理想汽車-W: Q2業績逐步築底,需求驅動訂單恢復,全年業績有望向上

（以下内容从天风国际证券《理想汽車-W: Q2業績逐步築底,需求驅動訂單恢復,全年業績有望向上》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Li Auto (2015 HK) Q2业绩逐步筑底，需求驱动订单恢复，全年业绩有望向上 24Q2E results: gradual turnaround as demand and orders pick up; we expect full-year profits to benefit BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24Q2业绩情况：Q2总收入爲317亿人民币，同比增长10.6%，环比增长23.6%；汽车销售收入爲303亿人民币，同比增长8.4%，环比增长25.0%，主要归因於汽车交付量的增加；2024年第二季度其他销售和服务收入爲14亿人民币，同比增长99.6%，环比减少1.7%，主要归因於服务提供和配件销售的增加。 24Q2E performance: revenue up 10.6% yoy and car sales up 8.4% yoy Li Auto released unaudited 24Q2E results on 28 Aug 2024: Key metrics: revenue rose to RMB31.7bn (up 10.6% yoy and 23.6% qoq, with automotive sales contributing RMB30.3bn (up 8.4% yoy and 25.0% qoq), due mainly to an increase in vehicle deliveries. Other sales and services brought in revenue of RMB1.4bn (up 99.6% yoy but down 1.7% qoq), as service deliveries and sales of parts increased. 盈利情况：整体毛利率19.5%，其中车辆毛利率18.7%，高於市场预期18%，L6初步爬坡毛利率高於预期，H2还有进一步规模效应降本逻辑。净利润爲11亿人民币，同比减少52.3%，环比增长86.2%；Non-GAAP净利润爲15亿人民币，同比减少44.9%，环比增长17.8%。 Profitability: Li Auto’s total gross margin came in at 19.5%, with vehicles clocking 18.7%, beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG) by 18%. In particular, the Li L6 (its premium family SUV launched in April) achieved a higher margin than expected. For 24H2E, we see potential for further scale effects and cost reductions. Net profit came to RMB1.1bn, down 52.3% yoy but up 86.2% qoq. Non-GAAP net profit was RMB1.5bn, down 44.9% yoy but up 17.8% qoq. 汽车销量情况：理想24Q2共交付108581台，同比增长25.5%，在20万元以上新能源汽车市场占有率从Q1的13.6%提升到Q2的14.4%，位居国产汽车品牌销量首位。分车型来看，Q2理想L7和L8分列30万元以上中大型SUV销量的前两位；理想L9是全尺寸SUV用户的首选之一；理想L6自六月起单月交付量持续两个月2万辆以上，在20万元以上乘用车市场位列第二名，仅次於特斯拉的Model Y。此外24年7-8月理想共交付99122台，截至8月31日理想汽车今年累计交付921,467辆。 Operational metrics: Sales volumes: for Q2E, Li Auto’s deliveries increased to 10,8581 units, up 25.5% yoy. This bumped its market share of new energy vehicles priced above RMB200,000 from 13.6% in Q1 to 14.4% in Q2, which saw Li Auto take top spot in the sales of domestic automobile brands. Notably, it delivered 99,122 units from July to Aug 24, which brought total deliveries to 921,467 units as of 31 Aug. Sales by model: in Q2E, the Li L7 and Li L8 were ranked among the top two in sales of medium and large SUVs priced above RMB300,000, while the Li L9 was a leading choice for full-size SUV users. In the period since June, monthly deliveries of the Li L6 exceeded 20,000 units for two months in a row, garnering it second place in the passenger car market for models priced above RMB200,000, second only to Tesla’s Model Y. 智能驾驶取得突破：7月公司发布了理想MEGA和L系列的OTA6.0和6.1更新，实现智能驾驶、智能空间和智能电动产品力的全面计划；公司向超过24万的AD max用户推送无图NOA，做到不依赖先验信息，全国都能开。自5月开啓体验以来，门店NOA试驾率翻倍增长，截止目前理想汽车智能驾驶用户使用渗透率已超过了99%，全场景NOA累计里程已突破11.1亿公里。我们认爲公司在智驾取得的突破将推动订单进一步增长。 Smart driving: fresh breakthroughs in NOA to drive further growth In July, Li Auto released OTA 6.0 and 6.1 updates for its MEGA and L series, providing major enhancements designed to enhance its strengths in smart driving, smart space and smart electric products. The company said it had rolled out its map-free Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) feature to more than 240,000 users of its AD Max smart driving system, enabling them to use the system nationwide without relying on a priori data. It noted that, since it made this feature available for test users in May, the proportion of NOA test drives at its stores has nearly doubled. It noted that, to date, its penetration rate for smart driving users had exceeded 99%, while cumulative mileage for NOA in all scenarios had topped 1.11bn km. We believe these breakthroughs in smart driving should help Li Auto achieve further growth in orders. 门店与基础设施布局持续完善：公司中心店占比已提升至31%，门店展位数量环比提升超过13%。截止2024年7月31日，理想汽车在全国146个城市中运营487家零售中心，在220个城市运营411家售後服务中心及反馈中心。在充电网络建设方面，截至8月27日，理想汽车已经运营733座理想超级充电站，配备3428根超级充电桩或将逐步提升後续纯电车型用户体验，覆盖城市和高速重点场景，推动更多用户选择公司纯电产品。 Stores and infrastructure: continuing to expand stores, enhance charging network During Q2E, Li Auto increased the proportion of its district stores to 31%, while the number of vehicle displays grew by more than 13% qoq. As of 31 July, it was operating 487 retail centers in 146 cities across China, as well as 411 after-sales service centers and feedback centers in 220 cities. It also continues to strengthen its charging network, operating 733 super-charging stations equipped with 3,428 super-charging piles as of 27 Aug. We reckon these facilities should gradually improve the user experience for subsequent pure electric models, given their ability to cover both key urban and highway scenarios, thus prompting more users to choose Li Auto’s pure electric products. 後续展望：Q3汽车交付量指引14.5万-15.5万，同比增长38.0%-47.5%，区间间隔大是对下半年宏观需求的不确定；总收入指引394亿-422亿，同比增长13.7%-21.6%。整体毛利率目标Q3回到20%，全年研发费用预期120亿以下。 24Q3E guidance: revenue expected to reach RMB39.4bn-42.2bn For Q3E, the company guides for automobile deliveries of 145,000-155,000 units (up 38.0-47.5%), providing a wider range to factor in uncertainties surrounding macro demand in H2E. Its guidance for overall revenue comes in at RMB39.4bn-42.2bn (up 13.7- 21.6% yoy). It said its overall gross margin target would return to 20% for Q3E, and it expects annual R&D expenses to come to less than RMB12bn. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认爲交易层面对後续消费动能担忧导致财报後超跌。实际上汽车消费在7月份以旧换新政策的带动下有小幅恢复趋势，此後市场需求延续性的确不好判断，但公司3-4Q基本面有望逐步向上，此外伴随各地补贴和优惠政策加速出台有望提升整体需求端动能，我们预计汽车毛利率有望进一步释放，判断理想有望在下半年释放出来自毛利润和净利润的弹性。我们预计公司24/25年调整後净利润105/148亿元 （前值24年139亿元）。 Valuation and risks We believe concerns over follow-up consumption momentum at the trading level have been overrated since the earnings announcement. In fact, automobile consumption showed a slight recovery trend in in July thanks to car trade-in subsidy policies. While it is difficult to gauge the sustainability of market demand, we feel the company’s fundamentals could gradually improve in Q3-Q4E. Also, we reckon the acceleration of subsidies and preferential policies could boost overall demand-side momentum. We expect these factors to benefit the company’s automobile gross margin, enhancing gross profit and net profit in H2E. Thus, we expect Li Auto to achieve adjusted net profit of RMB10.5bn/14.8bn for 2024/25E (previously RMB13.9bn for 2024E). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：汽车售价波动导致的毛利风险；今年新车型不及预期；新能源行业与政策不及预期等 Risks include: volatile car prices impacting gross profit; weaker-than-expected new model rollouts this year; and worse-than-expected new energy market progress and policy impacts. 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