阿里巴巴-SW: 雲智能、本地生活盈利釋放,8月底或完成雙重上市

（以下内容从天风国际证券《阿里巴巴-SW: 雲智能、本地生活盈利釋放,8月底或完成雙重上市》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) 云智能、本地生活盈利释放，8月底或完成双重上市 FY25Q1E takeaways: smart cloud earnings shot up amid lackluster Taobao and Tmall; dual listings finally in effect BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司披露FY25Q1季度报告 FY25Q1阿里实现收入2432亿元，yoy+4%，低於彭博一致预期2.7%。经营利润爲360亿元，yoy-15%，超彭博一致预期9%。经调整EBITA爲450亿元，yoy-1%，超彭博一致预期5.8%。调整後净利润爲407亿元，yoy-9%，超彭博一致预期4.0%。 股份回购方面，截至FY25Q1，公司以58亿美元的总价回购总计6.13亿股普通股，包括於2024年5月23日可转换票据发行同时透过非公开市场交易回购的约12亿美元的美国存托股。截至2024年6月30日，公司流通的普通股爲190.24亿股，相比於2024年3月31日，净减少了4.45亿股普通股。 分业务：淘宝天猫集团收入1134亿元，低於彭博一致预期3.6%，其中零售收入1074亿元，包括客户管理收入801亿元，直销收入273亿元；经调整EBITA达488亿元，超彭博一致预期0.3%。云智能集团和本地生活本季度盈利释放，EBITA大幅好於预期。本地生活收入162亿元，超彭博一致预期0.3%，经调整EBITA-4亿元，好於彭博一致预期81.0%。云智能集团收入265亿元，超彭博一致预期1.1%，经调整EBITA 23亿元，超彭博一致预期62.5%。 June-quarter revenue grew 4% yoy and profit decline was softer than expected Key metrics: Alibaba recently released unaudited results for FY25Q1E (the quarter ended June 2024): ·Revenue arrived at RMB243.2bn, up 4% yoy (2.7% worse than the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG)). ·Operating profit was RMB36.0bn, down 15% yoy (9% better than BBG). ·Adjusted EBITA at RMB45.0bn, down 1% yoy (beating BBG by 5.8%). ·Adjusted net profit at RMB40.7bn, down 9% yoy (beating BBG by 4.0%). Share buybacks: Alibaba bought back 613m ordinary shares for USD5.8bn in FY25Q1E, including USD1.2bn of American depositary shares in privately negotiated transactions, alongside the issuance of convertible notes on 23 May 2024. It has 19.02bn ordinary shares outstanding as of 30 June 2024, a net decrease of 445m shares from 31 March 2024. Revenue streams: ·Taobao and Tmall: revenue dipped 1% yoy to RMB113.4bn in FYQ1E (3.6% worse than BBG): -Retail contributed RMB107.4bn: RMB80.1bn from customer management and RMB27.3bn from direct sales. -Adjusted EBITA dipped 1% yoy to RMB48.8bn (beating BBG by 0.3%). ·Smart cloud and local services posted much better EBITA than expected: -Smart cloud generated revenue of RMB26.5bn (1.1% better than BBG); and adjusted EBITA came to RMB2.3bn (62.5% better than BBG). -Local services drew revenue of RMB16.2bn (0.3% above BBG); with adjusted EBITA loss at RMB386m, (81% better than BBG). 淘宝天猫集团：FY25Q1收入1134亿元，经调整EBITA爲448亿元。1）公司对具价格竞争力的商品、客户服务、会员体系权益和技术等战略举措加大投入，带来更高的消费者留存率和购买频次。2）通过在推荐和匹配算法等技术上的投入，通过由多元化供应商提供更多有价格竞争力的供给，改善产品与用户需求的匹配度，提升用户流量转化爲购买力。3）4月推出AI驱动的全平台市场营销工具“全站推广”，具备自动出价、优化目标人羣定位和效果看板可视化功能，有望提高商家市场营销投入及改善其市场营销效率，目前使用产品的商家数稳步提升。4）购买人数和购买频次的增长下，线上GMV同比高单位数增长，订单量同比双位数增长。公司成功举办淘宝天猫618购物节，其线上GMV同比实现强劲增长。5）高端消费者方面，88VIP会员数量持续同比双位数增长，超过4200万。 Taobao and Tmall: RMB113.4bn revenue and RMB48.8bn adjusted EBITA in FYQ1E ·More investments: the company added investments into its strategic initiatives – competitive merchandise pricing, customer services, membership benefits, technological enhancements – which increased consumer retention and purchasing frequency. ·Tech enhancements included recommendation and matching algorithms, and more competitively priced merchandise from diverse suppliers. These enabled better matching of products and user requirements, and drove up user traffic conversion to purchases. ·Quanzhantui AI marketing: Alibaba launched Quanzhantui, its new AI-driven marketing tool in April. The platform-wide tool offers full-site promotions through functionalities like automated bidding, optimized consumer group targeting and dashboard visualization. Merchants would spend more on marketing but raise their marketing efficiency, and we note a steady increase in the number of merchants adopting the tool. ·GMV growth: online GMV increased by a high-single-digit yoy in FYQ1E and order volume expanded by a double-digit yoy. This year’s 618 shopping festival at Taobao and Tmall saw a yoy growth spike in online GMV. ·Premium shoppers: 88VIP members increased to more than 42m, a double-digit yoy growth trend. 云业务：减亏进展超预期，FY25Q1收入265亿元，yoy+6%，经调整EBITA 23亿元。整体收入（不计来自阿里巴巴并表业务的收入）同比增长超过6%，由公共云业务的双位数增长和AI相关产品的采用量提升所带动。AI相关产品收入持续录得三位数同比增长。公司继续对客户和技术进行投入，以提升AI领域的云采用量。大模型方面，通义千问第二代开源模型在推理、代码生成和数学等领域展现显著的性能提升，同时增强安全功能，扩展至支持27种语言。使用阿里云AI平台（百链）的付费用户数量环比增长超过200%。 Smart cloud: revenue rose 6% yoy and loss reduction was better than expected Excluding Alibaba-consolidated subsidiaries, smart cloud revenue increased over 6% yoy to RMB26.5bn in the quarter on double-digit growth in public cloud and wider adoption of AI products: ·AI products: revenue shot up by a triple-digit yoy as Alibaba continued to invest into customers and technology to increase cloud adoption in its AI business. ·LLM: Alibaba’s open-source large language model Qwen 2.0 took big strides ahead in terms of inference, code generation and mathematics, while enhancing security features and expanding its support interface to 27 languages. ·Bailian AI platform: the number of paying users of Alibaba Cloud’s Bailian AI platform surged more than 200% qoq. AIDC：AIDC收入293亿元，yoy+32%，经调整EBITA -37亿元。速卖通和Trendyol平台加大对欧洲和海湾地区等特定市场的投入，以提升消费者心智。速卖通平台扩大其供应商范围，现已包括本地商家。此外，速卖通与巴西领先零售商Magazine Luiza（“Magalu”）建立合作关系，双方将在对方平台上开设和运营门店。Choice的单位经济效益环比显著改善。 Global ecommerce: AIDC revenue up 32% yoy; wider adjusted EBITA loss Alibaba’s international digital commerce (AIDC) generated revenue of RMB29.3bn in the quarter (yoy +32%), but adjusted EBITA loss widened to RMB3.7bn: ·Europe and Gulf markets: AliExpress and Trendyol platforms increased investments to increase consumer mindshare in these markets. ·Local suppliers: AliExpress expanded its range of suppliers to include local merchants. ·Brazilian partnership: AliExpress forged ties with leading Brazilian retailer Magazine Luiza, where each party would open and operate a storefront on the other’s platform. ·Choice: cross-border business expanded substantially on this premium service under AliExpress, which also had much better unit economics qoq. 其他业务：菜鸟收入268亿元，yoy+16%，经调整EBITA 6亿元，主要由跨境物流履约解决方案收入增长所带动。本地生活收入162亿元，yoy+12%，由高德和饿了麽订单增长，市场营销服务收入增长带动，由於运营效率改善和业务规模提升，本地生活亏损同比大幅收窄。DME收入56亿元，yoy+4%，主要由其演出赛事线上票务平台的GMV及收入增长所带动。 Other businesses: Cainiao, local services and DME drove up revenues ·Cainiao: revenue came to RMB26.8bn in the quarter (yoy +16%) and adjusted EBITA was RMB600m, driven mainly by cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions. ·Local services: revenue was RMB16.2bn (yoy +12%) on order growth at Amap and Ele.me, as well as higher marketing service revenue. Losses narrowed substantially yoy on better operational efficiency and business scale expansion. ·Digital media and entertainment: revenue was RMB5.6bn (yoy +4%), mainly due to GMV and revenue growth in the online ticketing platform for shows and events. 双重主要上市进展：公司已於8月28日完成香港联交所和纽交所双重主要上市。我们认爲双重上市後公司更易於被纳入“港股通”，有望带动流动性提升。 Dual primary listings: Alibaba completed the process on 28 Aug for dual primary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange. We believe dual-listed stocks have a higher likelihood of inclusion in Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could mean better liquidity. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：考虑到国内电商行业竞争或加剧，以及公司持续投入以推进国际电商业务。我们预计阿里巴巴FY 2025-2027年收入爲10110/11097/12122亿元（前值10249/11236/12193亿元）；考虑到公司长期将专注於提高运营及投资效率，AIDC、本地生活等其他业务盈利能力有望逐步提高，我们预计FY 2025-2027年归属股东净利润（Non-GAAP）爲1471/1825/2016亿元（前值1565/1622/1647亿元），维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Anticipating potentially more intense competition ahead in the Chinese ecommerce industry, as well as Alibaba’s constant investments into its international ecommerce business, we tweaked our revenue forecast to RMB1.01tr/1.11tr/1.21tr in FY25/26/27E (RMB1.02tr/1.12tr/1.22tr previously). And in view of its focus on raising operational and investment efficiency for the long term, and our expectation that profitability will improve gradually at AIDC and local services, we adjusted our non-GAAP net profit to RMB147.1bn/ 182.5bn/201.6bn in FY25/26/27E (RMB156.5bn/162.2bn/164.7bn previously). We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济下行、疫情反覆，消费疲软；政策监管风险；电商行业竞争加剧；新业务发展不及预期 Risks include: a macroeconomic downturn; pandemic resurgence; weak consumption; policy and regulatory risks; intensifying ecommerce competition; and slower-than-expected growth at new businesses. 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