济川药业: 儿科用药长跑健将,生长激素合作落地开启新征程

（以下内容从天风证券《济川药业: 儿科用药长跑健将,生长激素合作落地开启新征程》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical (600566 CH) 儿科用药长跑健将，生长激素合作落地开启新征程 Initiating coverage: going the distance in pediatric medicines; growth hormone collab spurs growth TP:RMB36.00 BUY (initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 深耕儿科用药领域逾二十载，积极进行业务转型 公司药品产品线主要围绕儿科、消化、呼吸等领域，布局中西医药、中药日化和中药保健品三大板块，覆盖五大管线：儿科、妇科、呼吸科、消化科、老年病。除药品业务外，公司子公司蒲地蓝日化主要从事蒲地蓝牙膏等日化产品业务，康煦源主要从事保健品业务。2021年11月，公司与天境生物签署长效生长激素TJ101独家合作协议，有望拓展儿科用药产品线。 Pediatric medicine producer still innovating after 20 years Jumpcan Pharma’s core products are pediatric, digestive and respiratory medicines. Three of its main divisions are Chinese and Western medicines; traditional Chinese medicines (TCM); and TCM care. Its product pipeline covers five treatment areas: pediatric, gynecological, respiratory, gastroenterological and geriatric. In TCM, subsidiary Jiangsu Pudilan Daily Chemical’s product series include Pudilan toothpastes and Kangxuyuan health care. In November 2021, Jumpcan signed an exclusive agreement with Tianjin Biotech to develop and sell long-acting growth hormone TJ101. This collaboration would expand its pediatric pipeline. 产品布局丰富，打造中西药并举的药品组合 公司主要产品为蒲地蓝消炎口服液、雷贝拉唑钠肠溶胶囊、小儿豉翘清热颗粒等。蒲地蓝消炎口服液是济川药业独家剂型的特色中药制剂，产品零售终端销售继续发力，医保目录调整逐步执行。蒲地蓝消炎口服液拥有良好的品牌认可度，在2020年中国城市公立医院、零售药店清热解毒类中成药市场占有率分别为16.74%和4.09%，位居行业前列。。小儿豉翘清热颗粒在2020中国城市公立医院、零售药店儿科感冒中成药市场占有率分别为60.43%和28.01%，凭借高质量循证证据和良好品牌形象实现销售快速增长。公司在中药领域品种储备丰富，黄龙止咳颗粒、三拗片、川芎清脑颗粒、甘海胃康胶囊等特色品种逐渐释放发展潜力。 Rich product matrix combines Chinese and Western medicines Jumpcan’s main products are Pudilan Anti-inflammatory Oral Liquid, Rabeprazole Sodium Enteric Capsules and Xiao’er Chiqiao Qingre Pellets. Pudilan Anti-inflammatory Oral Liquid is a special-dosage TCM product. Terminal retail sales are buoyant as the products are gradually listed in the insured medicines catalogue. In the heat and detox patented TCM category, Pudilan Anti-inflammatory Oral Liquid is well recognized as one of the market leaders. It accounted for 16.74% and 4.09% of the markets in China’s urban public hospitals and retail pharmacies respectively in 2020, while Xiao’er Chiqiao Qingre Pellets’ market shares were 60.43% and 28.01%. Rapid sales growth has been driven by efficacy and brand image. Jumpcan’s broad TCM product matrix includes Huanglong Cough Capsules, San Ao Pian, LigusticumWallichii Brain Clarity Pellets and Ganhai Stomach Capsules, which are gradually gaining traction. 多部门出台政策鼓励儿科用药研发，以满足儿科临床用药需求 2021年，国务院发布《关于印发中国妇女发展纲要和中国儿童发展纲要的通知》，指出鼓励儿童用药研发生产，加快儿童用药申报审批工作，扩大国家基本药物目录中儿科用药品种和剂型范围。儿科用药政策给国内儿科药市场带来新的采购需求，国内儿科医药公司迎来重大成长机遇。 New demand drivers: policies boost pediatric drug growth on R&D, clinical trials The State Council published a notice this year on “Chinese Women and Children Development Programs” with the stated aim of encouraging the R&D and production of pediatric medicines. It will speed up medicine application and approval processes so as to widen the product range and dosage forms on the National Essential Medicines List. The policy adds procurement demand drivers to China’s pediatric drugs market, bringing opportunities for its pediatric pharmaceutical companies. 与天境生物展开合作，迈入生长激素领域 2021年11月11日，济川药业与天境生物签署《独家开发、生产及销售合作协议》，天境生物将授予济川药业其TJ101在中华人民共和国大陆地区（不包括香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾）进行开发、生产、商业化的独家许可。济川药业拥有超过3500名专业销售团队，覆盖医院终端超23000家，有望借助公司渠道优势，促进产品推广。 Tianjing Biotechnology collaboration adds growth hormone business Jumpcan and Tianjing Biotechnology signed an exclusive agreement on 11 Nov 2021 to collaborate on development, production and sales. Tianjing Biotech grants rights to Jumpcan in the Mainland (i.e. excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) to develop, produce and market TJ101 products. Jumpcan has the channel advantage of a sales force of over 3,500 professionals, covering more than 23,000 terminal sales hospitals. 重点推荐/Recommendation 盈利预测与投资建议 我们预计公司 2021-2023年营业收入分别为72.33、80.43、85.10亿元，归母净利润分别为17.08、18.94、20.26亿元，采用可比公司PE相对估值法对公司进行估值，给予公司2021年PE为18.76倍，目标价为36元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We expect revenue to arrive at RMB7.23bn/8.04bn/8.51bn in 2021/22/23E, with net profit at RMB1.71bn/1.89bn/2.03bn. We value Jumpcan Pharma relative to peers and assign a PE of 18.76x, which derives a target price of RMB36. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：①产品销售推广不及预期；②合作代理生长激素产品存在研发及销售的不确定性；③核心药品价格波动的风险；④股票价格波动的风险。 Risks include: worse-than-expected results from product sales promotions; uncertainties related to collaborative R&D and sales agents in growth hormone products; price fluctuations in core drugs; and share price fluctuations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. 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