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百融雲-W: 業績點評:2024H1階段性承壓,全年營收有望向上

作者:微信公众号【天风国际】/ 发布时间:2024-10-23 / 悟空智库整理
(以下内容从天风国际证券《百融雲-W: 業績點評:2024H1階段性承壓,全年營收有望向上》研报附件原文摘录)
  Bairong (6608 HK) 业绩点评:2024H1阶段性承压,全年营收有望向上 With the phasing out of H1 pressures, we expect full-year revenue will be on the upswing BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24H1收入增长稳健,净利润阶段性承压 2024H1,公司收入13.21亿元,同比+6%;毛利润为9.67亿元,同比+8%。收入与毛利润的增长主要得益於对人工智能(AI)技术的成功应用和商业化。2024H1,公司净利润为人民币1.43亿元,同比-31%,主要原因是上半年销售与营销开支的大幅上升,由去年同期的4.61亿元上升至5.07亿元,用於增加品牌及业务宣传以提升公司品牌知名度以及持续获取优质流量以提高转化效率。我们认为,公司净利润受销售与营销开支而下降是阶段性的,未来受益於公司在宣传与优质流量获取上的投入,下半年收入与净利润有望环比增长。 Steady revenue growth in 24H1E; we see net profit pressures as temporary Bairong’s unaudited 24H1E results show both revenue and gross profit yoy growth, with revenue up 6% to RMB1.32bn and gross profit up 8% to RMB967m, while net profit fell 31% yoy to RMB143m. The company attributes revenue and gross profit growth to the successful commercialization of artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The weak net profit was mainly due to substantially heavier sales and marketing expenses at RMB507m (vs RMB461m in 23H1), as the company stepped up brand and business promotions to raise brand awareness and increase quality-user traffic to drive better sales conversions. The temporary expenditure being publicity and promotional investments to acquire better-quality user traffic, we are expecting both revenue and net profit to grow in 24H2E. BaaS金融行业云数据亮眼,成为业绩增长驱动力 2024H1,BaaS金融行业云收入为5.89亿元,同比+20%,主要得益於促成的交易规模快速上升:今年上半年资产交易规模同比+23%至261.50亿元。2024H1,公司和客户的合作加深,联合开拓各种营销活动,促成资产交易规模的快速拓展;此外,随著更多自有用户贡献收入,结合公司在生成式AI上的获客优势,持续提升获客效率,并带来更高的ROI水平。我们认为,公司在核心业务BaaS金融行业云上的亮眼数据或将在未来带动公司业绩持续向上。 The financial industry segment of Bairong’s business-as-a-service (BaaS) generated RMB589m in cloud data revenue in 24H1E, up 20% yoy, mainly due to facilitated transactions as asset transactions scaled up 23% yoy to RMB26.15bn. Bairong deepened collaborations with customers and jointly developed various marketing activities to quickly raise the scale of asset transactions. And as more of its own users contributed revenue, combined with the Bairong’s edge in customer acquisition on generative AI, its customer acquisition efficiency improved, which brought higher ROIs. In light of the boom in financial industry cloud data, the company’s core BaaS driver, we believe profitability could continue to improve in the future. 技术持续更新,助力公司持续盈利 2024H1,公司成功将智能语音应用与大模型相结合,将完全基於大模型的交互时延压缩在500毫秒之内,低於同业1秒以上;同时,通过纯自研,公司的智能语音大模型进一步迭代出支持情感识别和情感语音输出的功能。对於未来的长期布局,公司的大模型进一步丰富模态支持,结合3D数字人的智能语音交互硬件已经开发出第一个商业化版本,并已与客户进行意向沟通,可广泛适配於银行大厅接待、零售百货导购等多元应用场景。我们认为,公司在技术上的持续更新有望使公司技术领先同业,从而获得稳健的收入,并在未来助力业绩增长。 Tech upgrades pushing Bairong toward industry leadership and profitability The company integrated large language model (LLM) capabilities into its AI VoiceGPT application in 24H1, while keeping LLM interaction latency within 500ms, faster than the industry average of over 1 second. Its proprietary smart voice LLM also iteratively supports emotion recognition and emotional voice output functionalities. Bairong’s long-term LLM buildout plans includes multimodal support and it has developed the first commercial version of its VoiceGPT with 3D avatars to interface with potential clients. This is adaptable to multiple application scenarios, including a bank’s reception and a department store’s shopping guide. We believe the company’s innovations will help advance its pacing toward industry tech leadership, which would bring stable revenues to fuel earnings growth in the future. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议 考虑到2024H1净利润同比下降,MaaS业务与BaaS保险行业云业务阶段性承压,因此我们将FY2024-FY2026公司总收入30.8/37.0/43.4亿元调整为30.0/34.3/40.5亿元,将归母净利润3.9/5.3/5.8亿元调整为3.19/3.81/4.38亿元,维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks Factoring in the net profit yoy decline in 24H1E and pressures in its model-as-a-service business and BaaS insurance cloud business, we lowered our revenue forecasts to RMB3.00bn/3.43bn/4.05bn (previously RMB3.08bn/3.70bn/4.34bn) in 2024/25/26E, with our net profit projections at RMB319m/381m/438m (previously RMB390/530/580m). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示:港股市场流动性不及预期、AI科技发展及应用落地不及预期、宏观经济复甦不及预期、公司的成本控制不及预期、估值体系差异风险、数据保密和法律相关风险、公司牌照无法续期风险 Risks include: weaker-than-expected Hong Kong stock market liquidity; slower-than-expected development and implementation of AI technology and applications; weaker-than-expected macroeconomic recovery; worse-than-expected cost management; valuation methodology variation risks; data security and legal risks; and non-renewal of the company’s license. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司(证监会中央编号:BAV573)及天风国际资产管理有限公司(证监会中央编号:ASF056)(合称“天风国际集团”)编制,所载资料可能以若干假设为基础,仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途,会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者,在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团,并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例,不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档,违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商,天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性,但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及/或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性,以及任何该等预测及/或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容,此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证,且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据,亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前,应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果,并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标,以及能否承担有关风险,必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意,证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌,过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家,传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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