巨星科技: 国内手工具出海龙头,odm稳定增长+自有品牌快速扩张驱动成长

（以下内容从天风证券《巨星科技: 国内手工具出海龙头,odm稳定增长+自有品牌快速扩张驱动成长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Hangzhou Great Star Industrial (002444 CH) 国内手工具出海龙头，odm稳定增长+自有品牌快速扩张驱动成长 Initiating coverage: ODM and own brands drive growth of China’s leading hand tools exporter RMB:39.27 BUY (initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司是专业从事手动工具生产与销售的的国内龙头企业，已有20多年历史，稳居世界手工具行业前列。手工具业务是公司的主要业务，公司另有存储箱柜，激光测量仪器等业务。公司控制权集中，董事长控股公司。 Chinese hand tool market leader Great Star is also at the forefront of the global industry. It has plied the trade for more than 20 years. In addition to its main business of producing and selling hand tools, it handles storage bins and laser measuring tools. The chairman holds the controlling interest in a concentrated ownership structure. 工具行业历史悠久，行业龙头SWK的历史可以追溯到1843年，电动工具与手工具存在差异。工具行业可以分为手工具与电动工具，两者主要有两点差异：1、手工具与电动工具使用场景存在差异，互相无法完全替代。2、电动工具技术含量较高，单品价格较高。同时手工具行业sku较多，产品格局较为分散。 The tool industry began in 1843, when the origin of global leader Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) took root. The key differences between the two main categories of hand tools and power tools are: (1) they differ in applications and cannot completely replace each other. (2) Power tools require higher technical skills and command higher unit prices, while hand tools have more SKUs in a more fragmented market. 行业规模与趋势上，2020年工具行业规模670亿美元，手工具行业规模250亿美元。SWK与TTI是工具行业龙头，整体行业份额正在向龙头集中，巨星科技作为国内龙头，甩开竞争者一定身位差距。 The tool market is valued at about USD67bn as of 2020, with hand tools at USD25bn. SWK and Techtronic Industries (TTI) are the industry leaders; market concentration is such that the leaders dominate market share. Great Star ensures its domestic leadership by staying ahead of competitors. 工具行业需求景气，供应链依赖中国。下游消费场景主要是消费者DIY、汽车维修、工程建设、工业领域，需求景气。疫情使得线上销售快速增长，但是线下业务仍然是重点。工具行业整体供应链依赖中国，但是在美国对中国加征关税的背景下，东南亚具有低关税优势。 Demand is booming in the tools industry and the supply chain depends on China. Downstream consumption applications are mainly in consumer DIY, automobile maintenance, engineering construction and the industrial market. While Covid-19 has led to rapid growth in online sales, the offline business remains the main focus. The overall supply chain relies on China but Southeast Asia has a low tariff advantage in view of the US tariff hikes on China. 巨星科技有望获得行业增长、格局优化的红利。行业内的先发龙头，在面临业务的取舍时，手工具并非处在第一优先级，导致这些海外巨头手工具业务增长乏力。巨星科技每年投入大量研发费用，每年研发新品超过1000个，在上游具有分散的产能供给，自身拥有大量制造工厂，下游多渠道销售，同时线上销售高速增长。在未来，公司将继续推进自有品牌销售，使用自有资金进行并购，在份额持续提升的过程中，不定期享受并购带来的业务规模扩大红利。 Demand is booming in the tools industry and the supply chain depends on China. Downstream consumption applications are mainly in consumer DIY, automobile maintenance, engineering construction and the industrial market. While Covid-19 has led to rapid growth in online sales, the offline business remains the main focus. The overall supply chain relies on China but Southeast Asia has a low tariff advantage in view of the US tariff hikes on China. 巨星科技是国内手工具领域出海龙头，对应手工具赛道下游持续高景气，上游产能逐渐向中国集中。 公司ODM业务稳定增长，战略上持续推进自有品牌与海外线上业务，自有品牌占比不断提高，同时公司积极寻求并购机会，收购了如Arrow、prime-line、lista等知名品牌。未来公司有望继续享受中国及东南亚的制造成本优势，稳步提升自身产能，切入动力工具赛道，依靠对工具类目供应链、渠道、品牌、研发的理解，作为龙头持续获得市场份额。 Great Star reaps the benefits of industry growth and structure optimization. Whenever the first-movers in the industry have to make business trade-offs, hand tools are not their first priority. This has led to weak growth of the hand tools business of global giants. Great Star has invested heavily into R&D and develops more than 1,000 new products each year. Capacity supply in the upstream is decentralized with a large number of manufacturing plants and multiple sales channels downstream, while online sales are growing rapidly. In the future, we expect Great Star’s own-brand sales growth to continue and benefit from market share increase and business expansion as it uses its own funds to grow its business via M&A. 重点推荐/Recommendation 投资建议：综合预计公司2021-2023年营收104.60亿/125.04亿/137.44亿元，净利润13.96亿/17.96亿/20.33亿元。给予2022年25倍PE，对应目标价39.27元。 Valuation and risks：Great Star, the leader in the domestic hand tool market, benefits from the downstream boom in hand tools as upstream production capacity is gradually concentrated in China. Its ODM business has grown steadily, while it strategically promotes its own brands and overseas online sales, so that the proportion of its own brands continues to increase. Great Star is active in M&A and has acquired well-known brands such as Arrow, Prime-Line and Lista. We expect it to continue to benefit from manufacturing cost advantages in China and Southeast Asia, increase its own production capacity steadily, and enter the power tool market by building on its know-how of the tools supply chain, channels, brands and R&D, so as to gain market share. We expect revenue to arrive at RMB10.46bn/12.50bn/13.74bn in 2021/22/23E and net profit at RMB1.4bn/1.8bn/2.03bn. We assign a 25x PE in 2022E, which derives a target price of RMB39.27. We initiate coverage with a BUY call. 风险提示：汇率波动风险，并购不及预期风险，美国对华贸易政策改变风险，运力不足风险，原材料价格提升风险，疫情反复影响东南亚生产风险。 Risks include: risks of exchange rate fluctuations, less than expected risks of mergers and acquisitions, risks of changes in the US trade policy with China, risks of insufficient capacity, risks of rising raw material prices, and risks of the epidemic repeatedly affecting production in Southeast Asia.. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. 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