张小泉: 百年品牌,良钢精作,产品多元化&深耕销售网络驱动增长

（以下内容从天风证券《张小泉: 百年品牌,良钢精作,产品多元化&深耕销售网络驱动增长》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Zhang Xiaoquan (301055 CH) 张小泉：百年品牌，良钢精作，产品多元化&深耕销售网络驱动增长 Initiating coverage: centuries-old knife brand is a cut above the rest; continues to dominate consumer mindshare BUY (initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 百年品牌张小泉，整合后再次角逐行业龙头。 张小泉品牌始创于公元1628年，公司目前是一家集设计、研发、生产、销售和服务于一体的现代生活五金用品制造企业，主要经营刀剪类产品与其他家居生活用品，在刀剪行业内处于龙头地位。 Centuries-old brand sustains its edge in contemporary knife market Zhang Xiaoquan was founded in 1628 and is today a contemporary hardware manufacturer that integrates design, R&D, sales and services. It leads the contemporary knife and scissors industry, while also dealing with other household necessities. 张小泉在刀剪制造关键工艺上构建起自身的技术壁垒。 刀剪行业的主要技术有钢材炼制、热处理、磨削抛光、表面处理等。钢材炼制能决定材料的元素配比，热处理能决定材料的微观晶体结构，两者共同决定刀剪的最终硬度、韧性等性能。而磨削抛光决定了刀剪的最终外形，表面处理决定了刀剪的表面材料性能。这些工艺共同决定了刀剪的最终性能。其中，热处理最为重要，公司目前在生产流程中自己操作热处理与磨削抛光部分。 The company has erected competitive barriers with expertise in key knife and scissors manufacturing processes. The main technologies include steel refining, heat treatment, grinding and polishing, and surface treatment. Steel refining determines the element ratio of the material; heat treatment determines the micro-crystal structure; and together the two processes determine the hardness and toughness of the final products. Grinding and polishing determine the final shape of the knives and scissors; surface treatment determines the material properties; and together the processes determine the final performance of the products. Heat treatment is the most important process. The company does its own heat treatment, grinding and polishing in the manufacture process 刀剪行业格局分散，张小泉能从无品牌小厂商处抢夺存量份额。 刀剪行业内规模以上（2000w营收）的企业有200家左右，2017年国内规模以上刀剪企业营收之和约410亿人民币，但是其中大多数的刀剪企业都没有自己的品牌。未来，消费升级将带来刀剪产品多元化，消费者对产品品质服务需求提升，以及消费渠道的变迁，而顺应消费升级的趋势，张小泉作为一个知名品牌能够一定程度上获取本属于其他中小厂商的份额。 Fragmented industry: company set to gain share from small no-brand makers China has about 200 companies above a designated size (RMB20m p.a. revenue) in the knife and scissors industry; total revenue of this market was ~RMB41bn in 2017, but most of the companies are not branded. We expect future consumption upgrades to increase knife and scissors product diversity, which would increase consumer demand for quality products and services, along with channel changes. With the consumer upgrade trend, we believe Zhang Xiaoquan’s well-known brand would be able to acquire smaller product lines and increase its manufacturing market share to an extent. 品牌力是张小泉的最大壁垒，行业领先的产品性能作为保障。 毛主席曾指出：“张小泉的刀剪一万年也不要搞掉”。公司品牌形象深入人心，由于刀剪产品很难被消费者直接横向进行参数比较，同时使用周期、产品力验证周期较长，消费者较难作出准确的判断。知名品牌的存在降低了消费者的选择成本，同时也较好地阻隔了行业内的新进入者。 Zhang Xiaoquan’s edge is in brand power and product performance Mao once famously said: “Zhang Xiaoquan knives and scissors will prevail for 10,000 years.” The company’s brand is indeed a household name among Chinese people. It is difficult for consumers to accurately compare and judge different knife and scissor products within the horizontal market, especially as they have long use and durability cycles. Thus, the presence of well-known brands reduces selection cost for consumers while also hindering new entrants to the industry. 全渠道+高端化+多元化驱动公司增长。 销售渠道上，以线上销售与线下经销为主要增长点，全渠道发展。产能方面，外包大部分低端产能，自己掌握高毛利产品的制造，持续推出高端产品。同时，在自有产能不足的情况下，公司投资了阳江刀剪智能制造中心，预期该制造中心能为公司产品生产自动化信息化进一步作出贡献。公司还将进入厨电领域，持续获得更大增长。 Omni-channels, high-end products and expanding diversity drive growth In terms of sales channels, with online and offline sales and distribution as the main growth points, the company benefits from omni-channel growth. In terms of production capacity, most of its low-end products are outsourced, while the company has mastered the manufacture of high-margin products, and it continually launches high-end products. To cover any insufficiency in independent capacity, the company invested in the Yangjiang Knife Scissors Intelligent Manufacturing Center, which would contribute to production automation and informatization. The company’s entry into the kitchen appliance market should help drive more growth. 重点推荐/Recommendation 投资建议：公司是集设计、研发、生产、销售和服务于一体的刀剪老品牌企业。利用公司自身百年品牌的优势，不断探索高端化、全渠道、多元化的现代五金制品发展道路，拓展高增长的线上渠道，不断拓宽产品线，发挥产业集群优势与生产自动化、信息化优势，公司有望长期持续向好发展。 综合预计公司2021-2023净利润0.89亿、1.20亿、1.53亿，根据可比公司平均值，给予张小泉1.107倍PEG，根据我们预测的增速，给予公司2022年34.35X倍PE。 Valuation and risks：Zhang Xiaoquan is an old knife and scissors brand that has integrated design, R&D, production, sales and services. It maximizes its centuries-old household name with high-end products, omni-channels and modern hardware product diversity. Its high-growth online channels and broaden product matrix add advantages such as industry clusters and production automation and informatization. We expect strong growth in the long term. We expect net profit to arrive at RMB89m/120m/153m in 2021/22/23E. Relative to peers, we assign to Zhang Xiaoquan a 1.107x PEG. Based on our forecast growth rates, we assign a 34.35x PE in 2022E, and initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：品牌授权风险，新产品开发及市场推广风险，产品质量控制的风险，外协加工风险，股价波动风险。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。 Risks include: brand power risks; new product development and marketing risks; product quality control risks; outsourcing and processing risks; and share price volatility. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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