泡泡瑪特:24Q3點評:三季度營收同比大漲超120%,海外營收增4倍

（以下内容从天风国际证券《泡泡瑪特:24Q3點評:三季度營收同比大漲超120%,海外營收增4倍》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Pop Mart International (9992 HK) 24Q3点评：三季度营收同比大涨超120%，海外营收增4倍 24Q3E revenue rose more than 120% yoy and non-mainland revenue expanded fourfold BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：北京时间2024年10月22日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）发布2024年第三季度经营数据报告。公司2024年第三季度整体收入较去年同期同比增长120%-125%；分地区来看，2024年第三季度公司中国大陆地区收益同比增长55%-60%；中国港澳台及海外地区收益同比增长440%-445%。 中国大陆地区分渠道来看，线下零售店同比增长30%-35%，线下机器人商店同比增长20%-25%；泡泡玛特抽盒机同比增长55%-60%；电商平台及其他线上渠道同比增长135%-140%，其中，抖音旗舰店同比增长115%-120%，天猫旗舰店同比增长155%-160%；批发及其他渠道同比增长45%-50% Q3E update: O2O initiatives in mainland market; spate of new product launches Pop Mart released an unaudited 24Q3E business update on 22 Oct with revenue up 120-125% yoy. We view more granular perspectives below: Market regions: ·Mainland of China: revenue rose 55-60% yoy in 24Q3E; ·HK, Macau, Taiwan and foreign markets: collective revenue rose 440-445% yoy. Mainland channels: Pop Mart beefed up supply in Q3 and launched a series of premium product collections: 11/12/9 blind boxes and 6/8/4 Mega collectors‘ series in July/August/September. Here is the breakdown by revenue growth: ·Physical retail revenue grew 30-35% yoy in Q3E; with Robo Shops up 20-25% yoy. ·Virtual retail revenues: - Pop Draw mini-program: up 55-60% yoy; - Ecommerce platforms and others: up 135-140% yoy; with the Douyin flagship store up 115-120% yoy and the Tmall flagship store up 155-160% yoy. ·Wholesale and other channels: up 45-50% yoy. 点评：国内线上线下双渠道发力，产品上新节奏加速。2024年第三季度公司中国大陆地区收入同比增长55%-60%。从产品供给来看，第三季度优质产品持续上新，7月、8月、9月分别发售11/12/9款盲盒产品，6/8/4款MEGA珍藏系列。线下渠道稳步扩张，线上渠道受热门产品驱动整体提升。2024年第三季度，泡泡玛特线下零售店同比增长30%-35%，线下机器人商店同比增长20%-25%。从开店来看，8月共计新开14家门店（含5家快闪店），9月共计新开13家门店（含9家快闪店），线下门店稳步扩张。公司线上抽盒机同比增长55%-60%，天猫旗舰店同比增长155%-160%，抖音旗舰店同比增长115%-120%。8月天猫超品日The Monsters和CryBaby等系列热门产品返场，The Monsters搪胶脸盲盒迅速售罄。9月抖音商城超级品牌日期间，泡泡玛特品牌销量单日最高近1000万元。我们认为，线上渠道方面，随著第四季度进入大促及活动节点，双十一、圣诞节等，有望进一步提振中国大陆线上渠道收入。 Operations: physical retail network grew fast; online sales boosted by bestsellers Physical store network: the company continued to expand its physical footprint by opening new stores: ·August: it added 14 new stores (including 5 pop-ups) in the month; ·September: it added 13 new stores (9 of which were pop-ups). Virtual retail network: ·August: the company showcased best-selling collections such as The Monsters and CryBaby on Tmall‘s Super Brand Day, where The Monsters vinyl face blind box sold out quickly. ·September: Pop Mart’s brand sales approached RMB10m on a single day on Douyin mall‘s Super Brand Day. ·Q4E outlook: we anticipate the mainland‘s online market will drive revenue growth in view of the year-end high season featuring festivals like Double-11 and Christmas. 国际市场拓展加速，海外营收表现亮眼。2024年第三季度公司中国港澳台及海外地区收益同比增长440%-445%，主要系海外需求持续旺盛，叠加开店加速。根据我们统计（官方社媒帐号，请以公司口径为准），截至2024年9月底，港澳台及海外零售店较24年6月底新增22家（含快闪店）达114家零售店（含合营），24Q3季度新开门店数超过24H1半年新增水平。7月，泰国、荷兰、意大利、美国、印度尼西亚、法国、越南分别新增1家线下零售店，韩国新增2家门店。8月，中国香港、中国台湾、新加坡、马来西亚、英国分别新增 1家线下门店，美国新增3家门店。9月，中国澳门、韩国、澳大利亚、美国分别新增1家线下门店。我们认为Q4进入海外销售旺季，有望进一步推动海外业绩增长。同时，中国港澳台及海外地区线上渠道通过会员体系、节日活动策划，从粗放式走向精细化运营。 Non-mainland market expansion sped up to post stellar revenue growth The stellar leap in revenues from the Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign markets at 440-445% yoy was mainly due to strong demand and fast-paced store openings: Physical network: our estimates (which are based on the company’s social media sites and subject to its actual data release) show that it added 22 retail stores (including pop-up stores) in the non-mainland markets from end-June to end-September. This boosted the total retail store network to 114 (including JVs). The rate of store openings in 24Q3 outpaced 24H1: ·July: it added 1 offline store each in Thailand, the Netherlands, Italy, the US, Indonesia, France and Vietnam; and 2 in South Korea. ·August: it added 1 offline store each in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and the UK, and 3 in the US. ·September: it added 1 offline store in Macau, South Korea, Australia and the US. ·Q4 outlook: we believe Pop Mart will post growth in the current peak season for non-mainland sales. Online: for its non-mainland markets, Pop Mart moved from an extensive operations model to refined operations, driven by membership initiatives and holiday event planning. IP 变现渠道进一步拓宽，多元化布局消费市场。公司在深耕头部IP的基础上，不断拓宽IP变现渠道，增强IP互动性。9月19日，《梦想家园》手遊首次与线下产品销售联动，新增通过遊戏内获限量实体手办购买资格的玩法，进一步增强IP互动性。品类方面，公司持续创新品类，於5月先後拓展卡牌、积木等业务线，并於7月、8月分别推出相框系列及POP CUBE系列等盲盒新形态，增强潮玩产品的可玩性。管线方面，公司不断丰富产品线。截至10月中旬，公司旗下幸运商店福赏与GuGuGuGu、漫库、罗森、711门店合作实现线下快速铺货。同时，後续公司将推出全新品牌并开设饰品店，售卖戒指、手环等产品。我们长期看好公司IP的运营能力以及在产品种类、管线扩张的延续。 Expanded IP monetization channels and diversified consumer market buildout IP interactivity: To boost the development of its top-performing IPs, Pop Mart expanded their monetization channels and enhanced interactivity. For instance, the company established connectivity at its mobile game Dream Home to offline product sales for the first time on 19 Sept. It added a new gameplay to enable players with the qualification to purchase limited physical figures through the game, thus boosting IP interactivity. Product categories: the company is innovating and expanding its product formats, such as adding card games and building blocks in May. It also released new types of blind boxes like photo frames in July and Pop Cubes in August to enhance playability of its trendy products. Pipeline: Pop Mart‘s Lucky Store Fushang has cooperated with GuGuGuGu, Mancool, Lawson and 7-Eleven stores as of mid-October to speed up offline distribution. The company plans to launch new brands and open jewelry stores to sell rings and bracelets. We are bullish about its long-term product pipeline in view of its strong IP operations and product category expansion capabilities. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：短期重要节点活动催化叠加新品持续发力，公司国内海外业务高景气度延续，我们预测泡泡玛特2024-2025年收入为125/ 172亿元（前值为100.1/ 135.6亿元），同比增长98.4%/37.4%；2024-2025年调整後净利润（Non-IFRS）分别为31.4/44.0 亿元（前值为分别为23.1/ 31.5亿元），同比增长163%/40%。长期来看，IP变现渠道进一步拓宽有望贡献业绩增量，我们长期看好公司IP的运营能力和变现潜力，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We believe key short-term catalysts and development of new products will continue to maintain buoyancy in both the company’s mainland and non-mainland markets. We have upgraded our forecast and now expect Pop Mart will generate revenue of RMB12.5bn/17.2bn in 2024/25E (previously RMB10.01bn/13.56bn), up 98.4/37.4%; with non-IFRS adjusted net profit at RMB3.14bn/4.40bn (previously RMB2.31bn/3.15bn), up 163/40%. Over the long term, we expect IP monetization channel expansion will contribute incremental profits. We are bullish about the company’s IP operational capabilities and monetization potential for the long term and maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险；IP的表现不及预期；新业务表现不及预期 Risks include: intensifying competition; weaker-than-expected IP monetization; slower-than-expected new business expansion. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）