拼多多: 24Q2業績:收入利潤穩健增長,看好公司長期發展

（以下内容从天风国际证券《拼多多: 24Q2業績:收入利潤穩健增長,看好公司長期發展》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Pinduoduo (PDD US) 24Q2业绩：收入利润稳健增长，看好公司长期发展 24Q2E results: solid revenue and profit growth adds to our confidence of PDD’s long-term development strategy BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24Q2业绩要点：收入端及利润端稳健增长。 公司公布24Q2业绩。2024Q2公司营业收入同比增长86%至971亿元，低於彭博一致预期3%；拆分来看，公司24Q2营销服务收入爲491.2亿元，同比增长29%，略低於彭博一致预期；交易服务收入同比增长234%至479.4亿元，我们预测主要系海外业务Temu的快速发展；公司24Q2 Non-GAAP调整後净利润同比增长125.5%至344.3亿元，超彭博一致预期，Non-GAAP净利率爲35.5%，我们认爲主要系费率的有效控制和经营效率的提升。 24Q2E results highlights: both revenue and profit show sturdy gains Pinduoduo (PDD) released unaudited 24Q2E results recently: Key metrics: total revenue rose 86% yoy to RMB97.1bn, 3% lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG). Non-GAAP adjusted net profit increased 125.5% yoy to RMB34.43bn, exceeding BBG. Non-GAAP net margin came to 35.5%, which we believe was mainly because PDD effectively tamped down expense ratios and improved operating efficiency. Segmental revenue: online marketing services saw revenue grow 29% yoy to RMB49.12bn, slightly below BBG. Transaction service revenue rose 234% yoy to RMB47.94bn, which we believe was due mainly to rapid development at Temu, PDD’s international business. 行业竞争激烈，广告及电商增速放缓 公司24Q2营销服务收入同比增长29%，略低於市场预期，增速同环比均有所放缓，交易服务收入同增234%，略低於市场一致预期，我们测算公司增速有所放缓主要系宏观消费疲软叠加Q2 电商旺季竞争激烈，各家补贴有所增加。我们认爲公司加大供给端投入，将GMV重新作爲第一增长目标，应对行业激烈竞争，短期或部分影响货币化率，长期来看公司仍具备强竞争力。 Intense competition pressured advertising and ecommerce revenues in Q2E The company’s online marketing service revenue fell slightly short of market expectations, with growth slowing both yoy and qoq. Transaction service revenue also came in slightly below BBG. We believe growth slowed mainly because of weak macro consumption and fierce competition in the Q2 peak ecommerce season, when subsidies to merchants increased. We reckon PDD’s increased supply-side investment and renewed focus on gross merchandise value (GMV) as its primary growth target in the face of fierce industry competition could partially affect its platform monetization rate over the short term, but we believe it will remain highly competitive in the long run. 注重长期健康发展，将重点投入供应链及优质供给 管理层在业绩会上表示要推进高质量供给建设，大力扶持优质商家，促进平台生态健康发展；公司将在未来的一年内减免100亿优质商家的交易手续费，同时简化商家入驻和商品上架流程，加强平台生态治理。此外关於股东回报，管理层表示公司仍处於投入的阶段，未来几年暂无回购和分红的打算；我们认爲公司加大供给端投入，短期平台货币化率或承压，但有利於部分缓和商家和平台的紧张关系，促进平台长久健康发展。 Top focus: sound long-term growth, strong supply chain, quality sellers At its performance review meeting, management said it will continue to build up quality supply, increase support for high-performance merchants and promote the healthy development of its platform ecosystem. Over the next year, it plans to reduce or waive transaction fees for merchants that achieve RMB10bn sales, simplify merchant onboarding and product listing processes, and strengthen ecosystem governance. Regarding shareholder returns, it said the company is still at the investment stage and has no plans to buy back shares or make dividend payments over the next few years. Even though PDD’s increased investments into the supply business put pressure on monetization rates over the short term, we believe the move could ease merchant-platform tensions while promoting long-term and healthy platform development. TEMU半托管占比稳步提升，带来收入增量 公司於3月中旬在北美推出半托管模式，此後陆续在欧洲、日韩等地区开放，通过将海外仓储、货运及退换责任转嫁到商家，有望持续改善海外UE模型，丰富大件SKU的供给。预计全年海外亏损额可控。 Temu: steadily implementing semi-managed model to help lift incremental revenue The company launched a semi-custodial management model in North America in mid-March, and followed up with further launches in Europe, Japan and South Korea. By transferring responsibility for overseas product warehousing, shipping and returns to merchants, it hopes to improve its user experience model and enhance the supply of high-priced SKUs for the foreign market, which could help rein in full-year losses. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：考虑到电商行业竞争激烈，公司主站收入增速有所放缓，我们下调公司2024-2025年营业收入分别至3990/4863亿元（前值爲4253/5656亿元），同比增长61%/22%；考虑到公司加大供给端投入，我们下调2024-2025年Non-GAAP净利润至1282/1553亿元（前值爲1403/1867亿元），同比增长89%/21%， 对应9月6日收盘价PE分别爲7X/6X，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Given fierce competition in the ecommerce industry and slowing revenue growth at PDD’s main marketplace, we have downgraded our revenue forecasts for 2024/25E to RMB399.0bn/486.3bn (previously RMB425.3bn/565.6bn), for yoy increases of 61/22%. Factoring in the company’s increased investments on the supply side, we have lowered our non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 24/25E to RMB128.2/155.3bn (previously RMB140.3/186.7bn), for yoy increases of 89/21%, corresponding to 6 September closing price PEs of 7/6x. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济不确定性；行业竞争加剧；主站收入增速放缓，货币化率提升不及预期；海外业务开展不及预期；多多买菜业务盈利进度不及预期；海外监管存在不确定性。 Risks include: macroeconomic uncertainties; intensifying competition; slowing revenue growth and lower-than-expected monetization growth in the Chinese business; international business growth failing to meet expectations; Duoduo Maicai profitability failing to meet expectations; and foreign regulatory uncertainties. 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