上海電影:三季度受大盤影響短期承壓,看好大IP開發增量逐步兌現

（以下内容从天风国际证券《上海電影:三季度受大盤影響短期承壓,看好大IP開發增量逐步兌現》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Shanghai Film (601595 CH) 三季度受大盘影响短期承压，看好大IP开发增量逐步兑现 24Q3E performance dragged by short-term macro pressures; we await pipeline payoffs further ahead ACCUMULATE (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：上海电影於2024年10月30日披露2024年第三季度报告。2024年三季度，公司实现营业收入1.79亿元，同比下滑30.52%%；归母净利润0.38亿元，扣非归母净利润0.01亿元。2024年前三季度，公司实现营业收入5.60亿元，同比下滑11.07%；归母净利润1.07亿元，同比下滑13.74%；扣非归母净利润0.44亿元，同比下滑33.76%。公司2024年中期利润分配预案拟每10股派0.96元（含税），合计派发现金红利4303万元，占2024年前三季度归母净利润的40.06%。 Q3E revenue fell 31%; 24M9E net profit down 14%; RMB0.96 interim dividend 24Q3E: Shanghai Film Company (SFC) released unaudited 24Q3E results on 30 Oct with revenue at RMB179m, down 30.52% yoy; net profit at RMB38m; and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB1m. 24Q1-3E: revenue amounted to RMB560m over the first 3 quarters, down 11.07% yoy; with net profit at RMB107m, down 13.74% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB44m, down 33.76% yoy. Interim dividend: the company’s interim profit distribution plan proposes a cash dividend of RMB0.96 (tax included) per 10 shares, amounting to a total payout of RMB43.03m, which is 40.06% of 24Q1-3 net profit. 电影主业受大盘影响短期承压，经济刺激有望改善公司Q4经营情况。根据灯塔专业版数据，截至2024年9月底，全国电影总票房347.71亿元，同比下降23.8%，较2021—2023年同期平均值（353.88亿元）减少1.7%，国内电影市场整体尚未完全恢复到疫情前的水平，或系优质影片供给不足。分板块来看，1）院线业务：2024年前三季度，公司联和院线累计实现票房26.67亿元，同比下滑28.4%；市占率为7.67%，同比下滑0.49pct。2）影院业务：2024年前三季度，公司直营影院累计实现票房3.66亿元，同比下滑29.6%，市占率为1.05%，同比下滑0.09pct。3）内容制作方面，《爱情神话》平行篇《好东西》定档11月22日，《拼桌》等项目有望於後续陆续上映。10月受益於政策利好陆续落地，电影市场数据呈边际改善迹象。根据灯塔专业版数据，10月全国电影总票房实现36.25亿元，同比降幅收窄至2.1%。其中，上海市场实现票房1.99亿元，同比提升15.7%，关注此轮经济刺激对公司四季度经营情况的改善。 Film market under macro pressures; policy aids could help Q4E operations Total box-office receipts across China amounted to RMB34.77bn in 24Q1-3, down 23.8% yoy and down 1.7% from the 3-year average of RMB35.39bn in Q1-3 during 2021-23, according to data from taopiaopiao.com. The Chinese film market has yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels, which we attribute to an insufficient supply of quality films. We look at key business segments: ·Film distribution: the company’s United Cinemas generated box-office receipts of RMB2.67bn over 24Q1-3, down 28.4% yoy. Its market share dipped 0.49ppt yoy to 7.67% in the period. ·Cinema chains: SFC’s directly-operated cinema business generated box-office takings of RMB366m in 24Q1-3, down 29.6% yoy, with its market share dipping 0.09ppt to 1.05%. ·Content productions: Her Story, a parallel production to the 2021 Myth of Love, is scheduled for release on 22 Nov 2024. Other projects in the pipeline for future releases include A Table for Two. Policy stimulus: benefiting from the rollout of favorable policies, film market data marginally improved in October. Data from taopiaopiao.com shows China’s box-office receipts at RMB3.63bn in October, as the yoy decline trend softened to 2.1%. Of this, the Shanghai market raked in box-office receipts of RMB199m, up 15.7% yoy. We would keep an eye on improvements in SFC’s operating data in Q4E given this round of economic stimulus. 大IP开发业务有序推进，有望助力经营业绩增长。2024年上半年，上影元实现营业收入0.64亿元，净利润为0.21亿元。上海国际电影节期间，上影元亮相首个自主开发的线下演艺产品《奇谭遊乐“元”上影IP奇趣派对》，同步官宣大电影《小妖怪的夏天：从前有座浪浪山》定档2025年暑期档，《中国奇谭》第二季预计2025年上线，“奇谭宇宙”进一步丰富。IP授权联名合作方面，1）商业授权：2024年上半年，公司与光明乳业、星巴克、必胜客、宝马、瑞幸、古茗、华莱士、中国邮政、京东、雀巢等知名品牌在食住行玩等领域展开IP授权联名合作。并於10月开启与摩比世界（德国最大玩具生产商旗下品牌）的深度合作，有望共同进行全球市场的开拓。2）遊戏合作：2024年上半年，公司与《光遇》《决战平安京》《永劫无间》《超能世界》《时光旅行社》《球球英雄》等多款多类型遊戏开展联动，总传播曝光量超过30亿。并与恺英网络股份有限公司达成战略合作後，双方将共同推出首个IP合作项目《黑猫警长》授权遊戏。 Major IPs undergoing development; gearing up to release incremental profits Film and TV pipeline: SFC’s subsidiary Shanghai Film Infinity (SFI) generated revenue of RMB64m and net profit of RMB21m in 24H1. At this year’s Shanghai International Film Festival in June, SFI unveiled a major offline market project as well as film releases in the pipeline: ·Folktales Park: Shanghai Film IP Fun Party: SFI unveils its first independently developed performance arts show for the offline market. ·Nobody: Lang Lang Ago: the new film continues the story of Piggy monster and Lang Lang Hill and is slated for release in the summer of 2025. ·Yao-Chinese Folktales 2: this extension to the well-received first anime series is set to be released in 2025. Commercial IP franchises: ·24H1: SFC launched a slew of IP licensing projects and co-branding collaborations in diverse markets such as food, accommodation, transportation and entertainment. Its partners included well-known brands Bright Dairy, Starbucks, Pizza Hut, BMW, Luckin Coffee, Gu Ming, Wallace, China Post, JD.com and Nestlé. ·October 2024: it established deep ties with Playmobil, Germany’s largest toy manufacturer, to jointly explore the global market. Gaming collaborations: SFC cinched collaborations with games across multiple genres in 24H1, including Sky: Children of the Light, Onmyoji Arena, Naraka: Bladepoint, Super World, Time Voyager and Orb Master, where total target audience exposure could exceed 3bn views. Under its strategic cooperation with Kingnet Network, both parties will co-launch their first project, an IP mobile game, Black Cat Sheriff, which will feature tower defense gameplay. 积极推进AI+IP 助推内容创制。2024年2 月，公司发布全新“iNEW”战略，积极推进IP与互动影遊、AI、MR产业等新兴科技娱乐领域领先企业的合作。年初至今先後与Rokid、生成式AI平台Tiamat、国内头部AI公司上海阶跃星辰智能科技有限公司等展开合作。 AI-driven IP content creation: the company launched its iNEW strategy in February 2024, which drives IP collaborations with leading companies in emerging technology and entertainment fields like interactive film and games, and the artificial intelligence and mixed reality markets. Collaborations it has formed this year include those with Rokid, generative AI platform Tiamat and leading Chinese AI player Shanghai Jieyue Star Intelligent Technology. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：考虑到受优质项目供应不足，电影大盘短期承压。後续随著大IP开发业务贡献业绩增量，以及AI对内容创作、影视制作等各项业务的赋能。我们调整公司2024-2026年营收为8.59/ 11.68/ 14.25亿元（前值分别为10.90/ 12.97/ 15.05亿元），同比增长8%/ 36%/ 22%，公司2024-2026年归母净利润为1.39/ 2.36/ 3.64亿元（前值分别为2.01/ 2.45/ 2.84亿元），维持“增持”评级。 Forecast and risks We expect the film market will be under short-term pressure in light of a shortage of quality projects. Subsequently, we expect incremental profit contributions from major IPs as they complete development, as well as AI-driven content creations, and pipeline film and TV productions. We have thus adjusted our forecasts accordingly to revenue of RMB859m/1.17bn/1.43bn in 2024/25/26E, up 8%/36%/22% (from RMB1.09bn/1.30bn/ 1.51bn previously), and net profit of RMB139m/236m/364m (previously RMB201m/ 245m/284m). We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating. 风险提示：IP商业化不及预期的风险；市场竞争加剧的风险；网络媒体竞争的风险；优质内容供给不足的风险 Risks include: weaker-than-expected IP monetization; intensifying competition; worsening online media competition; and an insufficient supply of quality content. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）