京東集團-SW: 24Q2業績點評:盈利端改善明顯,堅持用戶體驗後勁顯現

（以下内容从天风国际证券《京東集團-SW: 24Q2業績點評:盈利端改善明顯,堅持用戶體驗後勁顯現》研报附件原文摘录）
　　JD.com (9618 HK) 24Q2业绩点评：盈利端改善明显，坚持用户体验後劲显现 24Q2E review: profitability improvement stabilizes; emerging edge on user experience enhancements BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 事件：北京时间2024年8月15日，京东集团（9618.SW）发布2024年第二季度业绩报告。2024年第二季度，公司实现营业收入2914亿元，同比增长1.2%；其中，商品收入2339亿元，同比基本持平；服务收入575亿元，同比增长6.3%。 从费用端来看，2024年第二季度研发/销售/管理/履约费用率分别爲1.44%/4.07%/0.73%/5.91%，23年同期爲1.41%/ 3.84%/0.82%/5.79%，分别变化+0.03/+0.23/-0.09/+0.12pct。利润端表现超预期：2024年第二季度Non-GAAP净利润爲145亿元，同比增长69.0%，Non-GAAP净利润率首次达到5%，同比优化2.0pct。公司加码股东回报，回购稳步推进：年初至2024年8月15日期间，公司回购共计6800万股ADS，总额爲21亿美元，回购的股份总数约爲其截至2024年3月31日流通在外普通股的4.5%。今年上半年京东通过派息和回购总共合计约45亿美金。运营数据方面，公司聚焦长期供应链能力的完善和用户体验的提升。2024年二季度，京东供应链基数设施资产规模达1560亿元，同比增长11%。季度活跃用户数、用户购物频次继续保持双位数增长。 24Q2E non-GAAP net profit jumped 69% yoy with unprecedented 5% net margin Revenue: JD.com recently released unaudited results for 24Q2E with net revenue at RMB291.4bn, up 1.2% yoy, comprising: ·Merchandise revenue of RMB233.9bn, basically flat yoy; while ·Services generated RMB57.5bn, up 6.3% yoy. Expense ratios: R&D 1.44% (up 0.03ppt yoy); sales 4.07% (up 0.23ppt); administrative 0.73% (down 0.09ppt); and compliance 5.91% (up 0.12ppt). Profitability: non-GAAP net profit surpassed expectations at RMB14.5bn, up 69.0% yoy; with non-GAAP net margin expanding 2.0ppt yoy to reach 5% for the first time. Buybacks and dividends: JD increased shareholder returns and continued with share repurchases, buying back 68m ADS for a total of USD2.1bn in the year through 15 Aug 2024, which represents about 4.5% of common shares outstanding as of 31 March 2024. JD.com forked out USD4.5bn in total on both dividend payments and share repurchases in 24H1. Operations: the company boosted supply chain capabilities for the long term to improve the user experience: ·Supply chain facility assets amounted to RMB156bn in 24Q2E, up 11% yoy. ·Quarterly active users and user purchase frequency maintain double-digit growth. 京东零售：大商超品类高速增长，商家生态持续优化 2024年第二季度，京东零售收入达2571亿元，同比增长1.5%，超市场预期；经营利润达101.08亿元，同比增加3.9%，表现好於市场预期。分品类来看，1）电子产品及家用电器品类收入1450.61亿元，同比下滑4.6%。上半年以来，京东已与20多个省市合力推动家电家居以旧换新，京东618期间带动超700个品牌成交额同比增长超100%。我们认爲，随着以旧换新政策落地释放存量需求，公司带电品类有望持续获取市场份额。2）日用百货品类收入888亿元，同比提升8.7%，高於行业平均水平，品类结构更加均衡。同时，公司不断优化商家生态的运营效率和成本。2024年第二季度，京东新增第三方商家数量环比一季度提升46%，京东“春晓计划”上半年已升级AI开店等32条扶持举措，助力第三方商家增长提效。2024年第二季度，公司大商超类实现GMV双位数增长，有望成爲集团增长的关键引擎。运营方面，1）AI助力商家提质增效。AIGC内容生成平台已帮助 14万 第三方商家将店铺运营制作效率提升 90% 以上。2）用户体验构筑三方商家核心竞争力。二季度，公司通过规模效应和采购效率持续提升，在保证质量的前提下，爲用户带来天天低价。京东百亿补贴在二季度上线美妆加赠之後，8月进一步加大力度，投入超30亿元聚焦美妆全品类，并其表示上不封顶。在生态繁榮的带动下，公司二季度用户数稳健增长，用户参与度继续向好。我们认爲，生态建设的完善有望进一步降低获客成本，用户体验提升或驱动订单量、活跃用户数增长，从而实现业绩正循环。 Retail: large supermarket business on the rise; firming merchant ecosystem JD.com’s retail revenue reached RMB257.1bn in 24Q2E, up 1.5% yoy and surpassing market expectations. Operating profit came in better than the market had expected at RMB10.11bn, up 3.9% yoy. A product category breakdown shows: ·Electronic products and household appliances brought in RMB145.06bn in revenue, down 4.6% yoy. JD worked with more than 20 provinces and cities to promote home appliance trade-ins from H1 onward. During the 618 promotions, more than 700 brands grew turnover by over 100% yoy. We believe JD’s electrical products will increase market share as its trade-in policy drives up demand and helps digests inventories. ·Daily necessities: on a better product mix, revenue grew 8.7% yoy to RMB88.8bn, outperforming the industry average. 3P merchants: JD drilled down merchant ecosystem costs and tightened their operational efficiency in 24Q2. The number of new third-party merchants increased 46% qoq in H1 as JD upgraded 32 merchant support measures under its Spring Dawn program, such as AI-aided store openings, to drive their growth with better efficiency. Supermarkets: JD’s supermarkets division effected double-digit GMV growth in 24Q2E and we expect the business will become a major growth engine for the company. Operational metrics: ·Merchants: AI tools help merchants improve quality and efficiency. The AIGC content generation platform helped 140,000 3P merchants raise efficiencies in their store operations and improved productivity by more than 90%. ·User experience enhancement adds to the core competitiveness of JD’s 3P merchants. The company raised scale effects and procurement efficiency in Q2, which enabled it to offer users low prices every day while retaining its quality goods premise. After launching the beauty and cosmetics gift program under the RMB10bn subsidy plan in Q2, JD stepped up efforts in August by investing more than RMB3bn to increase coverage to all beauty categories without limits. The booming ecosystem saw user numbers rising steadily in Q2 and user engagement increased. We believe the ecosystem buildout will keep drilling down customer acquisition cost. We reckon user experience enhancements will drive growth in orders and active users toward a healthy profit cycle. 京东物流：收入超市场预期，供应链保持全球领先优势 2024年第二季度，京东物流收入达442亿元，同比增长7.7%；经营利润爲21.83亿元，高於市场预期的9.09亿元。截至二季度，京东供应链基础设施资产规模达1560亿元，同比增长11%。在全球已拥有近100个保税仓库、直邮仓库和海外仓库，京东快递国际业务最快3日可送达欧美主要国家，ochama在荷兰推出小时达，保持供应链全球领先优势。我们认爲，随着公司全球供应链网络的完善，以一站式服务助力中国品牌出海，外部一体化供应链客户数量或稳步提升。 Logistics: revenue trumps expectations; supply chain sustains global leadership JD Logistics generated revenue of RMB44.2bn in 24Q2E, up 7.7% yoy, while operating profit was RMB2.18bn, much better than the market’s RMB909m expectation. Supply chain infrastructure assets amounted to RMB156bn in Q2E, up 11% yoy. ·JD Express has nearly 100 bonded warehouses, direct mail warehouses and foreign warehouses around the world, which allows it to deliver to major European and US regions within 3 days. ·Ochama launched a 1-hour delivery service in the Netherlands and maintained its global supply chain edge. As JD’s global supply chain network and one-stop services bring Chinese brands to international markets, we believe integrated external supply chain customer numbers will increase steadily. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：我们认爲，随着24全年整体消费稳中向好，公司各品类增长有望重回健康增速，公司核心带电品类有望持续获得市场份额，商超品类重回良性增长。同时，考虑到盈利端改善明显，坚持用户体验後劲显现，我们预计京东2024-2026年收入爲11,510 /12,549 /13,183亿元（前值分别爲11,527/ 12,567/13,187亿元），同比增长6.1% / 9.0% / 5.1%；调整2024-2026年归属股东净利润（Non-GAAP）分别爲475 /506 /519亿元（前值分别爲373/427/446亿元）。长期来看，IP和3P全盘统筹与公司推进的价格竞争力策略协同，叠加下沉策略不断推进获客，我们长期持续看好公司供应链和物流核心能力的发展潜力，维持“买入”评级。 Valuation and risks As total consumption growth stabilizes in 2024E, we believe JD will resume a healthy growth profile across the various product categories. We expect the core electrical products business will gain market share and supermarkets will return to healthy growth. In view of visible profitability improvements and emerging user experience effects, we tweak our forecast to revenue of RMB1.15tr/1.25tr/1.32tr in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB1.15tr/1.26tr/1.32tr), up 6.1/9.0/5.1%; with adjusted non-GAAP net profit at RMB47.5bn/50.6bn/51.9bn (previously RMB37.3bn/42.7bn/44.6bn). For the long term, we expect JD will synergize competitive pricing and lower-tier-city penetration strategies in both the 1P and 3P businesses to boost customer acquisitions. We remain bullish about long-term growth prospects based on its core supply chain and logistics strength. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：政策监管风险；电商行业竞争加剧；海外上市监管政策风险；业绩预测或与实际值存在差异，请以公司公告爲准。 Risks include: policy and regulatory risks; intensifying ecommerce competition; and regulatory risks for foreign-listed stocks. Note: our forecasts are only for reference and subject to the release of the company’s actual financial results. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、连结、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本档及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本档或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源於天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本档，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本档所引用之资料或资料可能得自协力厂商，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对协力厂商所提供资料或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本档所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本档中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本档并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全瞭解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及後果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日後的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本档的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本档的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

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