特步國際:索康尼亮眼,主牌穩健

（以下内容从天风国际证券《特步國際:索康尼亮眼,主牌穩健》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK) 索康尼亮眼，主牌稳健 24Q3 operational update: Saucony kicked in a fine performance and main brand XTEP was stable BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24Q3营运状况良好 特步主品牌：零售销售增长（包括线上线下），同比增速位於中单位数；折扣约七五折；渠道库存周转，约四个月。 索康尼：零售销售增长（包括线上线下渠道），同比增长超50%。 Sound 24Q3 operating metrics: stable growth at XTEP main brand and Saucony Xtep International released its operational update for 24Q3 on 23 Oct, which shows sound growth in the quarter: Main brand XTEP: ·Retail sales grew at a mid-single-digit yoy in the quarter, comprising both online and offline channels; ·Retail discounting was at about 25%; ·Channel inventory turnover was about 4 months. Saucony: the company’s new brand posted a retail sales growth spike of over 50% yoy in the quarter, comprising both online and offline channels. 逆境中把握机遇，用不同品牌瞄准不同人群 在宏观经济不确定背景下，对价格敏感消费者会根据产品性价比和功能性来评估购买决策。他们对优质国内品牌的偏爱为特步增添不少市场优势。作为大众市场品牌，特步主品牌完美地迎合消费者对高性价比的专业跑步产品日益增长的需求。特步大众跑鞋的成功及受欢迎程度，从品牌位列中国马拉松赛事穿著率榜首中可见一斑，多年来助力公司不断扩大市场份额。 同时，高线城市成熟顾客群日益精明，不断追求可替代传统大型品牌的体育用品，推动新兴国际体育用品品牌在中国的崛起。索康尼抓紧日新月异的消费者需求，成功跻身主流，并成为中国增长最快的体育用品品牌之一。索康尼作为公司首个实现盈利的新品牌，在其专注於中国跑步和社会精英的战略性品牌定位的推动下，近年来展现强劲的增长势头。 Adverse-market opportunities; matching brands to targeted consumer groups Against a macroeconomic backdrop characterized by uncertainties, we reckon price-sensitive consumers are opting to buy value-for-money products with strong functionalities. We have observed these key trends: ·XTEP: the preference for quality Chinese brands drives Xtep’s main brand’s market advantages: -Its mass-market positioning feeds growing demand for cost-effective professional-grade running gear. -Its high wear rate at Chinese marathon events attests to the popularity of the brand’s mass-market running shoes, which has helped the company expand market share over the years. ·Saucony: mature consumer segments in higher-tier cities are increasingly savvy about sporting gear that substitute products made by traditional sports giants, a trend driving the growth of China’s emerging international sporting goods brands. Saucony’s ability to keep up with capricious customer requirements led it into the mainstream to become one of China’s fastest-growing sporting goods brands. As the first of Xtep’s new brands to turn profitable, Saucony’s strategic brand positioning among China’s running and social elites has fueled its strong growth momentum in recent years. 聚焦资源於跑步业务 公司建议战略性出售K·SWISS及帕拉丁，并聚焦资源於跑步业务，预计将有助於巩固在跑步领域的领导地位。通过发挥特步主品牌於跑步领域的绝对优势，叠加中国最大跑步生态圈的支持，以及特步主品牌与索康尼和迈乐之间的协同效应，公司将进一步提高市场份额，拓展潜在顾客群。因此，在持续扩张的中国跑步市场中，公司处於有利位置，能满足不同社会经济背景的顾客需求。 Retuning resources to focus on running; leveraging key strengths to expand share The company’s strategic plan to sell off the K-Swiss and Palladium brands to refocus its resources on the running market would help consolidate its running market leadership. The following dynamics are likely to keep expanding the company’s market share and customer base: ·The XTEP main brand’s running market advantages; ·China’s largest runners’ ecosystem; and ·The synergistic interplay of XTEP with Saucony and Merrell. The company’s broad and substantial coverage positions it well to fulfill requirements by customers from a variety of socioeconomic backgrounds and help expand its share of the running market in China. 优化供应链 位於安徽省蚌埠市的新工业园区已於23年5月投入运营。该园区包含约48,000平方米的鞋履生产设施，以及约25,000平方米的服装生产设施，有助於满足不断扩大的业务需求。与此同时，位於福建省晋江市的物流园区正全力建设中。该物流园区总规划建筑面积约240,000平方米，将作为公司中央仓库，有效地把成品直接运送到品牌零售店舖，大幅提升运营效率。 Expanding its supply chain to meet the company’s current and potential needs Bengbu base: the company’s new industrial park factory base in Bengbu city, Anhui province, commenced operations in May 2023 to meet the supply needs of its expanding business. It comprises a 48,000-sq-m footwear production facility and a 25,000-sq-m apparel production facility. Jinjiang base: on top of these, its new logistics park in Jinjiang city, Fujian province is undergoing construction. The logistics park has a planned area of 240,000 sq m and will serve as the company’s central warehouse to deliver finished products directly to brand retail stores, thereby greatly improving its operational efficiency. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 我们预计公司24-26年收入分别为160亿人民币、179亿人民币、198亿人民币； 净利分别为12.1亿人民币、14.1亿人民币、16.5亿人民币； 对应EPS分别为0.46人民币/股、0.53人民币/股、0.63人民币/股；对应PE分别为11/10/8X。 Valuation and risks We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB16bn/17.9bn/19.8bn in 2024/25/26E; with net profit at RMB1.21bn/1.41bn/1.65bn; implying EPS of RMB0.46/0.53/0.63, with our PE at 11x/10x/8x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：市场竞争加剧；新品市场接受度不及预期；终端消费不及预期风险等。 Risks include: intensifying competition; weaker-than-expected market acceptance of new products; and lower-than-expected end-market consumption. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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