盛航股份: 行业高门槛,公司高成长

（以下内容从天风证券《盛航股份: 行业高门槛,公司高成长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Nanjing ShengHang Shipping (001205 CH) 行业高门槛，公司高成长 Initiating coverage: High industry barriers and high company growth TP:RMB32.89 BUY (Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 行业高门槛铸就高盈利 沿海危化品航运准入门槛高，供需紧平衡，企业盈利能力强。沿海液货危险品航运，新增企业和新增运力门槛都较高。新增运力主要来自新增造船，而新增造船运力规模和指标分配每年由交通部批准。高门槛使行业内头部公司的ROE和ROIC普遍在10%以上。 High profitability due to high industry barriers The coastal hazardous chemical shipping industry has high entry barriers, a tight supply and demand balance, and robust profitability for companies. In the hazardous liquid cargo shipping business, thresholds are high for new companies and new capacities. Incremental new capacity mainly comes from new shipbuilding, with the Ministry of Communications approving the scale and quota allocations of new shipbuilding capacities every year. With the high thresholds, leading companies in the industry generally enjoy ROEs and ROICs of above 10%. 运输需求增长，集中度提升 头部危化品航运企业受益于运输需求增长，市场集中度提升。一方面，经济发展带动化工品需求持续增长，部分化工品的国产替代空间较大，大炼化项目陆续投产带动沿海危化品航运需求增长。另一方面，石化行业集中化、规模化发展，带动下游运输环节集中度提高；运力综合评审制度，有助于头部运输企业获得新增造船运力指标，运力集中度也在提高。 Increasing transportation demand and rising concentration As leading hazardous chemical shipping companies benefit from transportation demand growth, market concentration continues to rise. On the one hand, with economic development continually driving demand growth in chemicals and some chemicals having more potential for domestic substitution, large refining projects are entering production one after another to drive demand growth in coastal hazardous chemical shipping. On the other hand, rising concentration and scale of the petrochemical industry have increased the concentration of downstream transportation markets. The comprehensive evaluation system of transportation capacity helps market leaders to get new shipbuilding capacity quotas, so capacity concentration is also increasing. 买船和造船推动公司成长 盛航股份通过买船和造船实现运力扩张，份额提升。盛航股份的运力快速扩张，其中化学品船运力增长尤为明显。运力扩张主要来自购置同行船舶，往往先期租再购买；其次是建造新船。国内沿海化学品船航运市场集中度较低，未来盛航股份有望继续购置同行船舶。盛航股份在新增造船运力评审中排名靠前，未来有望继续获得新增造船指标。 Company buys and build ships to drive growth Shenghang expanded its capacity and market share by purchasing and building ships. Its capacity is expanding rapidly, particularly chemical tankers. Its capacity expansion has primarily come from buying ships from peers, usually after a period of renting; and also from shipbuilding. The concentration of the domestic coastal chemical tanker shipping market is relatively low, and we expect Shenghang to continue to purchase ships from its peers in the future. The company ranks high in new shipbuilding capacity reviews and we expect it will continue to obtain new shipbuilding quotas in the future. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测与估值： 买船和造船扩张运力，实现业绩高增长，预计2021-23年归母净利润1.33、1.72、2.29亿元。根据超额利润贴现和可比公司平均PE，给予2022年目标价32.89元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation We expect the company to buy and build ships to expand capacity and achieve high performance growth. We forecast net profit of RMB133m/172m/229m in 2021/22/23E. Based on excess profit discount and average peer PE, we set a target price of RMB32.89 and initiate coverage with a BUY call. 风险提示：沿海危化品航运准入门槛下降，化工行业产品产量波动风险，公司危化品运输出现安全事故，燃油价格大幅上涨，业务快速多元化。 Risks include: falling entry barriers to the hazardous chemicals coastal shipping industry; production output fluctuations in the chemical industry; safety incidents in the company’s hazardous chemicals transportation; sharp rises in fuel prices; and rapid business diversification. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. 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