裕元集團: 8月製造表現靚麗

（以下内容从天风国际证券《裕元集團: 8月製造表現靚麗》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (0551 HK) 8月制造表现靓丽 August operating data: manufacturing arm did well amid gradual recovery of the global footwear industry BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司公告8月数据 公司24年8月收入7.1亿美元，同增12%；24年1-8月收入54亿，同增0.3%；其中制造业务营收单月同比+21%，累计同比+7%；宝胜营收单月同比-6%，累计同比-9%。 同业8月表现分化，丰泰企业8月收入同减8%，儒鸿8月收入同增+37%。 Update: total revenue up 12% yoy in Aug, with manufacturing clocking 21% yoy Yue Yuen Industrial (YY) released a revenue update for August 2024 on 10 Sept 2024. YY generated revenue of USD710m (up 12% yoy) in August, bringing the first eight months’ revenue to USD5.4bn (up 0.3% yoy). By segment, the manufacturing arm achieved revenue growth of 21% yoy for August and 7% yoy for 24M8, while revenue from Pou Sheng declined 6% yoy for August and 9% yoy for 24M8. Revenue performance by other industry players varied in August, with Feng Tay Enterprises seeing an 8% yoy fall, while Eclat racked up 37% yoy growth. 公司制造业务鞋履产能需求畅旺 公司通过灵活调度产能以及有序加班计划，带动制造业务整体产能利用率及鞋履出货量的良好复甦。惟部分厂区配合加班赶工推高利用率，加之新增产能爬坡，产能负载未达均衡。与此同时，公司致力推行降本增效及严谨费用节约计划，加上低基期效应，带动盈利稳健增长。 随著库存去化周期结束，以及奥运赛事带动，订单能见度随著全球鞋履行业逐渐回暖而有所改善。制造业务迎来良好复甦，盈利稳健增长。 Manufacturing: boosting capacity utilization; earnings benefit from rising demand At its manufacturing business, Yue Yuen (YY) boosted capacity utilization and footwear shipments through flexible scheduling of production capacity and systematic overtime management. However, capacity loads were unbalanced overall because some factories increased overtime and accelerated production to boost utilization rates and the company also ramped up new production capacities. Even so, plans for rigorous cost-cutting and efficiency improvements, as well as a low base effect, helped drive steady profit growth. Bolstered by the Olympics and the end of the inventory depletion cycle, order visibility improved in tandem with a gradual recovery in global footwear fulfillments. As a result, the manufacturing business had a solid recovery and sturdy earnings growth. 2023年库存去化周期结束，24H1全球鞋履需求复甦 2023年全球宏观经济充满挑战、景气波动及消费者信心不足，导致主要鞋履生产国家的鞋履出口金额按年跌幅超过10.0%。而根据葡萄牙鞋业制造商协会（「APICCAPS」）所发布的「全球鞋业年监2024」报告指出，2023年全球鞋履总出口量按年下降9.1%，其中美国人均消费鞋履双数为5.8双，显著低於2022年的8.0双。 24H1根据越南海关数据，越南鞋履出口按年上升8.8%至107亿美元；而印度尼西亚中央统计局数据显示，24H1印度尼西亚鞋履出口按年增加0.7%至32亿美元。 根据中国海关统计，24H1中国鞋履出口按年减少5.4%至234亿美元，而按鞋履出口量则按年增加3.5%至45.2亿双。 24H1: global footwear demand showed signs of recovery from downturn in 2023 Decline in export value/volume in 2023: footwear exports from major footwear-producing countries shrank more than 10.0% yoy, due to a challenging global macroeconomy, economic fluctuations and weak consumer confidence; while global footwear export volume declined 9.1% yoy in 2023, according to the Global Footwear Yearbook 2024 report released by Associa??o Portuguesa Ind. Cal?ado Componentes Artigos Pele Sucedaneos, while per capita footwear consumption in the US dropped to 5.8 pairs, significantly below the 8.0 pairs recorded for 2022. Export value/volume by country for 24H1: ·For Vietnam, footwear exports increased 8.8% yoy to USD10.7bn, according to Vietnam Customs H1 data. ·For Indonesia, footwear exports grew by 0.7% yoy to USD3.2bn, according to the country’s Central Bureau of Statistics. ·For China, footwear exports decreased 5.4% yoy to USD23.4bn, but footwear export volume increased 3.5% yoy to 4.52bn pairs, according to China Customs statistics. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级 裕元为全球最大的运动、运动休闲、休闲鞋及户外鞋制造商，拥有多元化的品牌客户组合及生产基地。其与Nike、adidas、Asics、New Balance、Salomon及Timberland等领导国际品牌拥有长期合作关系，提供享誉盛名的顶级服务。公司遍布全球的产能具备超卓生产能力，於快速反应能力、灵活性、创新能力、设计开发能力以及卓越的品质受到广泛认可。 我们维持盈利预测，预计公司FY24-26年收入分别为86.5亿美元、96.45亿美元、109.35亿美元； 归母净利分别为3.8亿美元、4.2亿美元、4.6亿美元； EPS分别为0.24美元/股、0.26美元/股、0.29美元/股； 对应 PE 分别为 7x、7x、6x。 Valuation and risks YY is the world’s largest manufacturer of sports, athleisure, casual and outdoor footwear, with a diversified portfolio of brand customers and production bases. It has long-term partnerships with leading international brands such as Nike, Adidas, Asics, New Balance, Salomon and Timberland, and is renowned for its excellent service. It is widely recognized for its global production capacities, quick responses and flexibility, innovations, design and development capabilities, and product quality. We maintain our earnings forecasts for the company, expecting 2024/25/26E revenue of USD8.65bn/9.65bn/10.94bn and net profit of USD380m/420m/460m, which implies EPS of USD0.24/0.26/0.29 with corresponding PEs of 7/7/6x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：产能负载未达均衡；全球宏观经济尚未明朗；地域冲突带来航运风险；外汇风险等。 Risks include: uneven capacity utilizations; global macroeconomic uncertainties; geopolitical conflicts raising shipping risks; and FX risks. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）