包裝印刷: 重視紅利價值、格局優化及景氣賽道

（以下内容从天风国际证券《包裝印刷: 重視紅利價值、格局優化及景氣賽道》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Containers & Packaging 重视红利价值、格局优化及景气赛道 Investment themes: dividends, optimal restructure and boom segments 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 主线一：把握红利价值。包装行业规模大、集中度低，软塑/纸包爲主流包材类型，龙头厂商在产品研发/产能布局/资金实力/供应链能力等方面形成领先优势，获取头部客户供应商资质认证後可形成持续性服务能力，相对易守难攻，市场份额稳健提升。此外，智能化、数字化能力带来生产效率提升爲龙头超额收益核心来源；伴随前期扩产渐入收获期，行业发展日趋成熟，龙头盈利能力及ROE提升、分红能力增强，具备较强防御属性。推荐3C赛道景气、多元品类持续拓展、分红提升的纸包龙头裕同科技（24年股息率4.9%），以及内销经营具韧性、海外市场贡献增量的高股息软塑龙头永新股份（24年股息率7.0%）等。 Theme I: Dividend stocks Profile: the Chinese packaging industry is a large-scale one with low concentration, where soft plastics and paper are the main materials. Leading manufacturers have the following competitive advantages: ·Product R&D, capacity buildout, financial firepower and supply chain capabilities. ·Sustainable service capacities on qualification and certification by major customers and suppliers provide a defensive advantage that drives market share expansion. ·Intelligentization and digitalization capabilities improve production efficiency and provide a profit premium. ·As their production buildout enters the pay-off phase as the industry nears maturity, profitability and ROE start to kick in and with it the ability to pay out dividends, making major players highly defensive. Stocks: we would monitor these companies: ·Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology: leading paper packaging producer thriving in the 3C sector: -Widening product category coverage -Rising dividend trend -2024 dividend yield was 4.9%. ·Huangshan Novel: a high-dividend flexible plastic packaging leader: -Resilient Chinese market sales -Foreign markets contribute incremental sales -2024 dividend yield was 7.0%. 主线二：把握格局优化。金属包装盈利能力受供需结构及原材料价格走势影响，其中三片罐供需均衡，厂商&客户深度绑定，片价传导能力强，利润表现可观（毛利率区间15-25%）；二片罐国内需求平稳，龙头扩产激进导致供过於求，行业处盈利低位，当前龙头之间发起要约收购，整合落地有望加速竞争格局改善，此外龙头资本开支节奏放缓，预计盈利中枢有望底部向上。建议积极关注原材料红利逐步显现、二片罐盈利弹性更高的宝钢包装，以及兼具两片罐盈利修复弹性&三片罐稳健利润贡献的昇兴股份、奥瑞金、嘉美包装。 Theme II: Industry structure optimization Profile: metal packaging sector profitability is driven by the supply-demand balance and raw material price trends: Three-piece cans: ·Balanced supply and demand ·Strong ties between manufacturers and customers ·High price transmission ·Considerable profits with gross margins ranging 15-25%. Two-piece cans: ·Stable Chinese market demand ·Over-expansion of production capacities by leading players led to the current oversupply ·Low profitability levels: leading companies have initiated M&A and we expect industry integration will enhance competitiveness; capex spending has also slowed, which could help profitability bottom out and turn around. Stocks: we would monitor these companies: ·Shanghai Baosteel Packaging: we would keep an eye on the emerging profit potential from raw material price trends, as well as higher profitability elasticity in its two-piece-can business. ·Sunrise Group and ORG Technology: these companies enjoy both profitability recovery elasticity in the two-piece-can business and stable profit contributions from their three-piece-can business. Other not-rated market players: Jiamei Food Packaging (002969 CH). 主线三：把握景气赛道。我国药玻行业稳定扩容（12-21年CAGR爲3.7%），产品年化需求约800亿支，其中中硼硅药玻渗透率不到10%。中硼硅产品性能优异、进入壁垒较高，目前国内仅4家企业实现转“A”认证，山东药玻占据大部分市场份额，行业格局优异，且盈利能力较强。伴随一致性评价及关联审评政策驱动，根据制药网预测，中硼硅药玻渗透率有望达到30-40%，替代空间相对广阔。推荐中硼硅模制瓶通过转“A”认证、客户储备丰富、新增产能加速释放的力诺特玻。 Theme III: Boom segments Profile: the pharmaceutical glass industry in China has expanded steadily and CAGR was 3.7% over 2012-21. Annual product demand comes to about 80bn pieces, of which borosilicate has penetrated less than 10%. Neutral borosilicate products offer high-performance traits and provide high barriers to entry. Only four Chinese companies have obtained A certification and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (600529 CH, BUY) has the lion‘s share of the market, which has a favorable industry structure and strong profitability. We expect the penetration of borosilicate into the pharmaceutical glass market will reach 30-40% in the future and we see broad potential for Chinese substitution. Stocks: we recommend Shandong Linuo Technical Glass: it obtained A certification for its borosilicate molded bottles; enjoys plenty of customer resources; and is accelerating new production capacity rollouts. 风险提示：下游需求恢复不及预期；行业竞争加剧；行业并购整合进度较慢；原材料价格波动等 Risks include: weaker-than-expected recovery in downstream demand; intensifying competition; slow progress in industry M&A; and raw material price fluctuations. Email: research@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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