快手-W: 2024Q2業績點評:GMV增長放緩,利潤率穩健提升

（以下内容从天风国际证券《快手-W: 2024Q2業績點評:GMV增長放緩,利潤率穩健提升》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) 2024Q2业绩点评：GMV增长放缓，利润率稳健提升 24Q2E review: GMV growth slowed but profit margin expanded TP:HKD68.00 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24Q2业绩要点：利润端均超预期，降本增效成果显著 公司公布24Q2业绩。2024Q2公司实现营业收入309.8亿元，同比增长11.6%，超彭博一致预期；Non-IFRS经调整净利润约46.8亿元，超彭博一致预期，利润持续释放。 24Q2E: better-than-expected profit on rigorous cost control and efficiency efforts Key metrics: Kuaishou’s unaudited 24Q2E results report shows: ·Revenue: RMB30.98bn, up 11.6% yoy, better than the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG). ·Adjusted non-IFRS net profit: RMB4.68bn (above BBG) on a stable profit trend. 24Q2公司毛利率同环比均实现提升，主要系公司收入结构改善及公司带宽费用和服务器成本占比有所下降；24Q2公司销售费用爲100.4亿元，销售费用率同比上升1.3pct至32.4%，主要系电商等业务推广投入有所增加，研发费用率及管理费用率分别爲9.1%和2.6%；同比下降2.3个百分点及0.8个百分点，降本增效成果显著。我们认爲公司核心业务收入增长稳健，降本增效成果显著，建议持续关注公司利润率提升趋势。 Profitability: we note the substantial cost reductions and efficiency increases: ·Gross margin increased yoy and qoq on a shift in revenue mix in 24Q2E, as well as a smaller proportion of bandwidth and server costs. ·Sales expenses came to RMB10.04bn, as the sales expense ratio rose 1.3ppt yoy to 32.4% on heavier ecommerce investments and other business promotions. ·R&D expense ratio was 9.1%, down 2.3ppt yoy. ·Administrative expense ratio was 2.6%, down 0.8ppt yoy. Our takeaways: we note that Kuaishou’s core business is maintaining a stable revenue growth trend, and its cost reductions and efficiency improvements are commendable. We suggest investors monitor any upticks in its profit margin trend, going forward. 流量端：用户流量稳健增长，DAU及时长同比均小幅提升 2024Q2快手应用平均日活跃用户/月活跃用户分别爲3.95亿/6.92亿，同比增长5.1%/2.7%；每位日活跃用户的日均使用时长爲122分钟，同比增长4%，24Q2用户总使用时长同比增长9.5%，用户流量稳健增长。展望未来，我们认爲公司单用户获取及留存成本或持续优化，用户获取ROI有望进一步提升。 User traffic: total user traffic grew steadily in 24Q2E as the company nudged up yoy the number of daily active users (DAU) and user time. Details include: ·Active users: DAU on Kuaishou apps averaged 395m users (up 5.1% yoy), while MAU (monthly active users) averaged 692m (up 2.7% yoy). ·User time: usage time per DAU averaged 122 minutes daily, 4% longer yoy; total user time lengthened 9.5% yoy in 24Q2E as user traffic grew steadily. Our outlook: we believe the company will keep drilling down per-user acquisition and retention costs and we expect user acquisition ROI will rise further. 线上营销业务：外循环广告增长强劲，收入增长超预期 2024Q2，公司实现线上营销收入175亿元，同比增长22.1%，主要系公司外循环广告增长显著及内循环广告增长稳健；从外循环来看，24Q2环比Q1增速有加速趋势，其中传媒资讯、电商平台、本地生活等行业增长明显。2024Q2，公司外循环广告产品UAX在各行业的渗透率不断提升，UAX投放消耗占外循环总消耗的30%以上；从内循环来看，24Q2商家使用全站推广产品及智能推广产品进行推广的总消耗达到内循环总消耗的40%；展望Q3，我们预计公司外循环广告维持强劲增长态势，内循环广告仍有望与GMV增速同步。 Online marketing: surge in external ads led to better revenue growth than expected Kuaishou’s online marketing business generated revenue of RMB17.5bn in 24Q2E, up 22.1% yoy, mainly due to a surge in external ads, while internal ad growth was stable: ·External ads: the qoq growth spike in 24Q2E was mostly fueled by markets such as media data, ecommerce platforms and local life services. External ad product UAX increased penetration across several industries and UAX accounted for more than 30% of total external ad consumption. ·Internals ads: merchants use of site-wide promotional products and smart promotion products accounted for 40% of total internal ad consumption. Our Q3E outlook: we expect external ads will maintain strong growth, while internal ads growth would keep pace with GMV growth. 其他服务收入（含电商）：GMV增长有所放缓，泛货架GMV占比有望稳步提升 2024Q2，公司其他服务收入同比增长21.3%至42亿元，快手电商GMV达3052.5亿元，同比增长15%，增长有所放缓主要系宏观环境影响叠加Q2电商旺季竞争较爲激烈。供给端来看，2024Q2公司月均动销商家数同比增长超50%，针对中小商家，公司通过啓航计划配合扶摇计划，帮助新商家冷啓快速扩大规模；需求端来看，2024Q2公司月活跃买家数约1.31亿，同比增长14.1%，月活跃用户渗透率创新高达18.9%；展望Q3，我们认爲随着公司商城场景逐步推进，泛货架GMV占比持续超大盘增长（2024Q2 GMV占比爲25%以上），预计全年GMV同比增速有望达17%； Other services: GMV growth slows; pan-shelf-based GMV set to grow in proportion Kuaishou’s “other services” segment, which includes ecommerce, generated RMB4.2bn revenue in 24Q2E, up 21.3% yoy, with ecommerce GMV contributing RMB305.25bn, up 15% yoy, the slowdown in growth was mainly due to the impact of the macro environment and the fierce competition during the Q2 e-commerce peak season. Supply: average monthly active merchants in 24Q2E increased over 50% yoy. Kuaishou deployed its Set Sail (启航计划) and Uplift (扶摇计划) initiatives to help new merchants quickly expand scale. Demand: the company had 131m monthly active buyers in 24Q2, 14.1% yoy more, while MAU penetration reached a new high at 18.9%. Our Q3E outlook: we believe that as the Kuaishou shopping mall business gains traction, the pan-GMV business will contribute more to total market growth (from over 25% of total GMV in 24Q2E). We expect 17% GMV yoy growth for 2024E. 直播打赏业务：签约公会及主播数量稳健增长 2024Q2公司直播收入爲93亿元，同比下降6.7%，下降幅度较Q1有所收窄。截至二季度末，平台签约公会机构数量同比提升50%，签约公会主播数量同比增长60%；“直播+”生态下，快聘业务日均简历投递次数同比增长超130%，展望未来，我们认爲公司有望通过丰富产品形式（快聘、理想家等），满足不同场景下的用户需求，进一步优化直播生态系统。 Livestreams and tips: number of contracted guilds and anchors growing steadily Kuaishou’s livestream revenue was RMB9.3bn in 24Q2E, down 6.7% yoy, representing a softer decline than in Q1. The number of contracted guilds on the platform increased 50% yoy as of the end of Q2E, and the number of contracted guild anchors increased 60% yoy. Within the livestreaming+ ecosystem, the average daily number of resume submissions in Kwai Hire increased more than 130% yoy. Our outlook: we expect the company will better meet user requirements across different scenarios and optimize its livestream ecosystem by enriching its products (eg Kwai Hire, Ideal Home). 海外业务：ROI驱动增长，追求核心区域商业化变现 2024Q2公司海外业务实现收入11亿元，同比增长141.4%，环比亏损进一步收窄；2024Q2海外业务营销收入同比增长超200%，环比持续提升。我们认爲基於公司海外ROI驱动的增长模式，公司将把重点资源投放在用户较爲集中、生态较爲成熟、可开啓商业化变现的重点国家。 International market: ROI growth; shooting for monetization in core regions The international market generated revenue of RMB1.1bn in 24Q2E, up 141.4% yoy, while its qoq loss trend softened. Of this, marketing revenue increased more than 200% yoy and continued to grow qoq. To flesh out the company’s ROI-driven global growth model, we expect Kuaishou will channel investment resources toward major countries with better user concentration, more mature ecosystems and monetization potential. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：考虑到电商GMV增速放缓，我们下调公司2024-2025年营业收入分别爲1269/1367亿元（24年/25年前值爲1271/1424亿元）；考虑到公司短期投入增加，我们下调公司2024-2025年经调整净利润分别爲174/232亿元（24年/25年前值爲173/268亿元），维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks To factor in slowing ecommerce GMV growth, we lower our forecast to revenue of RMB126.9bn/136.7bn in 2024/25E (previously RMB127.1bn/142.4bn), and to factor in heavier short-term investments, we lower our adjusted net profit to RMB17.4bn/23.2bn (previously RMB17.3bn/26.8bn). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：快手用户规模和时长增长不及预期；直播内容审核趋严；电商付费用户规模以及复购率提升不及预期；海外业务拓展及商业化变现不及预期。 Risks include: lower-than-expected user numbers and user time spent; tightening regulations on online entertainment formats like livestreams and also on content; slower scale-up of paying ecommerce users and lower-than-expected repurchasing rates; and lower-than-expected international market expansion and monetization. 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