美團-W: 收入、利潤超預期,看好公司持續利潤釋放能力

（以下内容从天风国际证券《美團-W: 收入、利潤超預期,看好公司持續利潤釋放能力》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Meituan (3690 HK) 收入、利润超预期，看好公司持续利润释放能力 24Q2E revenue and profit exceeded expectations; we are bullish about incremental profit prospects BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 整体业绩：收入利润均超彭博一致预期。美团24Q2收入823亿元，超彭博一致预期2%；EBIT 113亿元，超彭博一致预期29%。调整後净利润约136亿元，超彭博一致预期28%。分业务来看，核心本地商业收入607亿元，超彭博一致预期1%；新业务收入216亿元，超彭博一致预期5%。 核心本地商业：24Q2收入端和利润端均超预期。24Q2收入607亿元，其中配送服务收入230亿元，佣金收入221亿元，在线营销收入123亿元。24Q2经营利润152亿元，超彭博一致预期24%。 24Q2E unaudited results: revenue and profit outperform Bloomberg consensus Top line: Meituan released strong unaudited results for the second quarter of the year with revenue at RMB82.3bn, 2% above the Bloomberg consensus expectation (BBG). Granular perspectives show: ·Core local segments contributed RMB60.7bn (1% above BBG): -Distribution services contributed RMB23bn. -Commissions contributed RMB22.1bn. -Online marketing contributed RMB12.3bn. ·New business contributed RMB21.6bn (5% above BBG). Bottom line: ·EBIT amounted to RMB11.3bn, 29% better than BBG. ·Adjusted net profit was RMB13.6bn, 28% better than BBG. ·Operating profit was RMB15.2bn, 24% better than BBG. 餐饮外卖：保持稳定增长，运营效率持续提高，用户留存率和订单频次显著改善。1）食品配送方面，公司进一步聚焦货架模式的运营改进，提升“性价比”产品。精细化的运营和策略增强了用户粘性、用户规模和购买频次。2）供应端，公司探索新产品形式。拼好饭日均订单量突破800万单。公司继续扩展品牌卫星店，与更多餐厅合作，以更低价格提供优质选择。3）展望未来，公司将继续创新供应形式，加深供应链渗透，提供更多性价比高的产品。 F&B deliveries showed stable growth; higher user retention and order frequency Food and beverage distribution: Meituan focused on operational efficiencies with a shelf-based sales model and pushed cost-effective products. It fine-tuned operations based on strategies that drove user stickiness, user scale and purchase frequency. Supply expansion: the company continued to explore new product formats in Q2: ·Pin Hao Fan (拼好饭): the business took more than 8m orders daily on average. ·Branded satellite stores: this business expanded coverage to more partner restaurants, which widened its menu of premium offerings at lower prices. ·Outlook: Meituan aims to keep innovating supply formats to deepen supply chain penetration and provide more cost-effective products. 美团闪购：实现强劲增长，年交易用户稳步增加，订单频率增长更快。1）公司深化与各类领先品牌的合作，接入大量品牌店铺，实施多项商户支持措施，以提高交易转化率，推动商户的增量销售。2）公司将美团闪电仓扩展到更广泛的区域。3）公司深入供应链，实施自营采购。 Instashopping: growing annual transaction users; order frequency rose faster ·Brand collabs: the company deepened collaborations with several leading brands, hooked up with many new brand stores and implemented new merchant support measures to raise transaction conversion rates and merchants’ incremental sales. ·InstaMart: Meituan’s online operational support services for merchants expanded coverage to more regions. ·Supply chain: the company deepened supply chain penetration and implemented inhouse procurements. 到店酒旅：到店方面，本季度订单量同比增长超过60%。年交易用户和年活跃商户创下新高。1）公司推出美团团购，利用货架模式满足消费者对性价比产品的需求。2）推广热销产品，通过特价优惠和多种运营策略提升交易用户基础和订单量。3）本季度将神会员计划扩展到更多品类的门店、酒店和旅遊领域的试点城市，并於7月在全国范围内推广。4）继续投资下沉市场，下沉市场的GTV取得显著增长。酒旅方面，国内房晚和GTV方面实现稳定增长。1）公司扩展“酒店+X”套餐，爲消费者提供性价比高的产品，帮助商户进行交叉销售其他服务。2）公司进一步增强在低星级领域的供应能力，爲低星级酒店商户提供全面的在线解决方案。3）对於高星级酒店，公司推出2024年“必住榜”，并加强与高星级酒店集团的联合会员计划，增加独家折扣和特权，推出联合营销活动。 In-store, hotels and travel: commissions and online marketing service fees In-store: the number of orders on the Meituan platform increased more than 60% yoy in the quarter, while annual transaction users and active merchants hit new highs. ·Meituan Group Buys: the company launched this business using a shelf-based sales model to meet consumer demand for value-for-money products. ·Mega-hit products: it increased the user base and order volume through special deals and a variety of operational strategies. ·Shen Hui Yuan (神会员): it expanded this membership program in pilot cities to more categories of stores, hotels and travel in the quarter, prior to the nationwide rollout in July 2024. ·Lower-tier cities: the company continued to invest into this market, which drove up gross transaction volume (GTV) substantially in the lower-tier city market. Hotels and travel: room nights in the domestic market and GTV both had stable growth: ·Hotel-plus packages: the company expanded hotel collaborations to provide consumers with value-for-money products, as well as help merchants to cross-sell other services. ·Low-star hotels: it strengthened supply capacity in this segment to provide comprehensive online solutions for low-star hotel merchants. ·High-star hotels: the company launched the 2024 Must Stay list and firmed the joint membership program with high-star hotel companies, while adding exclusive discounts and privileges, along with joint marketing activities. 新业务：24Q2经营亏损同比收窄至13亿元。24Q2新业务收入216亿元；经营亏损13亿元，好於彭博一致预期38%。公司通过提高产品质量和加强供应商合作，提升美团优选运营效率，导致单品价格和价格加价比率的增加。公司进一步优化履约、改善了营销效率，并优化了资源配置，从而显著减少了亏损。小象超市在产品、运营和履约方面取得显著进展，实现高於行业同行的增长，并提高效率。其他新业务，包括B2B食品配送服务、RMS、共享单车和充电宝，都实现健康增长和效率提升。 New businesses: operating losses narrowed to RMB1.3bn yoy in 24Q2E Revenue generated by the new businesses amounted to RMB21.6bn in 24Q2E, while operating loss at RMB1.3bn outperformed BBG by 38%. ·Meituan Select: operational efficiency improved as the company enhanced product quality and tightened supplier cooperation, which helped raise per-unit prices and price markup ratios. The optimized fulfillments, marketing efficiency and resource allocation, which helped to narrow losses substantially. ·Xiaoxiang Supermarket: efforts to improve products, operations and fulfillments not only raised efficiency but also led its growth rates to surpass industry peers. ·Other new businesses: healthy growth and efficiency improvements were also seen at B2B food delivery services, its Restaurant Management System initiative, and bike and battery sharing. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：美团的核心竞争力在於强大的商户基础以及积累数十年的用户的真实评价，现阶段来看自身护城河依然稳固。现阶段来看，外卖业务壁垒稳固，外部竞争格局逐步清晰，未来美团核心本地商业盈利能力有望持续加强，新业务减亏顺利。考虑到公司业绩超预期，盈利能力持续释放，我们预测美团2024-2026年收入分别爲3347/3843/4333亿元（前值3292/3809/4293亿元），净利润（Non-IFRS）分别爲408/606/724亿元（前值364/530/650亿元），维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Meituan’s competitive edge stems from its strong merchant base and rich data amassed over decades of authentic user reviews. The company has maintained its firm lead in the F&B delivery industry where the competitive characteristics are becoming more visible. We believe Meituan’s core local businesses will continue to drive up profitability, while we expect the new businesses will continue to reduce losses gradually. In view of Meituan’s above-expectation profits and incremental profitability releases, we raise our 2024/25/26E forecast to revenue of RMB334.7bn/384.3bn/433.3bn (previously RMB329.2bn/380.9bn/429.3bn) and non-IFRS net profit of RMB40.8bn/60.6bn/72.4bn (previously RMB36.4bn/53.0bn/ 65.0bn). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：外卖增速放缓；本地生活服务竞争加剧；线下消费恢复持续性存在不确定性；新业务减亏节奏存在不确定性。 Risks include: slowing food delivery growth rates; intensifying competition in local services; uncertainties affecting the offline consumption recovery momentum; and the uncertain loss-reduction pace at the new businesses. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）