周大福:期待下半財年表現改善

（以下内容从天风国际证券《周大福:期待下半財年表現改善》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (1929 HK) 期待下半财年表现改善 FY25Q2E business update: CTF took measures to mitigate macro pressures; we expect improvements in FYH2E BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布初步运营及财务资料 周大福FY25Q2（24年7-9月）零售值同减21%，其中内地同减19%，占比88%；中国香港澳门及其他同减31%，占比12%。 同店销售增长方面，内地同减24%，中国香港澳门及其他同减31%；同店销量方面，内地同减33%，中国香港澳门及其他同减36%。 同店销售分产品看，黄金首饰及产品内地同减25%，中国香港澳门及其他同减36%；珠宝镶嵌、铂金及K金内地同减28%，中国香港澳门及其他同减17%。 公司预计FY25H1收入同减约18%至22%，而净利减少约42%至46% FY25Q2E retail value shrank 21% yoy; 31% drop in non-mainland markets Chow Tai Fook (CTF) released on 22 Oct its preliminary operational data for FY25Q2E (July-September 2024), indicating yoy changes: Retail value ·CTF’s overall retail value decreased 21% in FY25Q2E. ·Mainland: the market, which contributed 88% of total value, fell 19%. ·Hong Kong, Macau and the remaining markets (12% of the total) dropped 31%. Same-store sales ·SSSg: mainland of China’s same-store sales (SSS) growth fell 24%, while the non-mainland markets fell 31%. ·SSS volumes: mainland of China decreased 33% and non-mainland markets fell 36%. SSS by product type ·Gold jewelry and products: mainland of China SSS posted a 25% drop, while non-mainland markets declined 36%. ·Inlaid jewelry, platinum and K-gold: mainland of China SSS decreased 28% and the non-mainland markets fell 17%. Top and bottom lines: CTF believes revenue fell 18-22% yoy and net profit declined 42-46% in FY25H1E. FY25Q2宏观经济外部因素，尤其是黄金价格屡创新高，持续影响消费意欲，这属整体行业现象。FY25Q3中国内地同店销售跌幅收窄，而中国香港及中国澳门的同店销售跌幅则与FY25Q2相约；在刚过去十一黄金周，内地延续同店销售跌幅收窄的趋势。 Macro factors dragged sales: external factors like record-high gold prices continued to drag consumer sentiment in FY25Q2E, a phenomenon seen across the industry. The SSS decline softened in mainland of China, while Hong Kong and Macau were relatively flat vs FY25Q2E. During the Golden Week in October surrounding National Day, the decline trend continued to moderate in mainland of China. 黄金首饰及产品类别包括按重量及固定价格出售的黄金产品，该产品类别同店平均售价季内维持韧性；内地平均售价增长至6400港元（FY24Q2：5600港元），中国香港及中国澳门平均售价增长至9400港元（FY24Q2：8800港元）。 公司继续优化定价，提供不同定位的产品以满足各顾客群的喜好。在黄金首饰及产品类别中，毛利率较高的定价产品的销售占比由去年同期5.0%增长至季内12.8%，支持集团季内的毛利率保持韧性。 Gold jewelry and products: resilient ASPs; pricing matched market positioning The gold jewelry and products category comprises those sold by weight and those sold at fixed prices. Same-store average selling prices (ASPs) in this category were resilient in FY25Q2E and rose to HKD6,400 (FY24Q2: HKD5,600) in mainland of China and HKD9,400 (FY24Q2: HKD8,800) in Hong Kong and Macau. CTF optimized pricing to position the products alongside the preferences of various customer groups. In the gold jewelry and products category, the sales share of fixed-price products with higher gross margins increased to 12.8% in FY25Q2E (vs 5.0% yoy), which bolstered the company’s total gross margin in the quarter. 周大福珠宝加盟店对内地零售值贡献略为扩大至70.9%（FY24Q2：69.8%）；季内，电商对内地零售值贡献5.4%，销量占比13.1%。公司持续加强与顾客的线上互动，并通过灵活产品规划满足线上消费群的需求。 Franchises and ecommerce expanded market share in the mainland Franchised stores saw slight increases in their share of mainland retail sales value to 70.9% in FY25Q2E (vs 69.8% in FY24Q2). Ecommerce contributed 5.4% to mainland retail sales value while its sales volume accounted for 13.1%. CTF plans to keep strengthening online interactivity with its customers and to fulfill the requirements of online consumer groups through flexible product planning. 在分析上半年及去年同期实际经营表现时应剔除黄金借贷重估影响，这样经调整後FY25H1净利降幅将会收窄至约12%至16%；由於毛利率受益於上半年所出售黄金产品的平均售价较高以及产品优化及定价策略，加上周大福灵活执行各项措施增强业务韧性和竞争力，从而缓减上半年外部环境挑战所带来影响，令经调整後净利的跌幅缩少。 由於最近几个月国际金价大幅波动，公司於2024年9月30日按黄金市价重估未偿还的黄金借贷时产生非现金的未变现亏损，而去年同期的黄金借贷市价重估则录得收益，这是上半年净利下降的主要原因。 Gold price volatility: impacts on gold loan revaluations and net earnings Gold loans: sharp fluctuations in international gold prices in recent months have impacted gold loan revaluations. The company incurred non-cash unrealized losses when it revalued outstanding gold loans at market price on 30 Sep 2024; in contrast, it recorded a gain on revaluation of gold loans at market price at the same time last year. This was the main reason behind the net profit decline in FY25H1E. In our view, the impact of gold loan revaluations should be excluded when analyzing the actual operating performance for FY25H1E and the same period last year, which we estimate would narrow the adjusted net profit decline for FY25H1E to 12-16%. Higher ASPs: CTF’s gross margin benefited from higher ASPs for gold products sold in FY25H1E, as well as from product optimization and pricing strategies. Also, we feel that the company exercised flexibility when it took various measures to increase business resilience and competitiveness, which we believe mitigated the impact of macro market challenges in FY25H1E and moderated the decline in adjusted net profit. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入“评级 基於本次公司业绩预告，消费环境不确定性，金价高位抑制消费意愿，以及行业竞争激烈，我们调整盈利预测；我们预计FY25-27年营收分别为913亿港币、979亿港币、1060亿港币（原值分别为945亿港币、1039亿港币以及1145亿港币）; 归母利润分别58亿港币、61亿港币、68亿港币（原值为59.8亿港币、69.1亿港币、79.4亿港币）； EPS分别为0.58港币、0.61港币、0.68港币（原值分别为0.60港币、0.69港币、0.80港币）。 PE分别为13X、12X、11X。 Valuation and risks We lowered our profit forecasts in light of CTF’s performance guidance, macro-consumer market uncertainties, concerns over high gold prices tamping consumer willingness to buy and fierce competition. We now expect revenues of HKD91.3bn/97.9bn/106bn for FY25/26/27E (previously HKD94.5bn/103.9bn/114.5bn) and net profit of HKD5.8bn/ 6.1bn/6.8bn (previously HKD5.98bn/6.91bn/7.94bn), which would imply EPS of HKD0.58/0.61/0.68 (previously HKD0.60/0.69/0.80), corresponding to PEs of 13x/12x/11x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：品牌发展不及预期，核心高管流失，毛利率下滑等 Risks include: weaker-than-expected brand development; loss of core executives; and declining gross margin. 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