微軟公司: FY25Q1收入Capex略超預期,Q2指引略低於預期

（以下内容从天风国际证券《微軟公司: FY25Q1收入Capex略超預期,Q2指引略低於預期》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) FY25Q1收入Capex略超预期，Q2指引略低於预期 Higher-than-expected revenue and capex in FY25Q1E; FYQ2E guidance a tad more subdued than anticipated BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：MSFT公布FY2025Q1财报，其中收入爲656亿美元，同比+16.0%（超彭博一致预期1.7%）；毛利率爲69.4%，同比-1.8pcts（略超彭博一致预期0.5%）；调整後营业利润率爲46.7%，同比-0.9pcts（超彭博一致预期2.7%）；EPS爲3.30美元，同比+10.4%（超彭博一致预期6.2%）。 内容 FY25Q1E revenue beat expectations and rose 16% yoy; EPS up 10% yoy Microsoft released unaudited FY25Q1E (June to September 2024) results on 30 Oct: ·Revenue came to USD65.6bn, up 16.0% yoy (1.7% better than the Bloomberg consensus forecast (BBG)); ·Gross margin narrowed 1.8ppt yoy to 69.4% (0.5ppt better than BBG); ·Adjusted operating margin narrowed 0.9ppt yoy to 46.7% (2.7ppt above BBG); ·EPS rose 10.4% yoy to USD3.30 (6.2% better than BBG). 分业务看：生产力和业务流程业务收入283亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比+13%（超彭博一致预期16.8%）。更多个人计算业务收入132亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比+17%（略超彭博一致预期0.4%）。 智能云业务收入241亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比+21%（低於彭博一致预期7.1%），且同比增速相较於FY24Q4（20%）有所上升。其中Azure营收按固定汇率计算同比+34%，超越彭博一致预期的32%。本季度超预期的结果部分得益於当期收入确认的小幅收益。FY25Q1期间AI服务爲Azure营收创造了12%的增长，非AI对Azure增长的贡献环比-1pct。 We look at the revenue breakdown by business segment in FY25Q1E: ·Productivity and business processes (PBP): USD28.3bn revenue, up 13% yoy at constant currency (16.8% better than BBG). ·More Personal Computing (MPC): USD13.2bn revenue, up 17% yoy at constant currency (slightly above BBG by 0.4%). ·Smart cloud: USD24.1bn revenue, up 21% yoy at constant currency (7.1% lower than BBG), with the yoy growth rate higher than the 20% in FY24Q4: -Azure generated 34% yoy more revenue (constant currency), 32% better than BBG, partly due to a small gain in revenue recognition. -AI services contributed 12ppt of Azure revenue growth (flat qoq), while non-AI services contributed 1ppt less qoq to Azure growth. 资本支出超预期：微软本季度资本支出（包括融资租赁）达200亿美元。可比资本支出爲149亿美元，同比+50.5%，环比+7.6%（超越彭博一致预期2.6%）。公司指出，云和AI相关支出中约一半用於支持未来15年及以上的长期资产变现。剩余的云和AI支出主要用於服务器，包括CPU和GPU。 Heavier capex than expected: including finance leases, capex amounted to USD20bn in FYQ1E, with cash paid for property, plants and equipment at USD14.9bn, up 50.5% yoy and 7.6% qoq (and 2.6% more than BBG). The company noted that about half of its cloud and AI-related expenditure was long-term in nature and would support asset monetization for the next 15 years or more, with the rest spent primarily on servers, including CPUs and GPUs. Copilot推进持续加速：GitHub Copilot的Copilot Enterprise客户环比增长55%；Microsoft 365 Copilot日活用户环比翻倍。目前有近70%的财富500强企业使用Microsoft 365 Copilot。公司指出，Vodafone将向68,000名员工部署该产品，估计每人每周平均节省3小时；UBS将部署50,000个席位，并成爲金融服务业最大规模的部署。此外，目前已有近60万家组织使用Power Platform的AI功能，同比增长达4倍。Copilot Studio已有超过10万家组织使用，环比增长超过2倍，Dynamics 365 Copilot月活用户环比增长超过60%。公司指出，E5与 Copilot 365 在本季度继续贡献ARPU增长。 Copilot push: GitHub Copilot Enterprise customers grew 55% qoq in the quarter, while daily active users of Microsoft 365 Copilot doubled qoq. Currently, nearly 70% of Fortune 500 companies use M365 Copilot. Microsoft noted Vodafone will deploy the product to 68,000 employees after a trial showed it saved 3 hours per week per person on average. UBS will deploy 50,000 seats, the company‘s largest deal to date in the financial services industry. In addition, nearly 600,000 organizations currently use Power Platform’s AI capabilities, a four-fold increase yoy. Copilot Studio is now used by more than 100,000 organizations, a more than two-fold increase qoq, and Dynamics 365 Copilot‘s monthly active users increased more than 60% qoq. The company noted that E5 and M365 Copilot continued to contribute to ARPU growth in the quarter. 公司FY25Q2指引：1）预计生产力和业务流程业务收入在287亿美元到290亿美元，（按固定汇率计算）同比预计增长10%～11%，预计更多个人计算业务收入在138.5亿美元到142.5亿美元； 2）预计智能云业务收入在255.5亿美元到258.5亿美元，（按固定汇率计算）同比预计增长18%～20%，其中Azure按固定汇率计算的收入增长率将在31%～32%，增速放缓是由於第三方交付的供应推迟；预计AI服务的贡献将与Q1类似，并预计FY25H2期间Azure收入增速将由於供应增加而加速； 3）预计营收成本将以固定汇率增长11%至13%，即219亿至221亿美元之间；预计营业费用将以固定汇率增长约7%，即164亿至165亿美元之间，营业利润率预计将有所上升； 4）预计AI业务在Q2将达到100亿美元的年化营收； 5）监於云和AI的强劲需求，公司预计将继续增加资本支出。随着需求增长和资本积累，後续资本支出增速将会放缓，而收入增速仍会持续上升。 FY25Q2E guidance: PBP revenue up 10-11% yoy and smart cloud up 18-20% yoy Revenue projections: Microsoft expects the following metrics in FYQ2E: ·PBP would generate USD28.7bn-29bn revenue, up 10-11% yoy (constant currency), based on the company‘s expectations. ·MPC would bring in revenue of USD13.85bn-14.25bn. ·Smart cloud business would generate revenue of USD25.55bn-25.85bn, up 18-20% yoy (constant currency): -Azure: revenue growth would slow to 31-32% yoy (constant currency) in FYQ2E on delays in third-party deliveries; in FYH2E, the company expects revenue growth will pace faster on an increase in available capacity. -AI services: Microsoft anticipates this business will contribute similar revenue in FYQ2E as it did in FYQ1, and FYQ2E could bring full-year revenue to USD10bn. Profitability projections: ·COGS: Microsoft expects cost of goods sold will increase 11-13% (constant currency) to USD21.9bn-22.1bn in FYQ2E. ·Operating expenses would increase by about 7% (constant currency) to USD16.4bn-16.5bn. ·Operating margin would also expand. ·Capex: in light of strong demand for cloud and AI services, the company expects capex will keep increasing to keep pace with growing demand, until it has amassed sufficient capital assets, when capex growth would then shrink, while revenue growth would continue to increase. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：FY25Q1期间微软的AI对Azure贡献规模以及Copilot相关产品服务用户规模均有明显上升，且Azure供不应求的局面有望在FY25H2得到缓解，从而进一步提高智能云业务增速。基於微软AI相关业务的表现和云市场的强劲需求信号，我们维持原有预测，即FY25-27营收预测爲2851亿/3280亿/3837亿美元，归母净利润预测爲990亿/1114亿/1161亿美元，同时维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks With AI services‘ contribution to the Azure business and the scale of users of Copilot-related services expanding substantially in FY25Q1, we expect Azure‘s supply-demand imbalance will improve in FY25H2E, which would increase growth in the smart cloud business. In light of Microsoft’s AI-driven business performance and strong demand signals from the cloud market, we maintain our forecast with revenue at USD285.1bn/ 328bn/383.7bn and net profit at USD99bn/ 111.4bn/116.1bn in FY25/26/27E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：云业务供给扩展不及预期，AI发展不及预期，外汇不利影响等 Risks include: slower-than-expected expansion of cloud business supply; slower-than-expected AI development; and adverse FX impacts. 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