思摩爾國際: 中國內地市場觸底反彈,海外市場合規優勢凸顯有望實現高增!

（以下内容从天风国际证券《思摩爾國際: 中國內地市場觸底反彈,海外市場合規優勢凸顯有望實現高增!》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Smoore International (6969 HK) 中国内地市场触底反弹，海外市场合规优势凸显有望实现高增！ 24H1 results takeaways: Smoore set for higher growth on compliance advantage as mainland market bottoms out BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 24H1自有开放式品牌市场份额提升，带动盈利能力回升 分版块来看，2024H1公司面向零售客户销售（APV）实现收入11.16亿元（占比22.1%），同比增长71.9%，主要因来自欧洲及其他市场收入同比增长88.0%，来自美国市场收入同比增长20.6%；面向企业客户销售（ODM）实现收入39.22亿元（占比77.9%），同比减少12.3%，主要由於来自欧洲及其他市场销售收入同比下降16.0%，来自美国市场的销售收入同比下降9.8%。此外，由於欧洲对电子雾化市场监管力度逐步加强，传统一次性产品需求正向新型封闭式及开放式产品转化，使得部分客户对传统一次性产品的需求受到较大影响，2024H1公司一次性产品实现收入12.17亿元，同比下降18.9%。从盈利水平来看，2024H1毛利率爲38.0%，同比提高1.8pct；净利率爲13.6%，同比降低0.4pct；毛利率上升主要因毛利率较高的面向零售客户销售（APV）的自有品牌业务有较大增长，收入占比提高，同时公司扩大降本增效覆盖的产品范围，推动成本降低。 分地区来看，欧洲及其他市场爲第一大销售地区，销售占比爲45.4%；其次爲美国（考虑通过中国香港转运的产品），销售占比约爲36.9%，同比降低3.3pct；扣除中国贸易商的出口销售，中国内地市场销售占比爲1.7%，同比提高0.5pct。 24H1E revenue and net profit dipped yoy; Smoore brands expand market share Key metrics: Smoore International released unaudited 24H1E results recently: - Revenue arrived at RMB5.04bn, down 1.7% yoy; - Net profit came to RMB683m, down 4.8% yoy. Business channels: - Retail APV rose 72%: advanced personal vaporizers (APV) sold to retail customers generated revenue of RMB1.12bn (22.1% of the total) in 24H1E, up 71.9% yoy; mostly because Europe and some other markets contributed 88.0% yoy more and the US contributed 20.6% more revenues yoy. - ODM shrank 12%: original design and manufacturing sales to corporate customers generated RMB3.92bn revenue (77.9% of the total) in H1E, down 12.3% yoy; mainly because Europe and some other markets contributed 16.0% yoy less and the US contributed 9.8% yoy less in sales revenues. - Product demand shift: increasingly strict regulation in the European e-cigarette market has led a demand shift from traditional disposables toward prefilled and open systems. The trend impacted demand from some of Smoore’s traditional disposables customers and revenue from traditional disposable products fell 18.9% yoy to RMB1.22bn in H1E. Profitability: gross margin widened 1.8ppt yoy to 38.0% and net margin dipped 0.4ppt yoy to 13.6% in H1E: - Smoore attributes gross margin expansion to strong growth in higher-gross-margin private-label sales from APV retail customers and a bigger revenue share. - The company also drilled down costs by broadening the product scope of its cost and efficiency measures. Sales markets: - Europe and some other regions remained Smoore’s largest sales market in H1E at 45.4% of total sales; followed by the - US at 36.9% of sales, 3.3ppt lower yoy (including products transshipped through Hong Kong); - Mainland of China accounted for 1.7% of sales, up 0.5ppt yoy (excluding exports by Chinese traders). 研发储备及计划：公司持续加大研发投入，2024H1年公司研发开支爲7.60亿元，同比增长23.7%，占营收的比重达到15.1%；其中用於雾化医疗及雾化美容产品研发开支1.85亿元，同比增长63.2%，公司於2024年第一季度重磅推出MOYAL岚至品牌和第一代雾化美容产品解决方案，爲业内首款实现高粘度护肤精华雾化的美容产品，用於电子尼古丁传输系统研发开支4.82亿元，同比增长15.1%，公司於2024上半年推出多款新型产品解决方案，包括世界首款四面环绕屏超高瓦数一次性产品以及全球首款20000口高爆发双芯一次性产品；此外，开放式产品XRO4备受消费者喜爱，助力公司开放式自有品牌的市场份额持续提升，已成爲头部品牌。 Nimble pipeline: product rollouts keep pace with rising R&D investments Smoore maintained its R&D focus and stepped up investments to RMB760m in H1E, up by 23.7% yoy, and which accounted for 15.1% of revenue. R&D spending by product category was as follows: - Medical and beauty R&D: RMB185m, up 63.2% yoy: Smoore launched Moyal in Q1, its inaugural beauty brand of atomized skin care solutions. The company believes Moyal is the first atomized beauty brand in the market to deliver highly-viscose essences. - E-nicotine systems R&D: RMB482m, up 15.1% yoy: the company launched several new e-nicotine solutions in H1, including under its Feelm brand 30,000-puff four-sided-surround-screen ultra-high-wattage and 20,000-puff high-burst dual-ceramic-coil disposable vapes, both of which the company describes as world firsts. - Open-system vaping: meanwhile, Smoore’s XRO4 is well received by consumers and helped expand market share for its Vaporesso brand of open-system vaping solutions. 首款薄荷醇口味电子烟过审，FDA执法力度加强，利好龙头品牌公司 近期，美国FDA先後批准了四款NJOY薄荷味电子烟产品以及七款Vuse Alto电子烟产品，截至2024年7月18日，FDA已经收到近2700万份产品申请并对其中约96%的申请完成审查，已批准34种电子雾化产品和设备，其中17款产品来自公司客户。受益於FDA执法力度加强，公司在美国市场换弹式产品收入呈现逐季向好趋势，2024Q2收入同比增长约6.5%，环比增长约6.1%。我们认爲美国电子烟市场的“类菸草化管理”大势所趋，监管趋严背景下大品牌、大公司的资源、技术储备可以应对不断提升的准入门槛和监管成本，龙头品牌的竞争力和市场占有率有望继续提升。 Vape product compliance adds market edge; menthol vape set for market entry Tightening regulation: the US FDA recently approved Smoore customer NJOY’s four menthol-flavored e-cigarette products and seven Vuse Alto e-cigarette products. In terms of the US FDA approval process, it has received nearly 27m applications and completed reviews for about 96% as of 18 July 2024; of these, the regulator approved 34 vaping devices and solutions, 17 of which are from Smoore’s customers. Compliance advantage: increasingly stringent market regulation is driving a revenue rise for Smoore’s refillable products in the US market as 24Q2E revenue rose about 6.5% yoy and 6.1% qoq. We believe tobacco-related regulatory control is an inevitable trend in the US e-cigarette market. In the face of tightening regulation, we believe only market players with sizable resources and technological reserves would be able to cope with the rising entry barriers and regulatory costs. Hence, leading brands are likely to continue to rise in competitiveness and market share. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 盈利预测及投资建议 我们认爲，公司作爲提供雾化科技解决方案的全球领导者，壁垒优势不断凸显，在监管不断趋严的背景下，预计产业链集中度或将加速提升。受益於一次性产品监管趋严，公司收入结构发生变化，高毛利APV业务拉高整体利润率，我们上调公司2024-2026年净利润爲16.75/21.52/26.03亿元（前值爲16.64/20.71/24.62亿元），同比增长1.82%/28.48%/20.94%。基於公司的技术和龙头优势，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks We expect Smoore will continue to hone its competitive edge as a vape tech solution market leader in the face of increasingly stringent regulations, which would likely increase value chain market concentration. The company shifted its revenue mix in response to tightening regulatory control over disposable products and high-gross-margin APV business is driving up total profit margin. We raise Smoore’s net profit forecast to RMB1.68bn/2.15bn/2.60bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB1.66bn/2.07bn/2.46bn), up 1.82%/28.48%/20.94%. Based on Smoore’s tech and market leading edge, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock. 风险提示：新型菸草政策变动风险，美国FDA监管变动风险，销售不及预期风险，消费者拓展速度不及预期风险，公司产能建设不及预期风险，新技术开发不及预期风险，价格变动风险，汇率风险。 Risks include: new-tobacco policy changes; US FDA regulatory changes; lower-than-expected sales; slower-than-expected consumer take-up; worse-than-expected production capacity buildout; worse-than-expected new technology development; pricing changes; and FX risks. 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