好未來:超預期,樂觀看待後續成長

（以下内容从天风国际证券《好未來:超預期,樂觀看待後續成長》研报附件原文摘录）
　　TAL Education Group (TAL US) 超预期，乐观看待後续成长 FY25Q2E results: surpassed expectations; we are bullish about subsequent growth BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司披露FY25Q2财报 公司本季（2024/6/1-8/31）净收入6.2亿美金同增50.4%，OP0.48亿美金同增50%；Non-GAAP OP0.65亿美金同增23%； 归母净利0.57亿美金同增52%，Non-GAAP归母净利0.74亿美金同增26%； FY25H1净收入10.3亿美金同增50.4%，OP0.3亿美金扭亏；Non-GAAP OP0.65亿美金同增220%； 归母净利0.69亿美金扭亏，Non-GAAP归母净利1亿美金同增165%。 FY25Q2E revenue rose 50.4% yoy to USD619.4m; FYH1E net profit turnaround TAL Education recently released unaudited results: FY25Q2E (June to August 2024): ·Revenue increased to USD619.4m, up 50.4% yoy. ·Operating income grew to USD47.6m, up 49.8% yoy. ·Non-GAAP operating income was USD64.5m, up 22.5% yoy. ·Net profit was USD57.4m, up 51.5% yoy. ·Non-GAAP net profit was USD74.3m, up 26.4% yoy; FY25H1E: ·Revenue rose to USD1.03bn, up 50.4% yoy. ·Operating income turned positive, coming in at USD30.3m. ·Non-GAAP operating income was USD65.4m, up 220.4% yoy. ·Net profit was USD68.8m, as TAL moved from loss to profit. ·Non-GAAP net profit was USD103.9m, an increase of 164.7% yoy. 在过去季度，人工智能学习设备业务的发展是收入增长主要驱动力之一。公司将通过这些人工智能驱动的智能学习设备，为用户提供更多获取优质学习内容的机会。 对於学习服务，公司将谨慎管理教学点网络，平衡运营效率和增长速度。学习服务业务的主要目标是为在线和线下的用户提供优质的学习体验。 Driving growth: proprietary learning devices helped boost revenue Popular xPads: TAL’s proprietary learning devices in the quarter provided a major revenue growth driver as the company continued efforts to develop this business. Through its smart learning devices powered by artificial intelligence (AI), which include its well-received xPad tablets, TAL provides users with more opportunities to access premium learning content. O2O quality teaching: to strengthen its learning services, the company plans to carefully manage its teaching networks while balancing operational efficiency and growth rates. Its main goal for this business is to provide users, both online and offline, with a quality learning experience. 好未来榮获2024年“数据要素×”大赛北京分赛一等奖 “数据要素×”大赛是中国首个聚焦数据要素开发应用的全国性大赛。好未来、暨南大学依托智慧教育国家新一代人工智能开放平台和粤港澳智慧教育联合重点实验室，联合研发的“大语言模型辅助的智能评价与多级精准导学关键技术及其应用”榮获智慧教育专题赛一等奖。 智能导学技术应用，融合大语言模型、人工智能、大数据、智能知识图谱等先进技术能力，深入挖掘和利用大语言模型及相关人工智能技术在智慧教育中的潜力。 一直以来教育领域存在“不可能三角”，即无法同时做到个性化、高质量和大规模。大语言模型兴起为这一难题带来解决方案。它能够深入理解和生成语言，提供更加自然交互体验。基於此，智能导学技术以大模型为基础，构建更加精细和丰富教育知识图谱，实现多层次、细粒度知识结构化，以及多层级深度认知诊断，最终实现为学生提供更精准和个性化学习内容。 Milestone for TAL: placed first in landmark Data Elements X competition Inaugural event: launched this year, this national-level competition is China’s first to focus on the development and application of data elements, falling in line with the Data Elements X 3-Year Action Plan (2024-26) issued by the National Data Administration (NDA) last year to help kick off multiplier effects that could help solve practical problems. Accolade: TAL and Jinan University landed first place in the special digital education category for their joint development of “Key Technologies and Applications of Intelligent Evaluation and Multi-level Precision Guidance Assisted by Large Language Models,” with the support of the National Open Innovation Platform for Next Generation Artificial Intelligence for Smart Education and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Smart Education Joint Key Laboratory. Role of LLMs: the application of smart guidance technology integrates advanced technical capabilities such as large language models (LLMs), AI, big data and intelligent knowledge graphs, while extensively exploring and utilizing the potential of LLMs and related AI technologies in smart education. The education arena has always presented a three-pronged conundrum – how to achieve personalization, high quality and large scale at the same time. The rise of LLMs helps provide a solution to this problem as their ability to grasp and generate language allows for a more natural interactive experience. Using LLMs, intelligent guidance technology can help build a more refined and rich educational knowledge map, allowing for multi-level and refined knowledge structuring, as well as multi-level deep cognitive diagnoses, thus providing students with accurate and personalized learning content. 目前，好未来已基於智能导学技术上线智慧答疑数学工具——九章随时问，通过启发引导的方式帮助学生解决数学难题，旨在培养学生的解题思维，提升数学学习能力。 当学生使用“九章随时问”解决学习中遇到的数学难题时，它不会直接给出答案，而是先分析题目考察的知识点和形式，再引导学生一步步思考如何解决问题，帮助他们在探索中获得灵感。这种方式不仅让学生更好地理解问题，还能培养他们独立解决问题的能力。 Ask Any Time: TAL’s MathGPT app tool Launched in June, TAL’s Ask Any Time is an LLM app based on intelligent learning guidance technology. Programmed to help students solve difficult math problems through a series of guided queries, it aims to cultivate their problem-solving abilities within a framework that is both convenient and efficient to use. When presented with a tough math problem, Ask Any Time does not provide a direct answer – instead, it analyzes the points being tested, and then guides students to think step by step about how to solve the problem, helping them to find inspiration as they explore the issues involved. This approach not only helps students better understand the question, but also develops their ability to solve the problem independently. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 上调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 基於FY24H1业绩表现及目前行业需求旺盛，公司盈利能力逐步显现；我们上调盈利预测，预计 FY25-27收入分别为23亿美元、34亿美元、51亿美元（原值为21/26/32亿美元）； Non-GAAP归母净利分别为1.8亿美元、2.5亿美元、3.7亿美元（原值为1.1/2.2/4.1亿美元）； EPS（按存托凭证数算）分别为0.3美元、0.4美元、0.6美元； PE分别为37X、26X、18X。 Valuation and risks Given the company’s performance in FY25H1E and current strong industry demand, TAL’s profitability is becoming more visible. We raise our forecasts to revenues of USD2.3bn/3.4bn/5.1bn for FY25/26/27E (previously USD2.1bn/2.6bn/3.2bn) and non-GAAP net income of USD180m/250m/370m (previously USD110m/220m/410m), which would imply EPS (based on depository receipts) of USD0.3/0.4/0.6 (corresponding to PE of 37/26/18x). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：行业竞争激烈，核心高管流失，收入不及预期。 Risks include: Intensifying competition; loss of key executives; and lower-than-expected revenue. 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