泡泡瑪特: 24H1點評:文化出海卓有成效,看好H2加速釋放

（以下内容从天风国际证券《泡泡瑪特: 24H1點評:文化出海卓有成效,看好H2加速釋放》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Pop Mart International (9992 HK) 24H1点评：文化出海卓有成效，看好H2加速释放 24H1E takeaways: growth spike in non-mainland markets; we are bullish about the H2E peak season BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：北京时间2024年8月20日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）发布2024年中期业绩报告。公司2024年上半年实现营收45.6亿元，较去年同期28.1亿元同比增长62%；分地区来看，2024年上半年公司中国内地实现营收32.1亿元，同比增长31.5%；中国港澳台及海外地区实现营收13.5亿元，同比增长259.6%。公司毛利率由去年同期的 60.4%同比上升3.7pct至64%，主要系公司上游议价权提升、海外占比提升及外采产品占比下降；净盈利9.6亿元，调整後净盈利（剔除以股份爲基础的付款报酬）达到10.2亿元，较去年同期的5.4亿元同比提升90.1%。 24H1E revenue up 62% yoy, while non-mainland markets shot up 260% Top line: Pop Mart International released unaudited 24H1E results recently with revenue at RMB4.56bn, up 62% yoy (vs RMB2.81bn). A market breakdown shows: ·Mainland of China: RMB3.21bn, up 31.5% yoy. ·Non-mainland markets: RMB1.35bn, up 259.6% yoy (i.e. Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign markets. Bottom line: net profit came to RMB960m and adjusted net profit (excluding share-based payments) was RMB1.02bn in H1E, up 90.1% yoy (vs RMB540m). Gross margin widened 3.7ppt yoy to 64% (vs 60.4%) in the period, mainly due to better bargaining power in upstream markets, a bigger share of foreign market products and a smaller share of outsourced products. 国内方面，新品持续发力，线下销售持续复甦，线上渠道恢复增长。 线下渠道方面，重点品类发力+精细化运营，助力线下销售持续复甦。2024年上半年，公司国内线下渠道收入实现17.86亿元，同比增长23.1%。其中，零售店/机器人商店分别实现14.71亿元/3.15亿元营收，同比提升24.7%/16.2%。截至24年6月，国内线下门店、机器人商店数量分别达374家、2189家，线下渠道数未明显增加，业绩持续增厚。平均年化单店收入提升至799万，同比提升13%；其中，一线城市平均单店收入增速最快，同比提升19%达960万。我们认爲，重点品类突破叠加品牌国际化持续驱动，线下渠道有望进一步复甦。 线上渠道方面，抽盒机增速回正，平台电商实现突破，内容电商抖音持续高速发展，看好下半年旺季的增长潜力。2024年上半年，公司国内线上渠道实现10.96亿元收入，同比增长34%。其中，抽盒机实现营收3.99亿元，同比增速回正至40%+。天猫渠道实现营收2.0亿元，同比增速达到28.1%，并重回6.18天猫玩具总榜及天猫潮流玩具的销售额第一。公司抖音渠道高质量发展，流量获取及转化效率提升，24H1实现收入2.1亿元，同比增长90.7%，收入占比超过天猫。我们认爲，下半年进入传统销售旺季，8月天猫超品日、10月十一黄金周、11月双十一、12月圣诞节等重要节点活动的驱动，我们看好公司下半年业绩弹性。 产品方面，公司打造热门产品能力持续验证，新品类扩展彰显IP深度延展能力，产品优化持续降本。2024年上半年，四大品类有序增长。其中，手办占比首次低於60%；毛绒品类实现收入4.46亿元，同比增长993.6%；Mega、衍生品及其他品类表现亮眼，分别占总收入比重的12.9%、9.8%。2024年上半年，公司毛利率达64%，同比提升3.6pct，主要系上遊议价权提升，海外占比提升（海外GPM达70%），以及外采品占比下降。同时，公司供应链部门加大在潮玩新材料、新工艺方面的探索，注重产品的可优化空间。我们认爲，随着合作工厂自动化以及良品率的提高，以及越南工厂产能提升，公司商品毛利率有望持续优化。 Mainland market: offline recovery; online growth returned; product development Offline: operational optimizations in key categories spurred recovery Revenue performance: ·Segment total: RMB1.79bn in 24H1E, up 23.1% yoy. ·Revenues: RMB1.47bn from retail stores (up 24.7% yoy) and RMB315m from Robo Shops (up 16.2% yoy) in H1E. ·Network: 374 retail stores (net added 11) and 2,189 Robo Shops (net removed 1) as of June 2024. We note that profitability improved despite only a slight expansion in the store network. Per-store performance: We believe breakthroughs in major categories and the push for brand globalization have aided the company’s offline channel recovery: ·Revenue: annualized average single-store revenue rose to RMB7.99m in H1E, up 13% yoy. ·Segmental markets: first-tier cities generated RMB9.6m revenue in the half-year, up 19% yoy, outpacing other tiers. Online: Pop Draw turnaround; ecommerce breakthroughs; Douyin buffs content Channel revenues: ·Segment total: RMB1.10bn in H1E, up 34% yoy. ·Pop Draw: RMB399m revenue, up over 40% yoy. ·Tmall flagship store: RMB200m revenue, up 28.1% yoy, topping Tmall’s figures and trendy toys best-seller lists at this year’s 618 promotions. ·Douyin: RMB210m revenue, up 90.7% yoy; outperforming Tmall in revenue share. Content quality improved alongside traffic acquisition and conversion efficiency. Outlook: We are bullish about Pop Mart’s profit elasticity in H2E, which is its peak season for online sales. The period is marked by major events such as Tmall Super Product Day in August, Golden Week in October, Double-11 in November and Christmas in December. Products: prowess in creating best-sellers; expanding IP profiles; cost reduction Revenues from the four major categories: ·Collectible figures: RMB2.66bn revenue in H1E (58.3% of the total, the biggest contributor fell below 60% for the first time), up 30.2% yoy. ·Plush toys: RMB446m revenue (9.8% of the total), shot up 993.6% yoy. ·Mega: RMB586m revenue (12.9% of the total), up 141.9% yoy. ·Other IP merchandise and peripherals: RMB869m revenue (19.0% of the total), up 77.5% yoy. Profit performance: ·Gross margin was 64% in H1E, up 3.6ppt yoy, mainly due to better upstream bargaining power, a bigger contribution by foreign markets (70% GPM) and a smaller contribution by externally sourced products. ·Pop Mart’s supply chain department sought out new materials and processes for trendy toys to optimize product growth potential. With automation and yield improvements at cooperative factories, along with production capacity expansion at its Vietnam factory, we expect product gross margin will continue to expand. 海外方面，门店快速拓张，打造全球品牌。2024年上半年，中国港澳台及海外地区实现13.51亿元收入，同比增长259.6%，海外市场保持高速增长。分地区来看，东南亚/东亚及港澳台/北美/欧澳及其他收入分别达5.56/ 4.78 /1.78 /1.4亿元，占海外总收入的41%/ 35.4%/ 13.2%/ 10.3%。截至2024年6月30日，泡泡玛特合计开设零售店83家，机器人商店143间，同比分别增加45/37家。根据公司业绩会，下半年公司计划将於海外新增30-40家门店。根据公司官方社媒整理，7月海外新开9家线下门店（含2家快闪店），开店节奏明显加快，建议持续关注欧美地区门店落地进展。 Non-mainland markets: rapid store network expansion in brand globalization push The company’s non-mainland markets of Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign regions maintained rapid growth and collectively generated revenue of RMB1.35bn in 24H1E, an increase of 259.6% yoy. Revenue by market: ·Southeast Asia: RMB556m revenue (41% share of non-mainland revenue). ·East Asia and Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan: RMB478m revenue (35.4% share). ·North America: RMB178m revenue (13.2% share). ·Europe and Australia: RMB140m revenue (10.3% share). Store network: Pop Mart opened 83 retail stores (added 45 yoy) and 143 Robo Shops (added 37 yoy). Management said at the results conference it will add 30-40 stores in non-mainland markets in H2E. Pop Mart’s official social media accounts indicate store openings have accelerated with 9 new offline stores (including 2 pop-ups) in July. We would monitor its store opening pace in Europe and the US from here. IP及品牌构筑核心竞争力，多业务线完善IP运营框架，IP价值不断挖掘。2024年上半年，泡泡玛特旗下包括MOLLY、SKULLPANDA、THE MONSTERS、Hirono小野、Zsiga等在内的7个IP营收破亿，收入分布更加均衡。2024年6月，公司首款积木产品上线，丰富IP故事呈现。同月，首款自研手遊《梦想家园》正式上线，进一步拓宽IP内容边界。同时，公司通过提供泡泡玛特城市乐园、潮玩节、艺术家签售会等沉浸式体验，加深与消费者情感链接，探索IP价值实现新路径。 IP multiform framework: mobile game and building block inaugural launches Major IPs: Pop Mart’s seven major IP characters helped to stabilize revenue distribution in H1E, when they surpassed the RMB100m revenue level. They include Molly, SkullPanda, The Monsters, Hirono and Zsiga. The company added to its IP narrative with the inaugural launch of its building block product in June 2024. In the same month, it also rolled out its first proprietary mobile game, Dream Home, extending its IP content horizon. Outlook: Pop Mart’s marketing forays increase IP value with immersive experiences such as Pop Land, Pop Toy festivals and artist autograph sessions. We believe its multiple IP interfaces deepen emotional connection with consumers. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：短期公司国内海外业务持续高景气度释放业绩，新品类有序推出，我们预计泡泡玛特2024-2025年收入爲100.1/ 135.6亿元（前值爲94.4/ 125.3亿元），同比增长58.8%/35.5%；2024-2025年调整後净利润（Non-IFRS）分别爲23.1/ 31.5亿元（前值爲分别爲21.03/ 27.49亿元），同比增长94.3%/ 36.2%。长期来看，IP变现渠道进一步拓宽有望贡献业绩增量，我们长期看好公司IP的运营能力和变现潜力，维持“买入”评级。 Forecast and risks We raise our forecast for Pop Mart to revenue of RMB10.01bn/13.56bn in 2024/25E (previously RMB9.44bn/12.53bn), up 58.8%/35.5%; and non-IFRS net profit of RMB2.31bn/3.15bn (previously RMB2.10bn/2.75bn), up 94.3%/36.2%. We expect IP monetization will continue to add incremental profit in the long term and we remain bullish about the lucrative prospects of IP operations. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险；IP的表现不及预期；新业务表现不及预期 Risks include: intensifying competition in the trendy toy market; weaker-than-expected IP monetization; and slower-than-expected new business expansion. 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