久祺股份: 由ODM 走向自主品牌,乘电踏车之势加速成长

（以下内容从天风证券《久祺股份: 由ODM 走向自主品牌,乘电踏车之势加速成长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Joy Kie Corporation (300994 CH) 由ODM 走向自主品牌，乘电踏车之势加速成长 Initiating coverage: electric bicycle growth sparks business expansion from ODM to OBM TP:RMB69.60 BUY (initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 行业特点：格局松散，电踏车星星之火，成为新增长点 全球自行车需求约1.2亿辆，预计市场规模约2800亿元。行业格局松散，巨大机械为全球著名自行车制造商，2020年销量占比约3.7%，集中度较低的原因：1）产品个性化程度高（如应用场景、品牌喜好、购买力等） 2）各个国家自行车标准不同 。 Global bicycles: low market concentration; electric power provides new impetus We believe that global demand for bicycles is currently about 120m units, an annual market of about RMB280bn. In this fragmented market, global manufacturing leaders accounted for just 3.7% of sales in 2020, due to: 1) high product personalization (in terms of application scenarios, brand preferences and purchasing power) and 2) different national bicycle standards across the countries 类比电动车，电踏车为自行车行业带来新增量。 欧洲：2020年电踏车销量453.7万辆， 2015-2020年复合增速27%。美国：2020年销量约50-60万辆，同比翻番。美国电踏车处于发展初期，随着电踏车法规落地，预计未来三年电踏车增速有望达到50%。 Like electric motor scooters, electric bikes add momentum to bicycle industry Europe: sales came to 4.54m electric bicycles in 2020 on a CAGR of 27% from 2015 to 2020; with the US doubling sales to 500,000-600,000 vehicles. The US electric bicycle market is in an early stage of development; we believe that the implementation of electric bicycle regulations could drive a growth rate of 50% over the next three years. 轻资产运营，聚焦设计、品牌、渠道 自行车虽然属于制造业，但具有消费品属性，品牌、渠道为重要的护城河。从久祺、巨大机械的三费构成看，销售费用远高于管理、研发费用。虽然巨大机械为相对成熟的品牌，但推销费用率仍较高，2020年推销费用率达到9.3%，远高于管理费用率2.6%、研发费用率1.3%。 久祺深谙行业特点，聚焦于设计开发、品牌、渠道建设等关键环节，轻资产运营，外包生产为主、自主生产为辅。 Asset-light business: design, brand and channel focus Although bicycles are categorized under the manufacturing industry, their key competitive drivers are brand and channel, similar to consumer goods. Comparing the three main expense category structures of Joy Kie with Giant Bicycles, Joy Kie’s sales expenses are much higher than its management and R&D expenses. Giant is a mature brand but its sales expense ratio is relatively high at 9.3% in 2020, much higher than its management expense ratio of 2.6% and R&D expense ratio of 1.3%. We believe that Joy Kie shows a good grasp of industry dynamics with its focus on key factors such as design, development, branding, channel construction, asset-light operations, and it outsources most of its manufacturing, while its own production provides supplementary support. 久祺成长看点：拓品类、新渠道&自主品牌占比提升 拓品类：久祺从成人车、童车延伸至电踏车。2020年，久祺电动助力车平均单价1613元，是成人车的3.6倍，儿童车的6.8倍。电动助力车ASP远高于成人车、童车，能给公司带来更大业绩弹性。新渠道：相对于线下消费，线上消费者更注重品类多样、好评率，给新品牌切入消费者提供了可能性。线上毛利率远高于线下，2020年童车线上、线下业务毛利率分别为74.1%、16.7%。自主品牌：2018-2020年OBM在公司营收占比分别为10%、11%、16%。公司有Hiland、Joystar等自有品牌，在北美具有一定知名度。自有品牌直接面对终端消费者，不需要经过品牌商、代工厂等环节，可获得更高毛利率。 Growth drivers: product matrix expansion, new channels and higher OBM Product matrix: Joy Kie is expanding from adult and children’s bicycles to electric bicycles. In 2020, its electric bicycle ASP was RMB1,613, 3.6x that of adult bicycles and 6.8x that of children’s bicycles; electric bicycles add to its profit elasticity. Channels: Compared with the offline business, online consumers favor diverse categories and high product ratings, which eases the entry of new brands. The online gross margin is also much higher than offline. Its children’s bicycle gross profit margins in the online and offline channels were 74.1% and 16.7% respectively in 2020. OBM: Its original brand manufacturing segment accounted for 10/11/16% of total revenue in 2018/19/20 with its brands, Hiland and Joystar, well recognized in North America. Its OBM products go directly to end consumers, without brand, OEM or other middlemen, thus obtaining higher gross margins. 巨大机械、美利达成长之路：从OEM到自有品牌，聚焦高端市场 巨大机械、美利达创立初期都从OEM起步，积累生产、研发等能力，久祺成长路径较为相似。巨大机械采用自有品牌+直销模式，美利达采用合资+经销模式，2017年之后电踏车使两个公司业绩重回高增。目前来看，久祺与巨大机械的策略较为接近，针对不同市场、人群采用多品牌发展策略。在ODM方面，久祺也积累深厚，ODM、自有品牌有望成为久祺发展的双引擎，电踏车也有望显著增厚利润水平。 Giant and Merida: from OEM to OBM, focusing on the high-end market Both these companies started as original equipment manufacturers at the initial stage of their growth, while they developed production, R&D and other capabilities. Joy Kie has a similar growth path. Giant has an OBM and direct sales business model, while Merida has a JV and distribution model. After 2017, electric bicycles brought the two companies‘ back to high growth. Joy Kie‘s current strategy is close to that of Giant, where its multi-brand development serves its various markets and customer segments. Joy Kie has built a sizeable ODM business. We expect ODM and OBM to be its twin growth engines, where electric bicycles could significantly increase its profit levels. 重点推荐/Recommendation 盈利预测与投资建议 看好久祺品类扩张、布局新渠道、自有品牌比例提升。看2025年，我们预计久祺电踏车销量有望达到150-200万辆，贡献净利润3亿元，中长期成长空间广阔。预计21、22年归母净利润2.1、3亿元。给予2022年PE 45X，对应股价69.6元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We are optimistic about Joy Kie’s product matrix expansion as it deploys new channels and increases its OBM business. Looking ahead to 2025E, we expect sales to reach 1.5-2m units and generate net profit to arrive at RMB300m on broad medium and long-term growth potential. For 2021/22E, we expect net profit of RMB210m/300m. We assign a 45x PE for 2022E, which derives a target price of RMB69.6. Hence, we initiate coverage with a BUY call. 风险提示：自有品牌开拓不及预期、自行车行业需求大幅下降、海运费用维持高位、贸易摩擦、产品销量不及预期等。 Risks include: its OBM business not growing as expected; a sharp decline in demand for bicycles; high shipping costs; trade frictions; and weaker-than-expected product sales. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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