新東方-S:聚焦核心業務成長

（以下内容从天风国际证券《新東方-S:聚焦核心業務成長》研报附件原文摘录）
　　New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) 聚焦核心业务成长 We focus on core business growth BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司发布FY25Q1财报 本季（2024.6.1-2024.8.31）营收14.4亿美元，同增31%；剔除东方甄选自营产品及直播电商业务的营收同增34%； 此外本季出国考试准备和出国谘询营收分别同增19%及21%，针对成人及大学生的国内考试准备业务的营收同增30%； 教育新业务营收同增50%，其中非学科类辅导在近60个城市开展，本财季报名人次约48.4万；智能学习系统及设备亦在约60个城市中采用，本季活跃付费用户约为32.3万。凭藉丰富教育资源，公司将持续努力实现长期愿景，争取增长同时在稳健和可持续之间取得平衡，并且通过提升服务质量和营运效率来提高盈利能力。 公司经营利润为 2.9亿美元同增43%；Non-GAAP 经营利润为3亿美元同增23%；归母净利润2.5亿美元同增48%，Non-GAAP归母2.6亿美元同增40%。 截至FY25Q1，学校及学习中心总数1089家，与截至FY24的1025家相比，增加了64家；与截至FY24Q1止793家相比，增加了296家。截至2024年8月31日止，学校总数80家。 Unaudited FY25Q1E results: revenue up 31% yoy; new initiatives grew strongly FY25Q1E revenue for the June to August 2024 quarter came to USD1.44bn, up 31% yoy; if we were to exclude East Buy private-label products and livestream ecommerce, revenue would have increased 34% yoy. A breakdown shows: Entrance exam prep: ·Overseas prep: the exam preparation segment generated a 19% increase in revenue in the quarter, while overseas-study consultations grew 21%; ·Domestic prep: the exam prep business for adults and college students hoping to enter Chinese institutions showed 30% revenue growth. New education initiatives: this segment grew 50% yoy in the quarter: ·The company’s non-academic tuition covered nearly 60 cities in China and had about 484,000 enrollments; ·It had about 323,000 active paying users from 60 cities using its smart learning system and devices in the quarter; ·The company plans to leverage its deep educational resources to achieve growth for the long term by balancing stability and sustainability, and in this way, lift profitability by improving service quality and operational efficiency. Profitability: ·Operating profit was USD290m in FY25Q1E, up 43% yoy; with non-GAAP operating profit at USD300m, up 23% yoy; ·Net profit was USD250m, up 48% yoy, and non-GAAP net profit was USD260m, a yoy increase of 40%. Total school network: ·The company has 1,089 schools and learning centers as of FY25Q1E, 64 more than the 1,025 in FY24, and 296 more than the 793 in FY24Q1; ·It has 80 schools as of 31 Aug 2024. 公司不断努力改进OMO系统，并应用新技术来提升使用者对教育课程的体验。与此同时，专注『高性价比』和多渠道策略推动下，公司旗下东方甄选在短短两年内扩展自有品牌产品，在不同类别中建立488个SKU。企业横跨在线平台、直播，并透过与新东方品牌下学校及其他各方合作，策略性地扩展至线下渠道，并分享共同愿景，接触更广泛的消费者群以追求永续成长。 此外，令人鼓舞的是，文旅业务本财季大幅增长。公司开展高品质海外遊学团，以及针对K-12和大学生的国内研习营。此外还在中国30个特色省份及国际上筹办多项面向各年龄阶层（包括中老年人）顶级文旅项目。公司相信，从本财政年度开始，这项新业务将带来有意义收入贡献。 OMO business: online and offline convergence; livestreaming and collabs Best Buy private label: the company hopes to strengthen its online-merge-offline (OMO) model by applying new technologies that enhance user experience in its educational courses. Driven by its belief in a high cost-to-performance ratio and omnichannel strategies, the Best Buy arm expanded its private-label products within just 2 years and it has 488 SKUs in different categories. The business spans online platforms, livestreaming and has strategically expanded into offline channels through collaboration with New Oriental-branded schools and other parties. They share a common vision to widen their consumer base through sustainable growth. Cultural tourism: this business grew strongly in the June-to-August quarter. The company hosts quality study tours abroad and study camps in China for K-12 and college students. It also organizes a number of top-level cultural and tourism projects for all age groups (including middle-aged and elderly people) in 30 featured provinces in China and internationally. The company believes this new business will generate meaningful revenue starting this fiscal year. 教育核心业务OPM同增3.7PCT 为更好体现新东方核心教育业务，本季下述经营利润数据不包括东方甄选自营产品及直播电商业务的财务业绩。与上一季度的预期一致，公司於本财政季度同比提升核心教育业务的经营利润率。 公司本季GAAP经营利润率（OPM，不包括东方甄选自营产品及直播电商业务）为23.7%，同增370基点。 本季Non-GAAP OPM（不包括东方甄选自营产品及直播电商业务）为24.4%，同增220基点。 公司本季取得1.832亿美元净经营现金流； 本季末公司现金和现金等价物、定期存款及短期投资总额合共约49亿美元。 Core education business OPM grew 3.7ppt in FY25Q1; healthy cash position OPM growth trend: in line with the previous quarter, New Oriental expanded operating profit margin (OPM) yoy in its core education business in FYQ1E. To better reflect New Oriental’s core education business, Best Buy’s private-label products and livestreaming ecommerce business were not included in operating profit data. GAAP OPM (excluding Best Buy’s private-label products and livestream ecommerce) was 23.7% in the quarter, up 370bp yoy. Non-GAAP OPM (excluding Best Buy private-label products and livestream ecommerce) was 24.4%, up 220bp yoy. Net operating cash flow amounted to USD183.2m in the quarter. Cash and cash equivalents, time deposits and short-term investments reached a total of about USD4.9bn as of end-FYQ1E. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 我们预计FY25-27公司收入分别为52、64、75亿美元， FY25-27调後归母净利分别为5.6、7.7、10.6亿美元， FY25-27对应PE分别为18X、13X、9X。 Valuation and risks We maintain our forecasts for New Oriental’s revenue at USD5.2bn/6.4bn/7.5bn in FY25/26/27E; with our adjusted net profit at USD560m/770m/1.06bn; corresponding to PE of 18x/13x/9x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：核心高管流失，竞争加剧，消费降级 Risks include: loss of core executives; intensifying competition; and potential consumer downgrades. 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