皖新傳媒:24Q3點評:主業保持穩健,在手現金充裕
（以下内容从天风国际证券《皖新傳媒:24Q3點評:主業保持穩健,在手現金充裕》研报附件原文摘录）
Anhui Xinhua Media (601801 CH) 24Q3点评：主业保持稳健，在手现金充裕 24Q3E results review: core business was stable with sufficient cash in hand BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司於近日披露2024年第三季度报告。2024年第三季度，公司实现营业收入31.25亿元，同比减少16.6%；归母净利润2.33亿元，同比减少10.09%；所得税费用0.5亿元，有效税率为17%；扣非净利润1.63亿元，同比减少41.6%；截至三季度末，现金合计105.82亿元。 24Q3E textbooks business was stable; general books and AV dragged by macros Anhui Xinhua Media recently released unaudited results for 24Q3E: ·Revenue arrived at RMB3.13bn, down 16.6% yoy; ·Net profit was RMB233m, 10.09% lower yoy; Xinhua paid RMB50m in income taxes (effectively a tax rate of 17%) and ex-nonrecurring net profit came to RMB163m, down 41.6% yoy; ·Cash: RMB10.58bn as of end-24Q3. 教材图书基本保持稳定，一般图书受行业影响波动。2024年第三季度，公司教材图书及一般图书及音像制品分别实现销售码洋17.23/ 42.53亿元，同比下滑1.52%/7.59%。教材图书、一般图书及音像制品分别实现营业收入16.06/ 35.77亿元，同比下滑1.52%/7.35%。截至2024年6月底，公司在安徽、江苏、北京等地拥有804个实体门店，形成覆盖安徽全省、辐射周边的完整出版物分销服务及教育服务体系。我们认为，随著公司持续深耕市场，提高市场化教辅的发行能力和市占率，公司主营业务有望保持增长态势。 Business performance breakdown: ·Sales (based on recommended retail price): textbooks generated RMB1.72bn (down 1.52% yoy) in 24Q3E; while general books and audio-visual products generated RMB4.26bn (down 7.59% yoy). ·Revenue: textbooks generated RMB1.61bn (down 1.52% yoy); while general books and AV products generated RMB3.58bn (down 7.35% yoy). Physical store footprint: Xinhua‘s network of 804 physical stores (as of end-June 2024) centers on Anhui province and radiates out to areas such as Jiangsu and Beijing. Through it, the company provides comprehensive publishing, distribution and educational services. Xinhua is expanding market presence and enhancing distribution. Even while it expands its share of the market-oriented teaching aids business, we expect Xinhua‘s core business will likely maintain stable growth. 毛利率和费用率保持相对稳定。2024年第三季度，公司毛利率为23%，其中，教材图书、一般图书及音像制品毛利率分别为25.08%/ 39.44%，同比变动-0.03pct/ +0.87pct；公司销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率分别为8.4%/4.5%/0.2%。 Profitability: ·Gross margin was 23% in 24Q3E: textbooks posted 25.08% (narrowing 0.03ppt yoy), while general books and AV products together posted 39.44% (widening 0.87ppt yoy). ·Expense ratios: sales expenses had a ratio of 8.4%; administrative expenses 4.5%; and R&D expenses 0.2%. 教育服务产业链延伸拓宽，供应链服务体系持续做强。2024年上半年，公司持续创新重点主题出版物发行服务体系，上线数字化管理平台，重点主题出版物持续位居全国前列。公司作为安徽省唯一一家拥有教材发行资质的公司，围绕政策新导向和用户新需求，积极推进包括研学教育、劳动教育实践、课後延时服务等在内的素质教育整体解决方案，有望构建公司教育产业生态圈层，实现业务的协同发展。 Educational services: adding value chain traction and boosting supply chain Xinhua continued to drive tech innovations at the distribution service system of key thematic publications and it went online with a digital management platform, so that the key thematic publications continued to lead the Chinese market. As the only publisher qualified to produce textbooks in Anhui province, Xinhua seeks to fulfill both new user requirements in the market and new policy directives by providing a comprehensive range of quality educational solutions, including research education, the practice of manpower education and extended after-school services. Xinhua expects to build an educational industry ecosystem to drive coordinated business development. 加快人工智能教育产品布局，与智谱合作共同研发阅读类大模型。根据公司2024年半年报，公司与华为云计算技术有限公司联合实施“数字皖新”规划项目，推动各产业与数字技术深度融合。并与一流高校和企业合作，打造“美丽科学”数字教育融媒体平台，构建中小学科学教育整体解决方案；打造终身阅读伴侣学习机，与智谱华章合作开发皖新阅读大模型，研制皖新元小鳌机器人，推进人工智能在文化教育服务垂直领域的深度开发应用，拓展文化教育领域数字新赛道。 AI educational services buildout; tied up with Zhipu to develop a reading LLM Xinhua and Huawei Cloud Computing Technology jointly rolled out the Digital Anhui Xinhua planning project, which aims to drive deep integration of various industries with digital technologies, based on information from the company’s 24H1 results report. The initiatives include: ·Working with top-tier universities and corporations to build a Beauty of Science digital education integrated media platform; ·Constructing holistic solutions for science education in primary and secondary schools; ·Creating a lifelong reading companion learning device; ·Working with Zhipu Huazhang to develop the Anhui Xinhua Reading large language model (LLM) and the Anhui Xinhua YuanXiaoAo robot; ·Promoting the in-depth development and application of AI in vertical industries of cultural and educational services, while expanding new digital areas in culture and education. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：考虑到图书市场整体疲软公司主业短期承压。後续随著公司多元化布局智慧教育，供应链和文化服务数字等领域，公司智慧教育业务和遊戏业务未来有望受益於AIGC发展，增强公司盈利能力。我们调整公司2024-2026年收入为118/130/140亿元（前值分别为129.30/ 146.11/ 162.18亿元），同比增速分别为5%/ 10%/ 8%，归母净利润分别为7.7/9.3/10.6亿元 （前值分别为10.51/ 12.65/ 14.73亿元），维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Xinhua‘s core books business is under pressure from short-term macro factors. As the company diversifies into smart education, the supply chain business and digital cultural services, we believe its smart education and gaming businesses will benefit from AIGC development in the future, which would enhance its profitability. Meanwhile, we have lowered our revenue forecasts to RMB11.8bn/13bn/14bn for 2024/25/26E (previously RMB12.93bn/14.61bn/16.22bn), up 5%/10%/8%; and our net profit forecasts have moved to RMB770m/930m/1.06bn (previously RMB1.05bn/1.27bn/1.47bn). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：教辅市场整体需求下降，数字服务及智慧教育业务发展不及预期，测算主观性风险 Risks include: declining demand in the supplementary education services market; weaker-than-expected development in digital services and the smart education business; and risks related to the subjectivity of estimates. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
Anhui Xinhua Media (601801 CH) 24Q3点评：主业保持稳健，在手现金充裕 24Q3E results review: core business was stable with sufficient cash in hand BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：公司於近日披露2024年第三季度报告。2024年第三季度，公司实现营业收入31.25亿元，同比减少16.6%；归母净利润2.33亿元，同比减少10.09%；所得税费用0.5亿元，有效税率为17%；扣非净利润1.63亿元，同比减少41.6%；截至三季度末，现金合计105.82亿元。 24Q3E textbooks business was stable; general books and AV dragged by macros Anhui Xinhua Media recently released unaudited results for 24Q3E: ·Revenue arrived at RMB3.13bn, down 16.6% yoy; ·Net profit was RMB233m, 10.09% lower yoy; Xinhua paid RMB50m in income taxes (effectively a tax rate of 17%) and ex-nonrecurring net profit came to RMB163m, down 41.6% yoy; ·Cash: RMB10.58bn as of end-24Q3. 教材图书基本保持稳定，一般图书受行业影响波动。2024年第三季度，公司教材图书及一般图书及音像制品分别实现销售码洋17.23/ 42.53亿元，同比下滑1.52%/7.59%。教材图书、一般图书及音像制品分别实现营业收入16.06/ 35.77亿元，同比下滑1.52%/7.35%。截至2024年6月底，公司在安徽、江苏、北京等地拥有804个实体门店，形成覆盖安徽全省、辐射周边的完整出版物分销服务及教育服务体系。我们认为，随著公司持续深耕市场，提高市场化教辅的发行能力和市占率，公司主营业务有望保持增长态势。 Business performance breakdown: ·Sales (based on recommended retail price): textbooks generated RMB1.72bn (down 1.52% yoy) in 24Q3E; while general books and audio-visual products generated RMB4.26bn (down 7.59% yoy). ·Revenue: textbooks generated RMB1.61bn (down 1.52% yoy); while general books and AV products generated RMB3.58bn (down 7.35% yoy). Physical store footprint: Xinhua‘s network of 804 physical stores (as of end-June 2024) centers on Anhui province and radiates out to areas such as Jiangsu and Beijing. Through it, the company provides comprehensive publishing, distribution and educational services. Xinhua is expanding market presence and enhancing distribution. Even while it expands its share of the market-oriented teaching aids business, we expect Xinhua‘s core business will likely maintain stable growth. 毛利率和费用率保持相对稳定。2024年第三季度，公司毛利率为23%，其中，教材图书、一般图书及音像制品毛利率分别为25.08%/ 39.44%，同比变动-0.03pct/ +0.87pct；公司销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率分别为8.4%/4.5%/0.2%。 Profitability: ·Gross margin was 23% in 24Q3E: textbooks posted 25.08% (narrowing 0.03ppt yoy), while general books and AV products together posted 39.44% (widening 0.87ppt yoy). ·Expense ratios: sales expenses had a ratio of 8.4%; administrative expenses 4.5%; and R&D expenses 0.2%. 教育服务产业链延伸拓宽，供应链服务体系持续做强。2024年上半年，公司持续创新重点主题出版物发行服务体系，上线数字化管理平台，重点主题出版物持续位居全国前列。公司作为安徽省唯一一家拥有教材发行资质的公司，围绕政策新导向和用户新需求，积极推进包括研学教育、劳动教育实践、课後延时服务等在内的素质教育整体解决方案，有望构建公司教育产业生态圈层，实现业务的协同发展。 Educational services: adding value chain traction and boosting supply chain Xinhua continued to drive tech innovations at the distribution service system of key thematic publications and it went online with a digital management platform, so that the key thematic publications continued to lead the Chinese market. As the only publisher qualified to produce textbooks in Anhui province, Xinhua seeks to fulfill both new user requirements in the market and new policy directives by providing a comprehensive range of quality educational solutions, including research education, the practice of manpower education and extended after-school services. Xinhua expects to build an educational industry ecosystem to drive coordinated business development. 加快人工智能教育产品布局，与智谱合作共同研发阅读类大模型。根据公司2024年半年报，公司与华为云计算技术有限公司联合实施“数字皖新”规划项目，推动各产业与数字技术深度融合。并与一流高校和企业合作，打造“美丽科学”数字教育融媒体平台，构建中小学科学教育整体解决方案；打造终身阅读伴侣学习机，与智谱华章合作开发皖新阅读大模型，研制皖新元小鳌机器人，推进人工智能在文化教育服务垂直领域的深度开发应用，拓展文化教育领域数字新赛道。 AI educational services buildout; tied up with Zhipu to develop a reading LLM Xinhua and Huawei Cloud Computing Technology jointly rolled out the Digital Anhui Xinhua planning project, which aims to drive deep integration of various industries with digital technologies, based on information from the company’s 24H1 results report. The initiatives include: ·Working with top-tier universities and corporations to build a Beauty of Science digital education integrated media platform; ·Constructing holistic solutions for science education in primary and secondary schools; ·Creating a lifelong reading companion learning device; ·Working with Zhipu Huazhang to develop the Anhui Xinhua Reading large language model (LLM) and the Anhui Xinhua YuanXiaoAo robot; ·Promoting the in-depth development and application of AI in vertical industries of cultural and educational services, while expanding new digital areas in culture and education. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：考虑到图书市场整体疲软公司主业短期承压。後续随著公司多元化布局智慧教育，供应链和文化服务数字等领域，公司智慧教育业务和遊戏业务未来有望受益於AIGC发展，增强公司盈利能力。我们调整公司2024-2026年收入为118/130/140亿元（前值分别为129.30/ 146.11/ 162.18亿元），同比增速分别为5%/ 10%/ 8%，归母净利润分别为7.7/9.3/10.6亿元 （前值分别为10.51/ 12.65/ 14.73亿元），维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Xinhua‘s core books business is under pressure from short-term macro factors. As the company diversifies into smart education, the supply chain business and digital cultural services, we believe its smart education and gaming businesses will benefit from AIGC development in the future, which would enhance its profitability. Meanwhile, we have lowered our revenue forecasts to RMB11.8bn/13bn/14bn for 2024/25/26E (previously RMB12.93bn/14.61bn/16.22bn), up 5%/10%/8%; and our net profit forecasts have moved to RMB770m/930m/1.06bn (previously RMB1.05bn/1.27bn/1.47bn). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：教辅市场整体需求下降，数字服务及智慧教育业务发展不及预期，测算主观性风险 Risks include: declining demand in the supplementary education services market; weaker-than-expected development in digital services and the smart education business; and risks related to the subjectivity of estimates. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。
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