李寧:靜待預期改善

（以下内容从天风国际证券《李寧:靜待預期改善》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Li Ning (2331 HK) 静待预期改善 24Q3 operational update: after the mixed performance, we anticipate growth ahead BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 2024年Q3李宁全平台零售流水（不包括李宁YOUNG）同减中单 就渠道而言，线下渠道（包括零售及批发）同减高单，其中零售（直接经营）渠道同减中单，批发（特许经销商）同减高单；电商同增中单。 截止24Q3李宁销售点数量（不包括李宁YOUNG）共计6281个，较上一季末净增加42个，本年迄今净增加41个。在净增加41个销点售中，零售净减少14个，批发净增加55个。李宁YOUNG销售点数量共1459个，较上一季末净增加21个，本年迄今净增加31个。 24Q3 business update: total ex-Young retail turnover fell at a mid-single-digit yoy Sell-through sales update for 24Q3: ·Total offline sales were down by a high-single digit yoy in 24Q3; a breakdown shows: -Retail (direct sales) fell by a mid-single digit yoy; -Wholesale (franchised dealers) fell by a high-single-digit yoy. ·Ecommerce sales rose by a mid-single-digit yoy. POS network ex-Young: Li Ning has 6,281 points-of-sales outlets as of 24Q3, a net increase of 42 qoq. In the year to date, it net added 41 POS, comprising: ·Retail: a net decrease of 14 outlets; ·Wholesale: a net increase of 55. Li-Ning Young POS: the company has 1,459 outlets as of Q3: it net added 21 qoq and net added 31 in the year to date. 成立合资公司布局海外市场 10月22日，李宁集团宣布，通过间接全资附属公司LN Co与Founder Co、HongShan Venture、HongShan Motivation成立合资公司，目的为在中国内地以外地区独家开发及经营李宁品牌业务（包括销售李宁品牌产品）。 资料显示，成立後的合资公司股本总额为2亿港元，其中LN Co、Founder Co、HongShan Venture及HongShan Motivation将分别以现金注资5800万港元、5200万港元、6272.8万港元及2727.2万港元，分别占合资公司股本总额的29%、26%、31.36%及13.64%。 同时，李宁集团和创始人李宁一并在合资公司中的持股达到55%，能有效地保障“李宁”品牌的声誉和保持对合资公司足够的影响力。引入红杉中国则可让合资公司分享红杉中国的跨境资源及跨境业务经验，有助於加快合资公司的发展步伐及效率。 International market: Li Ning sets up JV to build out its non-mainland business JV will manage global market: Li Ning announced on 22 Oct that its wholly-owned indirect subsidiary, LN Co, had set up a JV with Founder Co, HongShan Venture and HongShan Motivation, which has exclusive rights to develop and operate the Li Ning brand and sell the brand products outside the mainland Chinese market. Exclusive rights: according to the announcement, the JV’s total share capital post-establishment is HKD200m, comprising the following cash amounts invested by the four parties and their share proportions: LN Co invested HKD58m (29%); Founder Co HKD52m (26%); HongShan Venture HKD62.73m (31.36%); and HongShan Motivation HKD27.27m (13.64%). 55% stake: the Li Ning company and its eponymous founder Li Ning hold a combined 55% stake in the JV, which effectively ensures control of the JV and protects the Li Ning brand. The addition of HongShan augments the JV with its cross-border experience and resources, and could pace up the JV’s development and help raise business efficiencies. 供应链整合增效打造产品力基石 供应链自今年扩充产能以来，打通上下游链条，不仅满足订单增长的需求，并且有效提升整体效率，为产品质量提供坚实的保障。集团严格筛选供应商，结合信息数字化建设，公司实现对生产流程、产品质量的精细化管理。同时，通过整合材料、规模化采购和错峰生产等策略，有效控制成本支出，并提升生产效率与经济效益，推动了公司在产品力、成本控制及运营效率上的稳健进步。 Supply chain integration enhances product strengths and operating efficiencies After expanding supply chain production capacities this year, Li Ning’s upstream and downstream value chain business opened up. The company has not only been able to fulfill order increases, but it has also raised overall efficiency and firmed product quality. Strict screening of suppliers, combined with digitalization data, have enabled closer management of production processes and product quality. The integration of materials, large-scale procurements and staggered production are among the strategies and economical measures that have helped the company manage cost expenditures and increased production efficiency. These have help the products gain in brand profile. 零售渠道创新优化提升商品效率 物流管理平台效率持续提升，随著华东智慧物流中心高效运行，华中、华北及华南物流中心将於短期内投入使用，进一步加速货品流转速度。公司采用精细化物流计划管理，根据事业部特点定制策略，优化货品入仓与发货流程。同时，物流信息化平台赋能经销商，实时共享信息，提高门店配货效率，物流服务的质量进一步提升。 Retail channel innovations increased merchandise sales efficiencies Li Ning increased efforts to raise efficiencies in its logistics management platform. Its eastern China smart logistics center is functioning efficiently, and within the short term, the central, northern and southern China centers will be next. These efforts would boost the flow of merchandise. The company closely manages logistics planning, with customized strategies that adapt to the characteristics of each business unit, and it optimized merchandise warehousing and delivery processes. The logistics data platform empowers dealers to share data in real time, which improves store distribution efficiency and helps improve logistics service quality. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 基於24Q3零售及折扣表现，宏观消费环境面临一定不确定性等因素；我们调整盈利预测，我们预计公司24-26年收入分别为284亿人民币、298亿人民币、318亿人民币（原值为290亿人民币、313亿人民币、344亿人民币）；24-26年归母净利润分别为31亿人民币、35亿人民币以及40亿人民币（原值为32亿人民币，34亿人民币，38亿人民币）；24-26年EPS分别为1.2元人民币、1.4元人民币以及1.5元人民币，PE分别为12x、11X以及9X。 Valuation and risks We tweaked our financial forecast for Li Ning after taking into account its 24Q3 retail and discounting data, as well as potential macro consumption market uncertainties and other factors. We now project revenue will arrive at RMB28.4bn/29.8bn/31.8bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB29bn/31.3bn/34.4bn) and net profit at RMB3.1bn/3.5bn/4bn (previously RMB3.2bn/3.4bn/3.8bn). Our EPS moves to RMB1.20/1.40/1.50 with our PE at 12x/11x/ 9X. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：原材料及人工价格波动、环保要求稳步提升影响公司毛利；新品销量不及预期；渠道铺设及市场渗透不及预期；行业竞争格局激化等。 Risks include: gross profit factors such as fluctuating raw material prices, staff costs and stricter environmental protection requirements; worse-than-expected new product sales; weaker-than-expected channel buildout and market penetration; and intensifying competition. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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