证券: 各流量平台上的“非持牌”财经自媒体正在被禁,金融机构的获客成本或将降低,利好正规军!影响深远!
(以下内容从天风证券《证券: 各流量平台上的“非持牌”财经自媒体正在被禁,金融机构的获客成本或将降低,利好正规军!影响深远!》研报附件原文摘录)
China Financial Services 各流量平台上的“非持牌”财经自媒体正在被禁,金融机构的获客成本或将降低,利好正规军!影响深远! Big V sweep: We assess the impact of China’s action to regulate online financial advice sites with large followings OUTPERFORM (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 据人民日报,8月27日至10月26日为专项整治的第一阶段。整改期间,国家网信办等多部门,集中清理一批违规发布的财经类信息,封禁关停一批充当“黑嘴”、敲诈勒索、无资质推荐股票等金融产品、社会反映强烈的“自媒体”账号。10月26日后,国家网信办将对第一阶段专项整治情况进行评估,视情开展下一阶段专项整治。 According to People‘s Daily, in the current “first phase of rectification” over 27 Aug to 26 Oct 2021, the National Cyberspace Administration and other departments have removed several financial information articles that violated regulations, and shut down and banned financial sites that it described as "black mouths", “extortionist” and which had recommended stocks without qualification, including “self-media” accounts. Post-26 Oct, the State Information Office Network will assess what action will be necessary for the next phase of rectification. The term “self-media” is used in China to describe independently operated social media accounts that produce original content but are not officially registered with the authorities, while “big V” refers to “verified” online accounts with large followings. 根据腾讯公布的违规自媒体账号示例显示,“招财大牛猫”“财富人生”账号被永久禁言;“创业思维学社”“商才天下”“证商谋略”等13个账号被永久封停;还有多个自媒体违规账号被处以“禁言60天”或“封停60天”处罚。 此前,不受金融监管的财经自媒体大V抢占了行业话语权和流量入口,从而抢夺了证券行业、基金销售行业的利润。我们判断,部分自身“获客能力偏弱”而通过互联网平台上的大V引流金融机构,可能会因财经大V的议价权增强而导致获客成本提升和业务的利润率下降。此次监管整治符合此前一贯严格管控“非持牌机构”、“所有金融活动必须依法全面纳入监管”的导向,我们认为,“大V被禁”后证券行业、基金行业的整体获客成本有望下降,或将利好传统金融机构的盈利能力。 According to Tencent, several of its sites considered to be illegal self-media have been banned permanently, including 招财大牛猫 (Lucky Big Bulls and Cats) and 财富人生 (A Wealthy Life), while 13 accounts have been permanently suspended, including 创业思维学社 (Start-Up Academy), 商才天下 (World of Business Skills) and 证商谋略 (Securities Strategy). Several other self-media accounts were dealt 60-day bans or 60-day suspensions. 9月车市预计:8月乘用车销量同比出现两位数负增长,其中既有芯片短缺带来的供给层面因素,也有去年疫情后需求集中释放导致销量基数较高的原因。9月开始,随着东南亚疫情逐步控制,芯片产能有望持续恢复,预计9月中下旬缺芯问题将得到改善,汽车行业有望进入加库阶段,厂家生产与批发量增速有望回升。同时,汽车传统消费旺季“金九银十”即将到来,消费需求进一步释放,有助于下半年汽车销量恢复增长。 Before this, big V self-media had not been subjected to financial supervision and utilized the helm of the industry‘s media platform via their social following to seize fund sales and industry profits. In our view, part of this was due to a failure by financial institutions (FIs) to gain customers on online platforms, perhaps due to financial big Vs’ increasing influence, which led to FIs’ rising user acquisition costs and declining funds’ profitability. The current regulatory crackdown is in line with previously issued guidelines on strictly controlling "unlicensed institutions" and that "all financial activities had to be fully supervised in accordance with the law". With the banning of some big Vs, we expect customer acquisition cost for the securities and funds industries to decline, which would benefit the profitability of traditional FIs. 投资建议/Investment summary 投资建议:考虑到东方财富和同花顺对财经博主吸引力增强,我们仍然看好东方财富、同花顺在线上流量方面绝对领先的规模基础和粘性优势;此外,我们判断,未来能够引入并利用好“受监管的大V”来打造线上投顾内容的机构将赢得未来!建议关注东方财富、同花顺、华泰证券、中金公司。 With Oriental Fortune and Flush becoming more attractive for financial bloggers, we remain optimistic about their scale leadership in terms of absolute numbers and higher user traffic stickiness advantage. In addition, we believe compliant big Vs could create online investment advice content in the future. We suggest that investors look at East Money Information (300059 CH, BUY), Hithink Royalflush Information Network (300033 CH, BUY),China International Capital Corporation (601995 CH, BUY) 风险提示:监管政策进展放缓、持牌机构流量端竞争加剧、流量成本攀升。 Risks include: relaxing regulatory policies; intensifying user traffic competition for licensed FIs; and rising user traffic cost. 以下为研报节选,查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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China Financial Services 各流量平台上的“非持牌”财经自媒体正在被禁,金融机构的获客成本或将降低,利好正规军!影响深远! Big V sweep: We assess the impact of China’s action to regulate online financial advice sites with large followings OUTPERFORM (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 据人民日报,8月27日至10月26日为专项整治的第一阶段。整改期间,国家网信办等多部门,集中清理一批违规发布的财经类信息,封禁关停一批充当“黑嘴”、敲诈勒索、无资质推荐股票等金融产品、社会反映强烈的“自媒体”账号。10月26日后,国家网信办将对第一阶段专项整治情况进行评估,视情开展下一阶段专项整治。 According to People‘s Daily, in the current “first phase of rectification” over 27 Aug to 26 Oct 2021, the National Cyberspace Administration and other departments have removed several financial information articles that violated regulations, and shut down and banned financial sites that it described as "black mouths", “extortionist” and which had recommended stocks without qualification, including “self-media” accounts. Post-26 Oct, the State Information Office Network will assess what action will be necessary for the next phase of rectification. The term “self-media” is used in China to describe independently operated social media accounts that produce original content but are not officially registered with the authorities, while “big V” refers to “verified” online accounts with large followings. 根据腾讯公布的违规自媒体账号示例显示,“招财大牛猫”“财富人生”账号被永久禁言;“创业思维学社”“商才天下”“证商谋略”等13个账号被永久封停;还有多个自媒体违规账号被处以“禁言60天”或“封停60天”处罚。 此前,不受金融监管的财经自媒体大V抢占了行业话语权和流量入口,从而抢夺了证券行业、基金销售行业的利润。我们判断,部分自身“获客能力偏弱”而通过互联网平台上的大V引流金融机构,可能会因财经大V的议价权增强而导致获客成本提升和业务的利润率下降。此次监管整治符合此前一贯严格管控“非持牌机构”、“所有金融活动必须依法全面纳入监管”的导向,我们认为,“大V被禁”后证券行业、基金行业的整体获客成本有望下降,或将利好传统金融机构的盈利能力。 According to Tencent, several of its sites considered to be illegal self-media have been banned permanently, including 招财大牛猫 (Lucky Big Bulls and Cats) and 财富人生 (A Wealthy Life), while 13 accounts have been permanently suspended, including 创业思维学社 (Start-Up Academy), 商才天下 (World of Business Skills) and 证商谋略 (Securities Strategy). Several other self-media accounts were dealt 60-day bans or 60-day suspensions. 9月车市预计:8月乘用车销量同比出现两位数负增长,其中既有芯片短缺带来的供给层面因素,也有去年疫情后需求集中释放导致销量基数较高的原因。9月开始,随着东南亚疫情逐步控制,芯片产能有望持续恢复,预计9月中下旬缺芯问题将得到改善,汽车行业有望进入加库阶段,厂家生产与批发量增速有望回升。同时,汽车传统消费旺季“金九银十”即将到来,消费需求进一步释放,有助于下半年汽车销量恢复增长。 Before this, big V self-media had not been subjected to financial supervision and utilized the helm of the industry‘s media platform via their social following to seize fund sales and industry profits. In our view, part of this was due to a failure by financial institutions (FIs) to gain customers on online platforms, perhaps due to financial big Vs’ increasing influence, which led to FIs’ rising user acquisition costs and declining funds’ profitability. The current regulatory crackdown is in line with previously issued guidelines on strictly controlling "unlicensed institutions" and that "all financial activities had to be fully supervised in accordance with the law". With the banning of some big Vs, we expect customer acquisition cost for the securities and funds industries to decline, which would benefit the profitability of traditional FIs. 投资建议/Investment summary 投资建议:考虑到东方财富和同花顺对财经博主吸引力增强,我们仍然看好东方财富、同花顺在线上流量方面绝对领先的规模基础和粘性优势;此外,我们判断,未来能够引入并利用好“受监管的大V”来打造线上投顾内容的机构将赢得未来!建议关注东方财富、同花顺、华泰证券、中金公司。 With Oriental Fortune and Flush becoming more attractive for financial bloggers, we remain optimistic about their scale leadership in terms of absolute numbers and higher user traffic stickiness advantage. In addition, we believe compliant big Vs could create online investment advice content in the future. We suggest that investors look at East Money Information (300059 CH, BUY), Hithink Royalflush Information Network (300033 CH, BUY),China International Capital Corporation (601995 CH, BUY) 风险提示:监管政策进展放缓、持牌机构流量端竞争加剧、流量成本攀升。 Risks include: relaxing regulatory policies; intensifying user traffic competition for licensed FIs; and rising user traffic cost. 以下为研报节选,查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 免责声明 分析师声明 本出版物署名分析师在此声明:本报告所表述的所有观点均准确地反映了分析师对目标证券和发行人的个人看法。分析师所得报酬的任何部分不曾与,不与,也将不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。分析师所得报酬的任何部分也不与天风证券股份有限公司(“天风证券”)或其下属公司开展的任何投资银行业务有联系。 一般声明 本出版物内出现的名词“天风集团”意指天风证券有限公司及其全球范围内的附属公司和分支公司,包括天风国际资产管理公司。本出版物及其内含的所有材料是由天风集团以及(如适用)在第一页或本出版物其他地方注明了的工作人员所属的一个或多个天风集团旗下公司准备的。 本出版物的所有内容均属机密仅供天风集团的客户使用,天风集团不因收件人收到本出版物而视其为天风集团的客户。本报告中的信息均来源自我们认为可靠的已公开数据,但天风集团对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告中的信息、意见等均仅供天风集团的客户参考,不构成所述证券买卖的出价或征价邀请或要约。该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本报告人员的具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求,在任何时候均不构成对任何人的个人推荐。天风集团的客户应当对本出版物中的信息和意见进行独立评估,并应同时考虑各自的投资目的、财务状况和特定需求,必要时就法律、商业、财务、税收等方面咨询专家的意见。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,天风集团及/或其关联人员均不承担任何法律责任。鉴于本报告可能开放于任何受众,本报告仅提供于有能力独立判断投资风险,能对自己投资决策有独立判断能力,并能根据自己对潜在投资、市场因素和其他投资考虑标准的独立判断来做出投资决策的收件人。 本出版物所载的意见、评估及预测仅为本出版物发布日的观点和判断。该等意见、评估及预测无需通知即可随时更改。过往的表现亦不应作为日后表现的预示和担保。在不同时期,天风集团可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本报告中不含任何对预测收益的一定可以实现的表达或保证。在分析当中有决定收益的相关假设。这些假设的改变可能对本报告预测的收益产生重大影响。 天风集团的销售人员、交易人员以及其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准、采用不同的分析方法而口头或书面发表与本出版物意见及建议不一致的市场评论和/或交易观点。天风集团没有将此意见及建议向报告所有接收者进行更新的义务。天风集团的资产管理部门、自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本出版物中的意见或建议不一致的投资决策。 特别声明 天风集团对于在研究业务当中可能产生的利益冲突有着完备的辨识和管理章程。天风集团的分析师以及其他参与本研究出版物撰写和宣传的员工有着独立于天风集团投资银行业务线的管理体系。投资银行、自营交易以及研究业务各自之间有着信息壁垒,确保任何机密以及/或者价格敏感信息被妥善处置。 本报告中所示分析师可能不时与我们的客户(包括天风集团销售员、交易员和其他专家)讨论各种交易策略,其中提及的交易策略可能会对本报告讨论的股票证券价格市场价格产生短期影响的助动因素或事件。这些可能与分析师对股票的预期价格产生抵触。但是任何此类的交易策略不同于也不会影响分析师对股票的基本评级。 在适用法律许可的情况下,天风集团可能会持有本报告中提及公司所发行的证券并进行交易,也可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。因此,投资者应当考虑到天风集团及/或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突,投资者请勿将本出版物视为投资或其他决定的唯一参考依据。 中国:本出版物在中华人民共和国(除开香港、澳门和台湾地区)由天风证券有限公司发布。天风证券股份有限公司根据中国证券监督管理委员会合法的经营业务许可运营, 当中含证券投资咨询业务。 香港:本出版物在香港由天风国际资产管理有限公司发布。天风资产管理有限公司是受香港证券及期货事务监察委员会监管并在其核准下开展证券及期货条例第571章内的受管4号牌业务(证券咨询服务),5号牌业务(期货咨询服务)以及9号牌业务(资产管理服务)。香港地区读者有任何关于本出版物的疑义可以直接咨询本公司香港销售代表。 其他司法管辖地区:研究出版物在其他司法管辖地区下的发布可能会受限于当地适用之法规,但在合规于特定司法管辖下的法律法规后会变得可行。本研究出版物不针对或旨在分发于任何属于或位于任何分布,出版,供应或使用此类研究出版物属违法之地区,州,国家或其他司法管辖区的公民或居民的任何个人或实体。 评级定义 投资评级 类别 说明 评级 体系 股票投资评级 在报告发布日期后的6个月内,相对同期该股票的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅 买入 预期股价相对收益20%以上 增持 预期股价相对收益10%到20% 中立 预期股价相对收益-10%到10% 持有 预期股价相对收益-10% 行业投资评级 在报告发布日期后的6个月内,相对同期该行业的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅 强于大市 预期行业指数涨幅5% 中性 预期行业指数涨幅 -5%到5% 弱于大市 预期行业指数涨幅 -5% 管辖区 用于定义评级的指数 中国大陆 沪深300指数 中国-香港 恒生指数 中国-澳门 恒生指数 美国 标准普尔500指数 本出版物版权归天风集团所有。任何未经天风集团书面允许的发布、复制、出版以及引用均属未授权行为。 Disclaimer Analyst Statement Each research analyst identified in this publicationcertifies that all of the views expressed in this publication by such analystaccurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subjectsecurities and issuers. 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