速，但随着公司超级工厂的投产，公司的产能天花板亦将继续提升，公司业务规模及在手订单规模有望持续实现高增长。 We expect a 4Q peak; commissioning of super factory should sustain high growth Historically, the company’s in-hand orders at the end of the year correlate closely to the following year’s revenue, with the first three quarters typically weaker. The back-end loaded cycle could be due to 4Q being the project delivery period and 2021 projects could have brought in single-quarter revenue of more than RMB300m, a record high. In as of 1H21, BlueSword’s in-hand orders amount to RMB960m. Our neutral assumptions show that although 2H in-hand orders would decline by a net RMB200m, year-end orders would exceed those in July 2020 by more than 40%. Although project upscaling has lengthened the delivery cycle, the revenue growth rate would not be as good as the orders-in-hand growth rate. However, the roll-out of its super factory would raise production capacity. Thus, we expect business scale and the scale of orders in hand to maintain high growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值： 随着我国制造业向高端化转型，生产的柔性化及数字化对仓储物流提出了更高的要求，智能化的仓储物流设备正逐步成为刚需；而对于传统制造业，由于人力成本的节节攀升，相关设备的性价比亦有望愈加凸显，我们认为行业已经逐步迈入黄金发展期，兰剑智能作为本土起步较早的智能仓储物流设备企业，公司产品力达到国际领先水平，可持续发展能力较强，随着超级工厂的投产，产能瓶颈亦有望被打开，预计公司2021-2023年实现归母净利润0.86、1.25、1.86亿元，综合考虑绝对估值与相对估值，给予公司目标价49.33元/股，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级！ Valuation With China’s manufacturing industry shifting towards the high-end market and production elasticity and digitalization raising warehousing and logistics requirements, intelligent warehousing and logistics equipment have gradually entered into inelastic demand. In traditional manufacturing, with rising labor cost rise, equipment price-to-performance ratio would become more of a factor. We believe the industry has entered a high-growth cycle. BlueSword, as an early mover in the intelligent warehousing and logistics equipment market, is making products that meet leading global standards and we see sustainable development ahead. The commissioning of its super factory would resolve production capacity bottlenecks. We expect net profit of RMB86m/125m/186m in 2021/22/23E. Considering both absolute and relative valuations, we set a target price of RMB49.33 and hence initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：沿海危化品航运准入门槛下降，化工行业产品产量波动风险，公司危化品运输出现安全事故，燃油价格大幅上涨，业务快速多元化。 Risks include: falling entry barriers to the hazardous chemicals coastal shipping industry; production output fluctuations in the chemical industry; safety incidents in the company’s hazardous chemicals transportation; sharp rises in fuel prices; and rapid business diversification. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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