騰訊控股: 盈利靚眼,遊戲加速—騰訊控股2Q2024業績點評

（以下内容从天风国际证券《騰訊控股: 盈利靚眼,遊戲加速—騰訊控股2Q2024業績點評》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) 盈利靓眼，遊戏加速—腾讯控股2Q2024业绩点评 24Q2E results: perkier profit overall; we see games driving revenue growth in H2E TP：HKD476.00 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 整体业绩：盈利表现靓眼，市场预期或存进一步上修空间 2Q2024公司收入同比+8%，环比+1%，与彭博预期基本一致。2Q2024公司Non-IFRS经营利润同比+27%，环比基本持平；Non-IFRS净利润同比+53%，环比+14%，大幅超过彭博预期值86亿。连续2个季度Non-IFRS归母净利润同比增速超过50%，2年CAGR分别达40%、43%。 2Q2024公司毛利同比+21%，环比+2%；毛利率约53.3%，同比+5.8pct，环比+0.7pct；毛利率水平略好於彭博预期。公司管理层在业绩会上表示，预计收入结构向高毛利率业务组合转变是一个持续多年的现象，毛利增长将继续快於收入增长，但随着效率措施边际效果减弱，毛利增长可能从2倍以上的收入增长乘数变爲1-2倍的收入增长乘数。 2Q2024Non-IFRS净利润增速大幅超过经营利润增速，部分来自於：1）2Q2024公司Non-IFRS分占联合营损益同比净增60亿元，环比净增44亿元，主要由於若干国内联营公司及海外遊戏工作室联营公司业务表现提升。公司管理层在业绩会上表示，预计下半年分占联合营公司损益的同比增长或有所回落。2）2Q2024公司所得税开支同比下降9%，主要由於一家海外附属公司的递延所得税调整导致去年同期基数较高。公司管理层在业绩会上表示，预计2024年全年Non-IFRS所得税率降至18%-20%区间（2023年爲22%）。 我们在前期报告《腾讯控股（0700.HK）：DNF手遊表现靓眼，盈利预期进入上修通道》（2024.05.27）中明确指出，遊戏增长预期修复叠加收入结构带来的毛利率有利影响，市场盈利预期存在进一步上修潜力。截止2024/8/16，彭博一致预测2024年Non-IFRS净利润较2Q24业绩前上调4%（约88亿），较我们前期报告发布後上调约6%（约115亿）。展望下半年，我们认爲腾讯基本面将继续呈现2大特徵，增量业务发展带动毛利同比较高增长，遊戏收入增速继续提升，当前彭博预期或仍存一定上修空间。 24Q2E posts robust earnings; potential upward revisions in market expectations Key metrics: Tencent Holdings reported unaudited 24Q2E results recently: ·Revenue rose 8% yoy and 1% qoq, somewhat in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates (BBG). ·Non-IFRS operating profit rose 27% yoy but was flat qoq. Non-IFRS net profit came in RMB8.6bn above BBG, rising 53% yoy and 14% qoq, while attributable non-IFRS net profit increased over 50% yoy for two straight quarters; with 2-year CAGRs of 40% and 43% respectively. Profitability: 24Q2E gross profit grew 21% yoy and 2% qoq, with gross margin at 53.3%, up 5.8ppt yoy and up 0.7ppt qoq, a tad above BBG. Management said at the results investor conference that it believes the higher-margin shift in revenue mix will be a multi-year trend and gross profit growth could outpace revenue growth. And that as the marginal impact of efficiency measures diminishes, the gross profit driver of over-2x revenue growth multiplier could subside to 1-2x. Non-IFRS net profit growth in Q2E outpaced operating profit growth, partly because: ·Tencent’s share of JVs’ non-IFRS earnings in 24Q2E increased by RMB6bn yoy and RMB4.4bn qoq, as business improved at some Chinese associates and foreign game studio associates. Looking ahead, management expects JVs’ yoy earnings growth will decline in H2E. ·Corporate income tax expenses fell 9% yoy in 24Q2E, mainly due to a high 23Q2 base on deferred income tax adjustments at a foreign subsidiary. Management expects the non-IFRS income tax rate will slip to 18-20% in 2024E (from 22% in 2023). Profitability expectations: ·DnF: Mobile a key catalyst: our previous report had stated that warming expectations of games growth and the revenue mix impact on gross margin could potentially raise market expectations of Tencent’s profitability (We expect a strong showing from Dungeon & Fighter: Mobile (DnF: Mobile) to drive an earnings upturn, 31 May 2024). As of 16 Aug 2024, BBG’s 2024E non-IFRS net profit is up 4% (equivalent to RMB8.8bn vs the 24Q2E preview; and it is up 6% (equivalent to RMB11.5bn) vs our previous report release. ·We see the potential for further BBG upward revisions and we believe two key attributes shape Tencent’s financials in H2E: (1) incremental business development would drive higher yoy growth in gross profit; (2) gaming revenue growth would continue to rise. 网络遊戏：2Q2024流水恢复较高增长，我们预计下半年收入增速继续提升 我们前期多篇报告明确提示遊戏增长开始提速，2Q2024公司网络遊戏收入同比增速恢复至9%，其中国内及海外遊戏收入同比增速均恢复至9%。2Q2024《王者榮耀》、《和平精英》流水均恢复同比增长，《地下城与勇士：起源》上线後IOS遊戏畅销榜排名维持前2（据七麦数据），国内遊戏总流水增速超过收入增速。海外方面，2Q2024《荒野乱斗》平均日活创历史新高，流水同比增长超过10倍。截止2Q2024公司流动负债-递延收入余额同比+15%，我们预计随流水逐步确认，公司遊戏收入增速将在下半年持续提升。 Online games: Q2E turnover resumed high growth; H2E revenue growth uptrend We have reiterated in previous reports our view that the games business has entered a growth cycle. Online game revenue recovered to 9% growth yoy in 24Q2E, with both China and foreign game revenues recovering to 9% yoy growth: ·Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite both resumed turnover yoy growth. ·DnF: Mobile perched post-launch in the top two spots in the iOS best-selling games list (according to Qimai.cn). ·China market: games turnover growth outpaced revenue growth. ·International market: Brawl Stars averaged DAU in 24Q2E, a record high, and turnover grew more than 10x yoy. ·Tencent’s current liabilities–deferred revenue balance increased 15% yoy in 24Q2E. We expect that as cash flow stabilizes, its gaming revenue growth will keep increasing in H2E. 网络广告：2Q2024收入同比+19%，广告业务发展路径或可提供增长韧性 2Q2024公司广告收入同比+19%，环比+13%，好於彭博预期；主要受视频号及长视频的收入增长驱动，部分被互联网服务行业广告主预算缩减以及移动联盟广告收入下降所抵消。2Q2024广告毛利同比+36%，毛利率继续提升至56%。当前公司广告业务战略方向清晰：1）推动技术升级带动转化率提升；2）提升微信广告组合内闭环广告比例；3）逐步释放更多广告库存。我们预计公司广告业务将在宏观环境波动下具备更强韧性。 Online ads: Q2E revenue up 19%; ad development could provide growth elasticity Revenue drivers: advertising revenue rose 19% yoy and 13% qoq in 24Q2E, better than BBG. This was mainly driven by video accounts and long videos, and partially offset by shrinking advertiser budgets in internet services and lower advertising revenue from mobile affiliates. Profitability profile: advertising gross profit rose 36% yoy in 24Q2E and gross margin improved to 56%. We expect Tencent’s advertising growth will gain elasticity in the face of a volatile macro environment. Its strategic roadmap has clearcut goals: ·Push technological upgrades to boost conversion rates; ·Expand the proportion of closed-loop advertising in the WeChat portfolio; ·Gradually release more ad inventory. FBS：宏观消费环境导致金融科技服务收入短期降速 2Q2024公司金融科技及企业服务收入同比+4%，环比-4%，低於彭博预期。二季度金融科技服务收入同比增速放缓至低个位数，商业支付收入增速进一步放缓反映消费支出变化，同时公司加强风险管控措施导致消费贷款收入下降。二季度企业服务收入实现十几个点的同比增速，受益於云服务收入增长（包括企业微信商业化提升），以及视频号商家技术服务费增长。 FBS: macro consumer market factors dampened Q2E fintech service revenue Fintech and business service (FBS) revenue came in worse than BBG as it rose 4% yoy and fell 4% qoq in 24Q2E: ·Fintech services revenue growth slowed to a low-single-digit yoy in Q2E, while commercial payment revenue growth slowed as a reflection of consumer spending changes and Tencent strengthened risk control measures, which reduced consumer loan income. ·Business services revenue grew at a teen rate in Q2E, driven by cloud services (including WeCom monetization) and merchant video accounts’ tech service fees. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议： 公司高毛利率的增量业务奠定了毛利率持续提升基础，国内/海外遊戏的流水表现隐含下半年遊戏收入环比加速。我们上调2024-2026年预测Non-IFRS归母净利润至2178/2517/2786亿元（原预测爲2091/2396/2691亿元），同比增速分别爲38%/16%/11%。截止2024/8/16，公司股价对应2024/2025/2026年预测PE分别爲15x/13x/12x，12个月彭博滚动前瞻PE低於5年来中位数1.4个标准差，处於8%的历史分位值。相对纳指12个月彭博前瞻PE低於5年来中位数1.7个标准差，处於6%历史分位值，估值处於相对低位。我们预计遊戏增长开始修复，叠加业绩後恢复回购，有助於改善估值约束。维持目标价476港元，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks Forecast: Tencent’s high-gross-margin incremental business could anchor a potential gross margin uptrend, while games turnover data in both the Chinese and international markets could accelerate qoq turnover growth in H2E. We raise our 2024/25/26E forecast for non-IFRS net profit to RMB217.8bn/251.7bn/278.6bn (previously RMB209.1bn/239.6bn/ 269.1bn), up 38%/16%/11%. Valuation: Tencent’s valuation appears to be relatively low. The stock is trading at 2024/25/26E PE of 15x/13x/12x as of 16 Aug 2024. The Bloomberg 12M forward PE is 1.4 std dev below the 5-year median and within the 8th historical percentile; relative to Nasdaq, the Bloomberg 12M forward PE is 1.7 std dev below the 5-year median and within the 6th historical percentile. We expect gaming growth will start to recover and the resumption of share repurchase post-results could ease the current valuation overhang. We maintain our HKD476 target price and our BUY rating. 风险提示：宏观经济增长不确定性；公司新遊戏上线存在不确定性；AI技术商业化节奏慢於预期。 Risks include: macroeconomic growth uncertainties; new game launch uncertainties; and a slower-than-expected pace of AI technology monetization. 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