百度集團-SW: 24Q2點評:AI智能雲加速迭代,重視AI時代價值重估

（以下内容从天风国际证券《百度集團-SW: 24Q2點評:AI智能雲加速迭代,重視AI時代價值重估》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Baidu (9888 HK) 24Q2点评：AI智能云加速迭代，重视AI时代价值重估 24Q2E review: Baidu steps up AI smart cloud iteration while LLM leverage expands stock revaluation potential TP:HKD137.00 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 百度2024Q2业绩概览：百度Q2总收入339亿元，同比0%；Non-GAAP经营利润75亿元，同比+2%。 百度Core：24Q2百度Core收入爲267亿元，同比+1%；其中在线营销收入192亿元，同比-2%。主要因爲：宏观经济恢复不如预期，广告客户改善的可见性有限。我们预计在线营销收入在未来几个季度的增长有望保持基本稳固。 非在线营销收入75亿元，同比+10%，主要由智能云业务带动；爱奇艺收入74亿元，同比-5%。AI Cloud收入达51亿元，同比+14%。增长主要由生成式 AI （gen-AI）和基础模型驱动，生成式AI 收入占总AI云收入的 9%。我们认爲，随着ERNIE 的采用不断扩大，百度在基础模型领域继续取得重大进展，百度在 AI CLOUD 领域将有望保持领先。 24Q2E revenue had flat growth but profit ticked up; gen-AI the key driver Key metrics: Baidu’s unaudited 24Q2E results show flat yoy revenue at RMB33.9bn, while it nudged up non-GAAP operating income by 2% yoy to RMB7.5bn. Segmental revenues: ·Core businesses increased revenue by 1% yoy to RMB26.7bn in 24Q2E, comprising: -Online marketing contributed RMB19.2bn, 2% less yoy, which the company attributes to a softer-than-expected macroeconomic recovery and poor advertiser growth visibility. From here, we anticipate stable online marketing revenue growth in the coming quarters. -Non-online marketing generated revenue of RMB7.5bn, up 10% yoy, mainly driven by the smart cloud business. ·iQIYI contributed revenue of RMB7.4bn, down 5% yoy. Key driver: the AI cloud business increased revenue by 14% yoy to RMB5.1bn in the quarter, mostly from generative AI (gen-AI) foundation models at 9% of AI cloud revenue. Profit: non-GAAP operating profit was RMB7.5bn in 24Q2E, including RMB7bn from core businesses; while operating profit margin was 26%. Outlook: with increasing adoption of Baidu’s Ernie large language model (LLM) and advances at its foundation models, we believe Baidu will sustain its AI cloud leadership. 公司正在利用独特的四层 AI 技术栈优化升级 ERNIE 模型。我们看好百度在发展LLM和 Gen AI上的优势，以及通过技术创新改进模型表现、推动人工智能货币化的潜力。整体流量方面，据公司公告披露，百度 6月平均月活爲 7.03亿，同比+4%。搜索占比方面，搜索结果页面中包含生成内容的比例已由5月中旬的11%上升至18%，当搜索结果已经能够满足用户当前查询的需求时，Gen AI将推荐其他内容或服务进一步增强用户的使用时间和留存率。我们认爲运营上百度搜索的改进将提升面向消费者的产品规模。 利润端：2024Q2Non-GAAP运营利润75亿元，其中百度Core爲70亿元，运营利润率26%。 AI business: Ernie LLM upgrades and four-layer AI technology stack applications We believe Baidu has the ability to develop LLMs and gen-AI, and we are bullish about its LLM upgrade and AI monetization prospects via tech innovations. We note these major indicators: ·User traffic: monthly active users averaged 703m in June, up 4% yoy, according to the company’s Q2E results report released in 22 Aug. ·Search ratio: the proportion of content-generated search results pages increased to 18% from 11% in mid-May. When search results have met users’ query requirements, gen-AI would go on to recommend other content or services to enhance usage time and retention rates. We expect search query improvements will expand the scale of consumer-interface products. 智能驾驶：据百度季报会议内容，百度的自动驾驶服务萝卜快跑在24Q2供应的自动驾驶订单约爲89.9万单，同比+26%。截至2024年7月28日，萝卜快跑累计爲公衆提供的自动驾驶出行服务超过7百万单。 百度在2024年6月推出了ERNIE4.0Turbo，扩展了ERNIE的型号，与ERNIE4.0相比运行速度更快，成本更低。同时，萝卜快跑在其最大的营运城市武汉市提供100%的完全无人驾驶营运，标志着一个重要的里程碑。第六代机器人出租车RT6也在进行可扩展测试。 Smart driving: Apollo Go marked 100% driverless ride-hailing milestone in Wuhan 7m orders: Apollo Go fulfilled about 899,000 autonomous driving orders in 24Q2, a yoy increase of 26%. Baidu’s driverless ride-hailing service has provided over 7m orders to the general public as of 28 July 2024. Wuhan fully driverless: the launch of Ernie 4.0 Turbo in June 2024 accelerated the LLM processing speed and cut cost vs the Ernie 4.0. In the same month, Apollo Go marked the milestone of 100% fully driverless operations in Wuhan, its largest operating city. Meanwhile, scalable tests started for the sixth-generation of robotaxis (RT6). 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认爲百度估值的重要矛盾在於其核心业务在线营销何时能贡献额外的增速。国外谷歌也正基於AI大模型的新能力摸索搜索广告新的商业模式与变现能力，百度也正在经历相同阶段，叠加当下广告行业形式，我们认爲百度广告或在未来几个季度有向上好转空间。我们预计FY2024-2026收入爲1362/1503/1673亿元（前值1386/1529/1700亿元），Non-GAAP营业利润调整爲276/314/349亿元（前值280/319/354亿元）。基於SOTP估值，给百度 2024年广告、云业务、爱奇艺非广告收入分别以 8x P/E、3x P/S、14x PE，对应目标价137港元，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks In valuing Baidu, we believe the core business hinges on when the online marketing division will start to contribute incremental growth. In the current competitive landscape, we observe that Baidu and Google are at the same phase in terms of leveraging new AI LLM capabilities to explore business models and monetization pathways for search advertising. We lower our 2024/25/26E revenue forecast to RMB136.2bn/150.3bn/ 167.3bn (previously RMB138.6bn/152.9bn/170bn) and non-GAAP operating profit to RMB27.6bn/31.4bn/34.9bn (previously RMB28.0bn/31.9bn/35.4bn). Our SOTP methodology values segmental revenues thus: advertising at 8x PE, the cloud business at 3x PS and iQIYI’s non-ad revenue at 14x PE in 2024E. This derives our target price of HKD137 and we maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：1、国内云市场竞争加剧；2、互联网监管风险；3、疫情反覆风险；4、宏观经济放缓；5、公司AI产品推进不及预期 Risks include: intensifying competition in the Chinese cloud market; internet industry regulatory risks; pandemic resurgence; a macroeconomic slowdown; and slower-than-expected growth in AI products. 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