微軟公司: 業務重組的核心邏輯:Azure+AI增速更高,或準備近900億美元級別的Capex+租約投入

（以下内容从天风国际证券《微軟公司: 業務重組的核心邏輯:Azure+AI增速更高,或準備近900億美元級別的Capex+租約投入》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) 业务重组的核心逻辑：Azure+AI增速更高，或准备近900亿美元级别的Capex+租约投入 FY25E revenue restructure: higher Azure and AI growth; anticipating rollouts from USD90bn in capex and leases BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：微软宣布调整全年各部门收入口径。 将微软365的商业组件整合到PBP部门，该部门现在包括Office 365商业版、企业移动+安全（EMS）、Power BI每用户订阅以及Windows商业版云收入。 我们关注到最爲关键的Azure的最新增长率，从上一季度的同比增长30%上升至35%，其中AI贡献了11%，而之前爲8%。 Our FY25E takeaways from Microsoft’s revamp of its revenue structure Restructure: Microsoft’s updated revenue guidance in late August incorporated a realignment that clusters the commercial components of the Microsoft 365 software and services suite under the Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) division. PBP revenue now stems from Office 365 Business, Enterprise Mobility + Security (EMS), Power BI per-user subscriptions and Windows Business cloud. Focus on Azure: our eyes will be on the critical growth metric of Azure, which went up to 35% yoy in FY24Q4 (ended June 2024) from 30% yoy in FY24Q3; of this, the AI business contributed 11% vs 8% previously. 业绩表现： 投入：可能快速上升到接近年化900亿美元量级的Capex+Leases，对利润表影响的成本可能在百亿美元以上。 从10K的微软年报来看：我们认爲，微软可能快速上升到900亿美元的Capex+Leases。 我们认爲，微软扩展供应的方式可概括爲两类：1）自建数据中心（从零开始建造的情况下耗时最长，但可以自由配置服务器）；2）租赁（比从零开始建设要更快，但仍需要一定时间）。 在FY2024，微软的建筑合同达到354亿美元，相比去年增长219亿美元，这个是其自建数据中心的前置指标。FY24运营和融资leases合计达到61亿美元，而微软对於FY25年之後总租约规模达到了1632亿美元，这是其租约数据中心的前置指标。 目前主要用於数据中心且尚未开展的operating和financial leases各自是86亿美元和1084亿美元，在去年财报，这两个数字仅仅是77和344亿美元。这些尚未开展的租约在FY25-30年陆续开始。我们认爲，这意味着微软在未来几年中或将从第三方数据中心获得大量电、机柜乃至算力供给。 资本支出：CY2024Q2微软Capex加租赁190亿美元，不加租赁140亿美元。微软指引显示FY25的Capex会比FY24整体高。与彭博一致预期不同，我们认爲FY25年或至少有850亿美元以上的Capex+租约。 Investments: annual capex and leases could rise to nearly USD90bn Total: Microsoft’s 10-K filing for FY24 indicates annual capex and leases shot up to nearly USD90bn, likely adding a cost impact of more than USD10bn in the income statement. Data center supply: we believe that Microsoft expands data server capacities using two main approaches: ·Builds its own: building its own data centers from scratch requires the most time but it allows the company to freely configure its servers. ·Leases: leasing centers still takes time to set them up, albeit less time than that taken to build from scratch. Data center capex and leases: ·Capex: the front-end indicator for Microsoft’s proprietary data centers, construction contracts amounted to USD35.4bn in FY24, USD21.9bn more than in the previous fiscal year. ·Leases: the front-end indicator for leased data centers, FY24 operating and financing leases amounted to USD6.1bn, while post-FY25 leases amount to USD163.2bn. Yet-to-commence leases: operating and financial leases used primarily for data centers but have yet to commence operation amounted to USD8.6bn and USD108.4bn respectively as of FY24, vs USD7.7bn and USD34.4bn in the previous fiscal year. Operations are set to commence in FY25-30E. We reckon this means Microsoft would have large new capacities for electricity, cabinets and computing power from these third-party data centers over the next few years. FY24Q4: capex and leases amounted to USD19bn in the last quarter, or USD14bn excluding leases. Microsoft guides higher capex in FY25E than in FY24. In contrast to Bloomberg consensus, we expect at least USD85bn will be spent on capex and leases in FY25E. 产出：微软Azure增速在FY25H2（CY25H1）有望达到33%-34%。 微软此前指引FY25H2之後Azure的增速将受益於AI服务供应的增加，并将有所加速，我们保守估计Azure 增速或有望达到33%-34%。我们认爲以下因素有望促成该目标：1、微软形成的产品矩阵与品牌效应；2、微软/OpenAI尚待发布的前沿模型；3、微软独特的客户粘性与生态。 Potential payoff: we expect Azure will drive 33-34% growth in FY25H2E The company previously guided Azure’s growth would accelerate from AI service supply increases post-FY25H2E. We conservatively project a 33-34% growth rate, which would likely be driven by the following factors: ·Microsoft’s product matrix and brand effect. ·Microsoft and OpenAI’s cutting-edge models that are waiting to be released. ·Microsoft’s unique customer stickiness and ecosystem. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认爲，在当前Azure服务供不应求的环境下，随着资本支出的不断投入与新前沿模型的发布，公司将会不断释放新的服务供给以满足客户需求，最终拉动营收。我们预测FY25-FY26营业收入将维持不变（2851/3280亿美元），新增FY27年营收3837亿美元，归母净利润将维持不变（FY25/FY26仍爲990/1114亿美元），新增FY27归母净利润1161亿美元，继续维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks In the current environment of short supply of Azure services, constant investments into capex, and releases of new frontier models, we believe Microsoft will continue to release new supply of services to fulfill customer requirements and drive up revenue. We maintain our FY25/26E revenue forecast at USD285.1bn/328.0bn, and add FY27E revenue at USD383.7bn; meanwhile, our net profit forecast is unchanged at USD99.0bn/111.4bn for FY25/26E, and we add FY27E net profit at USD116.1bn. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：云业务供给扩展不及预期，AI发展不及预期，外汇不利影响等 Risks include: weaker-than-expected supply expansion of cloud services; weaker-than-expected AI development; and FX risks. 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