周大福: 金價持續上漲或階段拖累消費熱情

（以下内容从天风国际证券《周大福: 金價持續上漲或階段拖累消費熱情》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (1929 HK) 金价持续上涨或阶段拖累消费热情 Rising gold prices could continue to dampen jewelry purchase sentiment BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 金价表现持续强势部分影响金饰消费 SGE黄金9999在2024年7月以来上涨约7%，且目前仍处於上涨通道表现强势；同时，2024年8月社会消费品零售总额同增2.1%，其中金银珠宝同减12.0%。我们认为主要系金价过快上涨部分抑制终端消费能力，观望情绪加重。 Macro view: strong gold prices partially dampening gold jewelry consumption Market metrics: the price of 9999 gold (AU9999) has climbed about 7% on the Shanghai Gold Exchange since July 2024 and it is still rising strongly. Meanwhile, retail sales of total consumer goods increased 2.1% yoy in August 2024, but those of gold, silver and jewelry fell 12.0% yoy. We believe the rapid rise in gold prices partially dampened end-market consumption capacity, even while consumers take a wait-and-see approach. 消费有待恢复，刚需成交为主 据“中国黄金珠宝”公众号，相关调研显示，尽管多数首饰品牌会在金饰挂牌价基础上给消费者一定的优惠，但在高金价背景下优惠力度有限，消费者观望情绪浓厚，婚庆刚需成交占主导。 Rigid demand drivers: surveys conducted by the China Gold Jewelry official account reveal that although most jewelry brands have given purchase discounts on listed prices of gold jewelry, the high gold prices placed limits on the discounts. Consumers have taken a wait-and-see approach and transactions have been dominated by rigid demand scenarios like weddings. 周大福FY25Q1销售表现较弱 由於宏观环境持续影响消费，中国内地以及香港及澳门的同店销售均有所下跌。加上黄金价格於高位徘徊，使得季内（截至2024年6月30日的3个月）黄金首饰需求受到影响，这属整体行业的现象。季内，内地直营店及加盟店的同店销售分别同比减少26.4%及19.1%，香港及澳门同店销售同减30.8%。香港的同店销售减少27.4%，而澳门同店销售减少41.3%。 周大福致力落实五大策略方针：品牌转型、优化产品、加速数字化转型、提升营运效率及强化人才培育，以提升长期竞争力。公司专注於提高盈利质量、股本及资本回报，将继续采取审慎的资本管理，为所有持份者持续创造价值。 CTF saw weak FY25Q1 sales across market segments and in the general industry Shrinking SSS: for Chow Tai Fook (CTF), same-store sales (SSS) in mainland of China, Hong Kong and Macau have been declining as macro factors have affected consumption. The price of gold has hovered at high levels and this affected gold jewelry demand in FY25Q1 (fiscal quarter ended June 2024), a phenomenon that was seen throughout the industry. CTF’s directly-operated and franchised stores in the mainland saw SSS shrink 26.4% and 19.1% yoy respectively, while Hong Kong and Macau SSS fell 30.8% yoy collectively, while Hong Kong fell 27.4% and Macau fell 41.3%. Strategic focus: CTF continues to drive its business along five strategic directions: brand transformation, product optimization, accelerating digitalization, and upgrading operational efficiency and talent development to enhance the company’s long-term competitiveness. It is focusing on boosting earnings quality, equity and return on capital, and wants to continue ensuring prudent capital management to create value for all of its stakeholders. 授出购股权激励骨干 公司根据股份奖励计划向董事及高管授出合543.86万份奖励，占总股本的0.05%；每份奖励代表有条件权利收取一股奖励股份，惟须达成授出奖励的某些条款及条件。 授出奖励旨在表彰及奖励承授人对周大福增长及发展作出的贡献，并激励及鼓励员工进一步为公司增长及扩展作出贡献。 Plan for 5.44m stock options aims to motivate key personnel CTF rolled out a stock incentive plan to grant 5.44m share options to directors and senior executives, equivalent to 0.05% of its total share capital. Each conditional share option entitles the recipient to one share, subject to the fulfillment of certain terms and conditions. The purpose of granting options is to recognize and reward the recipient’s contribution to the company’s growth and development, while motivating and encouraging the employees to keep contributing to its future expansion. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 由於金价表现强势影响金饰消费，同时一口价占比提升优化毛利率；我们调整盈利预测，我们预计FY25-27年营收分别为945亿港币、1039亿港币以及1145亿港币（原值为1136亿港币、1214亿港币、1303亿港币） 归母利润分别为59.8亿港币、69.1亿港币、79.4亿港币（前值分别为69亿港币、76亿港币、85亿港币）； EPS分别为0.60港币、0.69港币、0.80港币。 Executive summary and risks We factor in the dampening effect of strong gold prices on gold jewelry consumption and gross margin optimization with a rising proportion of fixed-price products in building our forecast for Chow Tai Fook. Hence, we lower our revenue forecast to HKD94.5bn/ 103.9bn/114.5bn for FY25/26/27E (previously HKD113.6bn/121.4bn/130.3bn); while our net profit forecast moves to HKD5.98bn/6.91bn/7.94bn (previously HKD6.9bn/7.6bn/ 8.5bn), which implies HKD0.60/0.69/0.80 EPS. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：金价持续上涨，核心高管流失等 Risks include: persistent rise in gold prices; and loss of key executives. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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