裕元集團:業績超預期,上調盈利預測

（以下内容从天风国际证券《裕元集團:業績超預期,上調盈利預測》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (0551 HK) 业绩超预期，上调盈利预测 24M9E profit alert: YY expects net profit rose at least 140%; we project a strong manufacturing OPM ahead BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布盈喜 公司预计24Q1-3净利同增140-145%至3.3-3.4亿美金；表现超预期，我们预计净利率或有较好增长。 公司认为净利增长系全球鞋履市场进一步常态化，品牌客户对裕元供应鞋履产品需求大幅提升，制造业务订单满载而逐季转强，带动制造毛利率稳健增长。 为支持本期间净利增长，裕元继续平衡需求与订单排程，灵活调度产能并落实有序加班计划，加之今年以来新增产能稳步提升，持续促进整体产能利用率及生产效率提高。 24M9E profit alert: better-than-expected net profit growth spike of 140% yoy Profit alert: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (YY) released a 24Q1-3E profit alert on 25 Oct that it expects net profit will increase 140-145% yoy to USD330-340m, above market expectations. We are expecting to see a growth spike in net margin in the period. The company attributes the strong net profit rise to normalization of the global footwear market and substantially higher demand from brand customers for YY’s footwear products, as well as strong orders at its manufacturing business, which quarter after quarter have driven a steady uptrend in manufacturing gross margin. To support net profit growth in the period, YY balanced demand levels and its order schedule through flexible allocations of production capacities and an overtime plan that ran smoothly. New production capacities have increased gradually since the beginning of 2024, which boosted the company’s capacity utilization and production efficiency. 裕元24Q3来收入成长显著提速 裕元24年1-9月制造营收分别同增13%、-12%、0%、+3%、+8%、+3%、+22%、+21%、+27%；月度数据走强释放积极的运营信号，我们预计订单有积极表现，同时乐观看待24Q4表现。 经过前几年疫情及品牌去库周期後，头部制鞋供应链逐步找回成长节奏；伴随营收成长，制造业规模效应有望逐步释放，看好制造业务OPM表现；有望带动公司整体收入业绩向上。 Manufacturing business: revenue growth upswing since July Healthy monthly growth: The manufacturing business has driven a healthy upswing in monthly revenue growth over 24M9: Jan +13%, Feb -12%, March 0%, April +3%, May +8%, June +3%, July +22%, Aug +21% and Sep +27% yoy; The upswing in monthly operational data sends a positive signal and we expect strong orders. Up ahead, we are bullish about 24Q4 results. OPM potential: post-pandemic and brand destocking cycles over the past few years, YY has gradually regained momentum in its lead positioning in the shoe supply chain. Along with revenue growth, we expect its manufacturing business will increasingly benefit from growing scale effects. We are bullish about YY’s potential manufacturing OPM, which we expect will fuel further total revenue growth. Adidas上调全年收入指引，裕元作为其鞋履供应链有望受益 我们认为Adidas反转势头显现，本轮提高指引强化方向，明确巨头运营周期，重拾成长节奏。阿迪达斯上调直接利好相关供应链订单预期；裕元作为阿迪鞋履供应链之一，有望积极受益，订单表现或优於短期品牌动销。 adidas raised full-year revenue guidance; YY to benefit as footwear supplier We believe adidas is heading toward an inflection point. Its recent guidance upgrade suggests YY’s longtime partner is headed toward returning growth on better visibility of its business cycle as it resumes its growth momentum. The global sportswear giant’s projected larger orders would directly boost supply chain orders. And as YY is in adidas’ footwear supply chain, it is set to benefit accordingly. We expect YY’s manufacturing order trend will outperform its brand sales in the short term. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 上调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 基於24Q1-3业绩表现，我们上调盈利预测；我们预计FY24-26年收入分别为86.5亿美元、96.45亿美元、109.35亿美元 归母净利润分别为4.3亿美元、4.8亿美元以及5.3亿美元（原值分别为3.8亿美元、4.2亿美元、4.6亿美元） EPS分别为0.27美元/股、0.3美元/股以及0.33美元/股（原值分别为0.24美元/股、0.26美元/股、0.29美元/股）； PE分别为7X、6X，6X。 Valuation and risks Factoring in the 24Q1-3E data, we raise our forecast to revenue of USD8.65bn/9.65bn/ 10.94bn in 2024/25/26E and net profit of USD430m/480m/530m (previously USD380m/420m/460m); implying EPS of USD0.27/0.30/0.33 (previously USD0.24/0.26/0.29), with our PE at 7x/6x/6x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：品牌发展不及预期，核心高管流失，毛利率下滑等 Risks include: worse-than-expected brand development; loss of core executives; and declining gross margins. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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