京東集團-SW:24Q3業績前瞻:看好後續以舊換新政策驅動核心品類恢復

（以下内容从天风国际证券《京東集團-SW:24Q3業績前瞻:看好後續以舊換新政策驅動核心品類恢復》研报附件原文摘录）
　　JD.com (9618 HK) 24Q3业绩前瞻：看好後续以旧换新政策驱动核心品类恢复 24Q3E preview: we expect core categories would have started to recover with take-up of the trade-in policy BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 宏观经济稳步恢复叠加以旧换新补贴政策，24Q3预计收入同比微幅提升 从宏观环境来看，1-8月份消费品零售呈现稳步恢复态势，恢复至19年同期的119%。根据国家统计局数据，2024年1—8月份，社会消费品零售总额312,452亿元，同比增长3.4%，呈现稳步恢复态势；从线上消费来看，全国网上零售额96352亿元，同比增长8.9%，其中实物商品网上零售额同比增长8.1%，高於整体社零总额增速。分品类来看，家用电器和音像器材类/通讯器材类/日用品类分别累计实现行业零售额5940/ 4765/ 5167亿元，同比2.5% / 11.8% / 2.2%。根据国家统计局数据，2024年1-8月份，全国房地产开发投资69284亿元，同比下降10.2%（按可比口径计算）。整体来看行业正处於筑底修复阶段，近期从中央到地方刺激政策密集的出台。9月24日，央行在国新办新闻发布会上发布降准降息、调降存量房贷利率、统一并下调房贷最低首付比例等多项重磅政策，提振市场情绪。《关於加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》印发後，汽车、家电、电动自行车、家装厨卫等4个领域消费品以旧换新实施细则等配套举措已经全部印发实施。我们预计，京东集团24Q3收入同比上升4.7%至2595亿元，收入增长稳健提升，主要系1）整体来看，政策落地刺激消费情绪，终端消费整体有望企稳回升；2）分品类来看，京东3C家电等核心品类受以旧换新国补政策的拉动，日百品类在3P生态的繁榮下进入良性增长通道；我们认为，凭藉公司较强的供应链能力及内部效率优化，未来随著宏观经济向好，居民消费需求或逐步释放，驱动公司业绩向好。 Expecting slight uptick in Q3E revenue from macro recovery, trade-in policy Steady recovery in macroeconomy and consumption: ·Overall consumption: retail sales of consumer goods from January to August 2024 showed a steady recovery trend, reaching 119% of levels seen during the same period in 2019. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), total retail sales of consumer goods over this period reached RMB31,245.2bn, a yoy increase of 3.4%, indicating a steady uptrend. ·Online consumption: nationwide, online retail sales reached a total of RMB9,635.2bn, a yoy increase of 8.9%. Notably, those for physical goods increased by 8.1% yoy, outpacing the overall growth rate for total retail sales of consumer goods. By category, household appliances & audio-visual equipment/ communication equipment/ daily necessities achieved retail sales of RMB594.0bn/ 476.5bn/516.7bn, up 2.5/11.8/2.2% yoy. Policy stimulus and supporting measures: national real estate development investment came to RMB6,928.4bn from January to August 2024, a yoy decrease of 10.2% (calculated on a comparable basis), according to NBS. On the whole, we believe the consumer goods industry is bottoming out and in a repair phase. We note the recent intense rollout of stimulus policies, extending from central to local levels. ·Policy rollouts: On 24 September, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, the central bank announced a number of important policies, which we feel helped boost market sentiment. They include reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, lowering the interest rate for existing housing loans, and unifying and lowering the minimum down-payment ratio for housing loans. In July, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) jointly issued a document on “Several Measures on Supporting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods”. Since then, various measures have been issued and implemented to help support these policies, including rules governing the trade-in of consumer goods across a wide range of categories (automobiles, home appliances, electric bicycles, home decoration, kitchens and bathrooms). Revenue impact on JD.com: we expect the company’s revenue to have increased 4.7% yoy to RMB259.5bn in 24Q3E, and revenue growth to improve steadily, for two main reasons. 1) Overall, we believe the implementation of policies noted above should help stimulate consumer sentiment, and we expect overall terminal consumption to stabilize and rebound. 2) By category, we feel core categories such as JD.com’s 3C home appliances should gain from the national trade-in subsidy policy, while growth in the daily necessities categories has benefited from the company’s advancing third-party (3P) ecosystem. In our view, JD.com’s strong supply chain capabilities and optimization of internal efficiencies, as well as improvements in the macroeconomy that could gradually unleash consumption demand, should help drive the company’s performance. POP生态建设下产品结构优化，服务优势进一步强化 从公司业务来看，公司自营业务壁垒深厚，POP生态建设稳步推进，用户的消费体验提升有望与刺激消费需求形成良性发展的正循环。通过不断迭代“春晓计划”、深耕产业带提高入驻商家数量，截至24年一季度，京东第三方商家数量已突破百万；二季度，新增的商家数量环比一季度再度提升了超过40%，商家数量的提升进一步丰富了京东用户的选择。同时，公司持续加码低价举措，参与京东百亿补贴的商品数量同比增长超4倍，并针对服饰和美妆品类、产业带好物加大投入，京东9.9包邮频道商品数量较去年同比增长超2倍。我们认为随著中国消费市场的稳步复甦，平台的低价供给丰富度的提升或为後续下沉市场的攻坚及老用户的激活打下基础。分品类来看，带电品类受“以旧换新”补贴政策拉动，有望实现新一轮增长。7月24日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发了《关於加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》的通知，提出要从今年发行的特别国债中，拿出3000亿元用於支持设备更新、消费品以旧换新活动。618期间，京东联合20多个省市级政府给予消费者补贴加码，北京、河北、湖北、西安、深圳、广州、海南7个省市家电家居以旧换新成交额同比增长超100%。商超品类有望延续增长势头。京东11.11期间将通过“厂货百亿补贴”、10亿直播补贴、亿级CPS营销补贴、亿级广告金奖励等方式，持续为商家带来千亿新增流量。我们预计，24Q3公司non-GAAP归母净利润达81.7亿元， non-GAAP归母净利润率同比小幅下滑，主要系平台投放及补贴的影响。 Gaining from continuing POP buildout and trade-in subsidy policies POP buildout optimizes product structure, further strengthens service edge ·Growing consumer and merchant bases: On the business front, we feel the company’s self-operated arm enjoys deep barriers to entry, and it is steadily advancing its platform-open-plan (POP) ecosystem buildout while working to improve the consumption experience for users, which should create a positive cycle of beneficial development and stimulate consumer demand. By continuously iterating its Spring Dawn program and cultivating industrial belt partners, it has successfully locked in more merchants. As of 24Q1, the number of 3P merchants on JD had exceeded a million; in 24Q2, the number of new merchants increased more than 40% compared with Q1. We reckon this continued increase in merchant numbers has further enriched choices for JD users. ·Maintaining price advantage: The company continued to bolster its low-price measures, while the number of goods coming under its RMB10bn subsidy initiative increased more than 4x yoy. It also increased investments in apparel, beauty and industrial belt products. JD.com increased more than 2x yoy the number of its RMB9.90 items tagged to enjoy free shipping. Given a steady recovery in China’s consumer market, we believe that the company’s efforts to improve its platform’s low-price supply and rich product content could lay the foundation for subsequent progress in lower-tier markets and reactivation of old users. Trade-in policies and supporting measures likely aided fresh growth: ·National trade-in subsidies: by category, we expect electrical products would have had a fresh round of growth driven by the trade-in subsidy policy. On 24 July, the NRDC and MoF’s joint notice on “Several Measures to Support Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods” proposed plans to allocate RMB300bn raised through special treasury bonds issued this year to support equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in activities. ·Company initiatives: during the 618 shopping festival in June, JD.com joined hands with more than 20 provincial and municipal governments to provide consumers with additional subsidies. The volume for trade-in transactions for home appliances and home furnishing in seven provinces and cities (Beijing, Hebei, Hubei, Xi’an, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hainan) increased by more than 100% yoy. The supermarket category would have continued its growth momentum. During the upcoming Double-11 shopping festival in November, JD.com plans to bring RMB100bn in new traffic to merchants through subsidies worth RMB10bn for factory goods and RMB1bn for livestream ecommerce, as well as cost-per-sale (CPS) marketing subsidies and advertising reward programs worth hundreds of millions. 24Q3E profit: we expect the company’s non-GAAP net profit will come to RMB8.17bn for 24Q3E, and the non-GAAP net margin will decline slightly yoy, due mainly to the impact of platform launches and subsidies. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：短期公司POP商家生态建设稳步推进，核心品类的居民消费需求受政策拉动有望逐步释放。在整体需求疲软下，考虑到政策的滞後性，我们预计京东2024-2026年收入为11,321/ 12,333/ 13,183亿元（前值分别为11,510 /12,549 /13,183亿元），同比增长4.4%/ 8.9%/ 6.9%；调整2024-2026年归属股东净利润（Non-GAAP）分别为410/ 477/ 492亿元（前值分别为475 /506 /519亿元）。长期来看，1P和3P全盘统筹与公司推进的低价心智策略协同，我们看好公司供应链和物流核心能力的发展潜力，叠加下沉策略不断推进获客，AI大模型的应用有望持续降本增效。 Valuation and risks Over the short term, the company is steadily building out its POP merchant ecosystem. We also expect the trade-in subsidy policy to release pent-up consumer demand in core categories. Factoring in weak overall demand and possible policy delays, we expect JD.com’s revenue will come in at RMB1.13tr/1.23tr/1.32tr in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB1.15tr/1.25tr/1.32tr), up 4.4/8.9/6.9%, with adjusted non-GAAP net profit at RMB41.0bn/47.7bn/49.2bn (previously RMB47.5bn/50.6bn/51.9bn). For the long term, we expect JD will synergize competitive pricing for both 1P and 3P businesses. We see development potential for the company’s core capabilities in supply chains and logistics, lower-tier-city penetration strategies to boost customer acquisitions and expect the application of AI large language models will continue to reduce costs and raise efficiencies. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：政策监管风险；电商行业竞争加剧；海外上市监管政策风险；业绩预测或与实际值存在差异，请以公司公告为准。 Risks include: policy and regulatory risks; intensifying ecommerce competition; and regulatory risks for foreign-listed stocks. Note: our forecasts are only for reference and subject to the release of the company’s actual financial results. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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