固定收益:理解央行的初心和苦心
（以下内容从天风证券《固定收益:理解央行的初心和苦心》研报附件原文摘录）
China Fixed Income Research 2021年二季度《货币政策执行报告》点评 2Q21 China Monetary Policy Report: discerning the central bank’s intentions and implementations _ 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 展望未来，货币保持宽松是共识。但是什么样的宽松？这是市场需要理解和合理预期的。 二季度货币政策执行报告体现了央行的初心和苦心。央行的天职是币值稳定，但是促进经济增长和就业又责无旁贷。有的时候这两者是平衡共存，但也有时这两者可能有对应的矛盾。虽然央行在关注经济动能的可持续性，降准支持企业降成本，但与此同时，仍需考虑合理引导社会预期，管控通胀压力。这就意味着在政策运用中，方向是经济决定的，但是央行会考虑一个度的问题。降准不直接增加基础货币，只是影响货币乘数，从而影响货币总体供应，逻辑上，从两个钱袋子角度考虑，避免财政赤字货币，意味着银行越配合，财政越积极，央行就会控制后续宽松的节奏和力度。反之则反是。 How far should easing go? China’s 2Q Monetary Policy Report reflects the People’s Bank of China’s (PBC) intention and efforts. Its duty is to ensure monetary stability. But it also has the responsibility to promote economic growth and stabilize employment. Sometimes these two aspects are consistent with each other, but at other times, contradictions could arise. The central bank is concerned about the sustainability of the economic momentum and has made RRR cuts to reduce cost for companies and to support them. At the same time, it needs to manage social expectations and control inflationary pressures. This means that in implementing policies, the economy determines the direction but the central bank would consider the extent. RRR cuts do not increase the base currency directly; rather, they affect the currency multiplier, thus affecting the overall supply of money. To avoid a fiscal deficit, the more banks cooperate, the more active the financial market would be, which would allow the central bank to control the pace and intensity of subsequent easing. And the opposite would be true as well. 首先在跨周期和做好今明两年宏观政策衔接角度，考虑疫情和外围，总体上流动性基本前提是保持稳定，甚至充裕。其次，合理充裕的同时如何做到不松不紧？央行表述是既不出现流动性紧张，也不过多投放流动性导致资金淤积。我们认为不松不紧具体表现为两点，一是价格，二是超储。从资金利率的加权价格变化观察，总体控制偏离政策利率的幅度，不高也不低，有一个区间或者下限；稳定投放控制金融机构的预防性动机之后，维持超储率在一个低位。展望下半年，市场重点关注地方债发力带来的供给和MLF大规模到期压力，按照上述表述，预计央行会有前瞻的安排进行流动性对冲。在对冲的同时，结合央行反复强调要关注价格而非数量，在目前政策利率维持稳定的情况下，预计具体体现就是资金利率仍有下限，下限持平于二季度。 A stance that is neither loose nor tight, but reasonable and moderate First, from the perspective of cross-cycle and macro policy convergence for the next two years, considering the pandemic and external environment, the basic premise of liquidity in general is to maintain stability or even abundance. Second, how to ensure sufficiency and abundance at the same time? The central bank has stated that there be neither liquidity tension nor liquidity caused by excessive investment. We believe the “neither loose nor tight” stance has a bearing on two points: price and excess deposit reserve ratio. Observing the weighted price changes of capital interest rates, overall control deviation from the policy interest rate is neither high nor low, but there is an interval or lower limit. After stabilizing the preventive motivation of controlling financial institutions, the excess reserve ratio is maintained at a low level. 盈利预测与估值/Valuation 疫情以来央行多次强调“更加重视就业目标”。具体而言，31个大城市城镇调查失业率是关键。如果本轮疫情导致就业压力加大达到甚至超出年初水平，与此同时几家抬的效果并未体现，预计降息可能性才会上升。 Two points to follow up: policy implementation and employment. Since the pandemic, the central bank has repeatedly stressed that “more attention will be paid to employment goals”. Key to this is a survey of unemployment rates in 31 big cities and towns. If the current pandemic situation increases employment pressure to exceed the level at the beginning of the year, and at the same time multiple policy effects are not reflected, we would expect a higher possibility of interest rate cuts. 风险提示：货币政策边际收紧，经济增长不确定性，海外风险 Risks include: marginal tightening of monetary policy; economic growth uncertainties; and overseas market risks. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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China Fixed Income Research 2021年二季度《货币政策执行报告》点评 2Q21 China Monetary Policy Report: discerning the central bank’s intentions and implementations _ 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 展望未来，货币保持宽松是共识。但是什么样的宽松？这是市场需要理解和合理预期的。 二季度货币政策执行报告体现了央行的初心和苦心。央行的天职是币值稳定，但是促进经济增长和就业又责无旁贷。有的时候这两者是平衡共存，但也有时这两者可能有对应的矛盾。虽然央行在关注经济动能的可持续性，降准支持企业降成本，但与此同时，仍需考虑合理引导社会预期，管控通胀压力。这就意味着在政策运用中，方向是经济决定的，但是央行会考虑一个度的问题。降准不直接增加基础货币，只是影响货币乘数，从而影响货币总体供应，逻辑上，从两个钱袋子角度考虑，避免财政赤字货币，意味着银行越配合，财政越积极，央行就会控制后续宽松的节奏和力度。反之则反是。 How far should easing go? China’s 2Q Monetary Policy Report reflects the People’s Bank of China’s (PBC) intention and efforts. Its duty is to ensure monetary stability. But it also has the responsibility to promote economic growth and stabilize employment. Sometimes these two aspects are consistent with each other, but at other times, contradictions could arise. The central bank is concerned about the sustainability of the economic momentum and has made RRR cuts to reduce cost for companies and to support them. At the same time, it needs to manage social expectations and control inflationary pressures. This means that in implementing policies, the economy determines the direction but the central bank would consider the extent. RRR cuts do not increase the base currency directly; rather, they affect the currency multiplier, thus affecting the overall supply of money. To avoid a fiscal deficit, the more banks cooperate, the more active the financial market would be, which would allow the central bank to control the pace and intensity of subsequent easing. And the opposite would be true as well. 首先在跨周期和做好今明两年宏观政策衔接角度，考虑疫情和外围，总体上流动性基本前提是保持稳定，甚至充裕。其次，合理充裕的同时如何做到不松不紧？央行表述是既不出现流动性紧张，也不过多投放流动性导致资金淤积。我们认为不松不紧具体表现为两点，一是价格，二是超储。从资金利率的加权价格变化观察，总体控制偏离政策利率的幅度，不高也不低，有一个区间或者下限；稳定投放控制金融机构的预防性动机之后，维持超储率在一个低位。展望下半年，市场重点关注地方债发力带来的供给和MLF大规模到期压力，按照上述表述，预计央行会有前瞻的安排进行流动性对冲。在对冲的同时，结合央行反复强调要关注价格而非数量，在目前政策利率维持稳定的情况下，预计具体体现就是资金利率仍有下限，下限持平于二季度。 A stance that is neither loose nor tight, but reasonable and moderate First, from the perspective of cross-cycle and macro policy convergence for the next two years, considering the pandemic and external environment, the basic premise of liquidity in general is to maintain stability or even abundance. Second, how to ensure sufficiency and abundance at the same time? The central bank has stated that there be neither liquidity tension nor liquidity caused by excessive investment. We believe the “neither loose nor tight” stance has a bearing on two points: price and excess deposit reserve ratio. Observing the weighted price changes of capital interest rates, overall control deviation from the policy interest rate is neither high nor low, but there is an interval or lower limit. After stabilizing the preventive motivation of controlling financial institutions, the excess reserve ratio is maintained at a low level. 盈利预测与估值/Valuation 疫情以来央行多次强调“更加重视就业目标”。具体而言，31个大城市城镇调查失业率是关键。如果本轮疫情导致就业压力加大达到甚至超出年初水平，与此同时几家抬的效果并未体现，预计降息可能性才会上升。 Two points to follow up: policy implementation and employment. Since the pandemic, the central bank has repeatedly stressed that “more attention will be paid to employment goals”. Key to this is a survey of unemployment rates in 31 big cities and towns. If the current pandemic situation increases employment pressure to exceed the level at the beginning of the year, and at the same time multiple policy effects are not reflected, we would expect a higher possibility of interest rate cuts. 风险提示：货币政策边际收紧，经济增长不确定性，海外风险 Risks include: marginal tightening of monetary policy; economic growth uncertainties; and overseas market risks. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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