騰訊控股:預計盈利增長韌性相對明顯—騰訊控股3Q2024業績前瞻

（以下内容从天风国际证券《騰訊控股:預計盈利增長韌性相對明顯—騰訊控股3Q2024業績前瞻》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) 预计盈利增长韧性相对明显—腾讯控股3Q2024业绩前瞻 24Q3E preview: we expect Tencent’s business resilience would have bolstered earnings growth BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 整体业绩：预计收入同比+8%，Non-IFRS经营利润同比+17% 我们预计3Q2024腾讯收入同比+8%，环比+4%。我们预计，三季度公司遊戏收入同比增长延续加速趋势，广告收入增速略有回落但仍可维持韧性，金融科技及企业服务收入增速低位放缓。 我们预计3Q2024公司整体毛利同比+16%；整体毛利率为53.3%，同比提升3.9pct，环比基本持平。高毛利率的增量业务的占比有望持续提升。 我们预计3Q2024公司Non-IFRS经营利润约605亿元，同比增长17%。我们预计公司整体费用继续维持审慎管控，核心经营利润增速快於毛利增速。 我们预计3Q2024公司Non-IFRS归母净利润约574亿元，同比增长28%。我们预计3Q2024Non-IFRS归母净利润增长快於经营利润增长，主要系：1）预计3Q2024部分重点投资企业盈利同比增长，推动腾讯分占联合营公司损益继续同比提升。2）考虑到2Q2024公司业绩会上提到2024全年Non-IFRS所得税率预计在18%-20%（2023年为22%），我们预计3Q2024公司Non-IFRS所得税率将保持同比下滑。 尽管三季度居民消费需求、广告主投放需求或受到宏观环境一定影响，我们预计腾讯遊戏、广告业务的供给向好可为业务利润增长提供较强韧性，叠加相对严格的费用管控、联合营公司分占收益等因素，公司盈利有望继续保持较高增长。 Q3E preview: total revenue up 8% yoy and non-IFRS operating profit up 17% yoy Our preview of Tencent’s results is pegged to the following projections, which are premised on our expectation of its continuing resilience in 24Q3E: Revenue: up 8% yoy and 4% qoq in 24Q3E, with the following yoy segmental trends: ·Gaming revenue growth likely accelerated; ·Advertising revenue growth likely dipped; ·Fintech and enterprise services revenue growth would have slowed at a low level. Gross profit: up 16% yoy in 24Q3E, incorporating the following factors: ·Gross margin at 53.3%, up 3.9ppt yoy and flat qoq; ·We expect high-gross-margin business would have expanded as a proportion of the total in incremental growth terms. Non-IFRS operating profit up 17% yoy: we estimate this would have amounted to RMB60.5bn in 24Q3E. In view of Tencent’s typical prudence in managing expenses, we believe core operating profit growth would have outpaced gross profit growth. Non-IFRS net profit at RMB57.4bn, up 28% yoy: we expect the following factors would have spurred non-IFRS net profit growth to outperform operating profit growth in 24Q3: ·Profit yoy growth at some of Tencent’s key investment companies would have led the company’s share of JV profits and losses to expand yoy; ·Tencent is expecting a 18-20% non-IFRS income tax rate for 2024E (vs 22% in 2023), as mentioned at its 24Q2 results conference. We thus expect the non-IFRS income tax rate for 24Q3E would have continued to soften yoy. Our view: while macro uncertainties would have dragged consumption and advertiser demand in Q3E, we believe Tencent’s enhanced gaming supply and advertising businesses likely raised its resilience toward profit growth. Add to those tight cost control and JV profit sharing, and we reckon profits likely maintained high growth in the quarter. 网络遊戏：我们预计国内/海外遊戏收入同比增长继续加速 我们预计3Q2024公司网络遊戏收入同比+13%，其中国内市场收入同比+12%，海外市场收入同比+15%。展望後续，我们预计四季度腾讯遊戏业务收入增长将继续保持环比加速，持续关注《宝可梦大集结》、《星之破晓》、《逆战：未来》、《最终幻想14：水晶世界》、《航海王：壮志雄心》、《无畏契约手遊》等储备产品排期。 1）国内遊戏，5月21日上线的《地下城与勇士：起源》三季度IOS遊戏畅销榜排名在TOP2-4区间，流水曲线相对较好。考虑到遊戏收入递延确认规则，我们预计《地下城与勇士：起源》三季度收入增量贡献或将更为显著。 2）海外遊戏，考虑到三季度《荒野乱斗》在海外主要市场IOS畅销榜排名与二季度相比变化不大，我们预计三季度海外遊戏流水继续维持同比高增，收入同比增长加速趋势延续。 Online games: Chinese and international revenue growth likely accelerated yoy We expect online game revenue would have increased 13% yoy in 24Q3E. We expect the Chinese market would have generated 12% yoy growth, while the international market would have risen 15% yoy. We size up market performance: ·Chinese market: Dungeon & Fighter: Mobile (DnF: Mobile), which launched on 21 May, placed 2nd to 4th on iOS bestselling lists in Q3, trending favorably in turnover terms. In light of regulations on game revenue deferment, we expect incremental revenue contribution by DnF: Mobile for Q3E would be more substantial. ·International market: Brawl Stars’ placings in major foreign markets in Q3 in terms of iOS bestseller lists varied little from Q2, so we expect foreign game turnover maintained high yoy growth in Q3E and we expect it maintained an accelerated yoy revenue growth trend. Q4E outlook: we believe game revenue growth is likely growing faster qoq in the current Q4E. Our eyes are on the scheduled pipeline releases of these titles: Pokémon Unite, Honor of Kings: Break Dawn, Nizhan: Future, Final Fantasy XIV: Crystal World, One Piece: Project Fighter, and Valorant Mobile. 网络广告：我们预计收入同比+15%，视频号广告加库存或是对冲需求波动的有力措施 我们预计3Q2024广告收入同比+15%，主要由於视频号流量继续健康增长、广告扩容有序进行、AI技术平台提升投放效果。我们预计3Q2024广告业务毛利率提升至55.9%，主要由於高毛利率的视频号广告占比有望继续提升，部分被奥运会相关内容成本抵消。展望四季度，我们预计视频号广告加库存或将是对冲需求波动的有力措施。 Online ads: video accounts and inventory are ballast against demand fluctuations We expect advertising revenue increased 15% yoy in 24Q3E. We would attribute healthy growth in video account user traffic, smooth expansion of advertising business capacity and more efficient deliveries on the AI technology platform. Profitability: we expect advertising gross margin increased to 55.9% in 24Q3E, likely on a bigger proportion of high-gross-margin video account ads, which would have partially offset Olympic-related content costs. Outlook: looking ahead, we believe video account advertising plus inventory would provide sufficient ballast against demand fluctuations in the current Q4E. 金融科技及企业服务：我们预计收入同比+2%，毛利率提升趋势有望延续 我们预计3Q2024金融科技及企业服务收入同比+2%，增速较2Q2024继续回落，主要由於宏观消费弱增长，我们预计3Q2024金融科技服务收入增长短期继续降速。公司金融科技及企业服务毛利率由4Q2021的27.1%持续提升至2Q2024的47.6%，其中包括宏观需求回暖带动的经营杠杆恢复、云业务重组带动毛利率提升以及视频号带货技术服务费的快速发展。我们预计业务毛利率提升趋势有望在中期内延续。 FBS: Tencent likely maintained gross margin expansion trend in Q3E We expect fintech and business service (FBS) revenue would have increased 2% yoy in 24Q3E. However, growth would have declined vs 24Q2, mainly due to weak macro consumption growth. We expect FBS revenue growth would have narrowed on short-term factors in 24Q3E. Profitability: FBS gross margin increased from 27.1% in 21Q4 to 47.6% in 24Q2, due to factors including operating leverage improvement on a macro demand rebound. Gross margin widened on Tencent’s cloud business restructure, while technical service fees for video account sales grew rapidly. We expect the gross margin uptrend would have continued for the medium term. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议： 我们认为，公司遊戏业务产品周期推动短期遊戏收入增长加速，视频号广告加库存或可支撑中期广告收入增长韧性，金融科技及企业服务业务收入增长有望随宏观环境逐步修复，公司高毛利率的增量业务奠定了中期毛利率持续提升基础，叠加相对稳固的竞争格局下可维持谨慎的费用开支，盈利增长能力相对明显。我们维持2024/2025/2026年预测Non-IFRS归母净利润2178/2517/2786亿元不变，截止2024/10/25，公司股价对应2024/2025/2026年预测PE分别为17x/14x/13x，12个月彭博滚动前瞻PE低於5年来中位数1个标准差，处於17%的历史分位值。相对纳指12个月彭博前瞻PE低於5年来中位数1.2个标准差，处於14%历史分位值，估值处於相对低位。维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Executive summary: in the short term, we expect Tencent’s gaming product cycle will spur gaming revenue growth, while in the medium term, we see video account advertising and inventory boosting the company’s resilience to drive advertising revenue growth. We expect FBS revenue growth will recover gradually with an improving macro environment. Tencent’s incremental high-gross-margin business provides a foundation for stable growth in medium-term gross margins. In view of Tencent’s ability to manage expenditures prudently and the stable competitive landscape, we reckon its ability to grow profits is obvious. Valuation: we maintain our non-IFRS net profit forecast at RMB217.8bn/251.7bn/ 278.6bn in 2024/25/26E. Tencent’s current share price (as of 25 Oct 2024) corresponds to 17x/14x/13x PE in 2024/2025/2026E. Its 12-month Bloomberg rolling forward PE is 1 standard deviation below the 5-year median and within the 17th historical percentile. Relative to Nasdaq, its 12-month Bloomberg forward PE is 1.2 standard deviations below the past 5-year median and within the 14th historical percentile, which indicates Tencent’s valuation is at a relatively low level. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济增长不确定性；公司新遊戏上线存在不确定性；AI商业化节奏慢於预期。 Risks include: macroeconomic growth uncertainties; uncertainties around Tencent’s new game launches; and a slower-than-expected pace of AI monetization. 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